25 basis point
Discussion of a 25 basis point hike was sharply divided between declining near-term odds and expectations of renewed tightening later in the year. Dan Nathan said the October hike probability had fallen from about 75% to roughly 20%, while Fawad Razaqzada described markets as expecting a December hike followed by further tightening, though he considered that path too aggressive. 12 David Lin cited only a 17% October probability and linked the debate to elevated Treasury yields and recession risks. 3
From the window to Oct 11, 05:30 ET — this window's take is still to be written.
Where the voices land
Nobody took a position this week.
Mentions
4 this weekStories it travels in
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The stories
- ○ a voice, on the left
- ◌ a voice raising half of these
- ● a subject, on the right, under its story
- ⌒ a line is a voice raising a subject — thicker, more items; colour is the story
The stories this entity travels in: on the right, each story with the subjects seen alongside it; on the left, the voices that raised them, and a line for every subject a voice raised, bundled by story. Tap a voice to light everything it raises, a subject for who raised it, a story for its own lines. The crumb goes back.
Who brings it up
- David Lin 2 mentions
- Peter Boockvar 1 mention
- John Feneck 1 mention
- Dan Nathan 1 mention
- Mike McGlone 1 mention
- Josh Linville 1 mention
- Fawad Razaqzada 1 mention
See what your own voices say about 25 basis point, every morning.
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