10% probability of an extinction event
On Ones and Tooze’s show, Cameron Abadi notes he often sees a 10% extinction probability cited and questions how it’s calculated and why such apocalyptic risk might perversely boost AI firms’ market value despite the chance of total loss 1. Adam Tooze argues that if insiders acknowledge a 10% probability of extinction, a reasonable response would be to stop development, but market rationality can still price assets with a non-trivial disaster probability against extraordinary upside scenarios 1. Tooze also raises legal-regulatory concerns: catastrophic, irreversible harms defy ex-post compensation, liability sizing could push risks onto the U.S. government’s balance sheet, and current reporting by frontier labs is not robust 1.
From the window to Sep 23, 05:30 ET — this window's take is still to be written.
Where the voices land
Nobody took a position this week.
Mentions
0 this weekStories it travels in
i
The stories
- ○ a voice, on the left
- ◌ a voice raising half of these
- ● a subject, on the right, under its story
- ⌒ a line is a voice raising a subject — thicker, more items; colour is the story
The stories this entity travels in: on the right, each story with the subjects seen alongside it; on the left, the voices that raised them, and a line for every subject a voice raised, bundled by story. Tap a voice to light everything it raises, a subject for who raised it, a story for its own lines. The crumb goes back.
Who brings it up
Nobody in this window.
See what your own voices say about 10% probability of an extinction event, every morning.
Start a desk