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Arthur Hayes

This week · 7 items
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Voice · person

This week · spoke in 7 items · 8 topics

Oct 8 → Oct 15, 05:30 ET · Last update Oct 12, 02:36 ET (for the window to Oct 11, 05:30)

Earlier: September 2026 · August 2026

Expectant

Arthur Hayes focused chiefly on crypto-market psychology, arguing that major bull runs begin by overcoming significant worries, including what he termed 2026 AI-encryption fear, before concluding that money printing would drive prices higher 2. He also flagged a negative signal for the Anthropic IPO 3 and promoted or acknowledged an AMA, alongside a general invitation tied to making money 45.

From the window to Oct 11, 05:30 ET — this window's take is still to be written.

On the record

last 90 days · 17 positions
Federal Reserve System +1.5 · 2AI -1.0 · 2FLOP tokens +2.0 · 1DeFi +2.0 · 1yen +2.0 · 1financial asset +2.0 · 1financial markets +1.0 · 1OpenAI, L.P. -1.0 · 1

Latest positions

  • AHArthur HayesSharply worsening on France Hayes says France is in a meltdown, its prospects deteriorating sharply. “France is melting down before our eyes.” Open the post France is melting down before our eyes. OAT vs. … · 23 Sept
  • AHArthur HayesBearish on OAT Hayes implies French OATs are under stress, with the OAT-Bund spread at 2011 crisis levels. “OAT vs. BUND spread is at 2011 Euro Crisis levels.” Open the post France is melting down before our eyes. OAT vs. … · 23 Sept
  • AHArthur HayesBearish on AI Hayes says the market doesn't want enough of the AI being sold at current prices, only at the far cheaper China price. “the market doesn’t want enough of the AI they are selling at its current price. To be specific, the market loves AI, but at the China price, which is 1/100th as expensive.” Open the post Check out my new essay "Safety First". Trump ha… · 21 Sept
  • AHArthur HayesBearish on Anthropic PBC Hayes suspects Anthropic's revenue growth is slowing and its unit economics are poor, ahead of a delayed IPO. “Is that hockey stick growth of annualized revenue they allude to in press release after press release slowing down?” Open the post Check out my new essay "Safety First". Trump ha… · 21 Sept
  • AHArthur HayesBearish on OpenAI, L.P. Hayes argues OpenAI's 'Safety First' slowdown is driven by weak demand for its AI at current prices, not ethics. “I believe that Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX’s pronouncement that Safety First guides them to slow down development of AGI is not driven by any concern for the wellbeing of unenlightened humans” Open the post Check out my new essay "Safety First". Trump ha… · 21 Sept
  • AHArthur HayesHawkish on Federal Reserve System Hayes frames the Fed as hiking, and argues that hiking in this environment is stimulative rather than restrictive. “Thots on the Fed hike: Hiking with elevated levels of govt debt it is stimulative.” Open the post Thots on the Fed hike: Hiking with elevated lev… · 16 Sept
  • AHArthur HayesRisk rising sharply on AI debt AI debt held by insurers will go bad once there is no longer a buyer of compute, forcing a Fed bailout. “Fed prints money to bail out insurers who hold AI debt that went bad bc there was no longer a buyer of compute” Open the post AI safety first: Either the USG assumes Anthrop… · 13 Sept
  • AHArthur HayesStrongly for on Federal Reserve System Either the US government or the Fed will end up printing money to absorb the AI compute and debt problem. “Choose one, both require printed money” Open the post AI safety first: Either the USG assumes Anthrop… · 13 Sept
  • AHArthur HayesBearish on AI The AI buildout depends on a buyer of compute that may disappear, leaving the sector's financing to go bad. “AI debt that went bad bc there was no longer a buyer of compute” Open the post AI safety first: Either the USG assumes Anthrop… · 13 Sept
  • AHArthur HayesStrongly bearish on euro Hayes expects the euro to fall hard against the yen. “Euro fucking yen, get DOWN!” Open the post Euro fucking yen, get DOWN! https://t.co/hY2n1k5… · 7 Sept
  • AHArthur HayesStrongly bullish on yen Hayes expects the yen to surge against the euro. “Euro fucking yen, get DOWN!” Open the post Euro fucking yen, get DOWN! https://t.co/hY2n1k5… · 7 Sept
  • AHArthur HayesStrongly bullish on DeFi Hayes expects another DeFi run, recalling profits from DeFi summer and calling UNI his favourite. “Time to run it back turbo. I made a nice bag on the initial pump during DeFi summer back in the day.” Open the post Time to run it back turbo. I made a nice bag on … · 5 Sept

Their output

7 this week
Wed 7Wed 14 · 3Thu 15

Stories it travels in

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The stories

  • ○ a voice, on the left
  • ◌ a voice raising half of these
  • ● a subject, on the right, under its story
  • ⌒ a line is a voice raising a subject — thicker, more items; colour is the story

The stories this entity travels in: on the right, each story with the subjects seen alongside it; on the left, the voices that raised them, and a line for every subject a voice raised, bundled by story. Tap a voice to light everything it raises, a subject for who raised it, a story for its own lines. The crumb goes back.

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