234 spread
On MacroVoices’ show, Harley Bassman said the 10-year breakeven inflation rate has averaged about 235 bps over four years and had just closed at a 234 spread, which he reads as the market not being concerned about inflation; he argues the real issue is trust in fiscal and monetary authorities amid a large deficit and rising rates 1. Erik Townsend challenged whether the 234 signal might be distorted by CPI’s limitations in TIPS, despite narratives showing strong inflation concern 1. Bassman also linked a roughly 110 bp mortgage spread over Treasuries to higher rate volatility and a flattening/inverting yield curve increasing negative convexity, warning mortgage market widening could increasingly affect broader fixed income 1.
From the window to Sep 23, 05:30 ET — this window's take is still to be written.
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The stories
- ○ a voice, on the left
- ◌ a voice raising half of these
- ● a subject, on the right, under its story
- ⌒ a line is a voice raising a subject — thicker, more items; colour is the story
The stories this entity travels in: on the right, each story with the subjects seen alongside it; on the left, the voices that raised them, and a line for every subject a voice raised, bundled by story. Tap a voice to light everything it raises, a subject for who raised it, a story for its own lines. The crumb goes back.
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