Conks

Latest positions

• COConksImproving on European Union Expects the EU to strengthen whenever its collapse is predicted. “the EU gets stronger anytime its collapse is predicted” Open the post the EU gets stronger anytime its collapse is pre… · 5 Oct
• COConksBullish on USTs Conks expects UST yields to keep ascending, with no plumbing or Fed bid to cap them. “won’t stop the “fire” of ascending yields” Open the post 🥷 A LARGER "TREASURY-FED BASIS" a rising long-… · 11 Sept
• COConksAgainst on U.S. Department of the Treasury Office of Debt Management Conks argues buybacks are counterproductive, widening the Fed-Treasury basis rather than containing yields. “ironically, buybacks widen the Fed-Treasury basis by removing bonds the Fed would need to buy” Open the post 🥷 A LARGER "TREASURY-FED BASIS" a rising long-… · 11 Sept
• COConksBullish on coupon issuance Coupon issuance cannot be lowered given skyrocketing government financing needs, so it stays high. “lowering coupon issuance is also a no-no when government financing needs skyrocket” Open the post 🥷 A LARGER "TREASURY-FED BASIS" a rising long-… · 11 Sept
• COConksRisk rising on UST market Conks sees the pain threshold for Fed intervention rising, meaning yields can reprice far higher without a state bid. “the pain threshold for intervention is higher, meaning yields can reprice at much greater levels without a state bid emerging” Open the post 🥷 A LARGER "TREASURY-FED BASIS" a rising long-… · 11 Sept
• COConksHawkish on Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System The Fed cannot talk down the long end by hinting at the end of a hiking cycle, and intervention is unlikely without a major crisis. “the Fed Chair (especially the incumbent) can’t talk down the long end by hinting at the end of a hiking cycle” Open the post 🥷 A LARGER "TREASURY-FED BASIS" a rising long-… · 11 Sept
• COConksRisk rising sharply on deflation Targeting 0% inflation would risk constantly plunging the economy into deflation. “targeting 0% inflation was impractical because it risked constantly plunging the economy into deflation” Open the post targeting 0% inflation was impractical because i… · 8 Sept
• COConksBullish on USTs If supply concerns emerge, UST yields will drift higher, and fundamentals are not rosy for bonds either. “if supply concerns do emerge, it will help UST yields drift higher” Open the post 🥷 ”AI BONDS” AND UST YIELDS the market continu… · 7 Sept
• COConksBearish on AI bonds AI bond supply is the least of bond bulls' concerns, and any impact on yields would be temporary. “IG issuance should be the least of bond bulls’ concerns, but if “AI bonds” do impact yields, it will likely be temporary” Open the post 🥷 ”AI BONDS” AND UST YIELDS the market continu… · 7 Sept
• COConksBearish on bonds Fundamental drivers are not rosy for bonds once supply concerns fade. “the market will have to return to fundamental drivers, which aren’t rosy for bonds either” Open the post 🥷 ”AI BONDS” AND UST YIELDS the market continu… · 7 Sept
• COConksRisk rising on U.S. Treasury market The UST market's shift to a price-sensitive private investor base means higher yields will be demanded if the macro warrants repricing. “a more price-sensitive investor base will inevitably request higher yields if they believe the macro warrants a repricing” Open the post 🥷 ”AI BONDS” AND UST YIELDS the market continu… · 7 Sept
• COConksStrongly bullish on swaps Conks remains bullish on swap spreads and expects swap spread wideners to keep widening and outperform long bonds. Open the post 🥷 POST BUYBACK MANIA after the Treasury buyba… · 6 Sept