DP
Dario Perkins
Sceptical
Dario Perkins focused on market narratives around bond yields, duration and fiscal dominance. He also discussed the AI investment case, Chinese car prices and reactions to technology and economic commentary, often with a sceptical or humorous tone.1345791011
On the record
last 90 days · 26 positionsTheir calls
✓ 2✗ 0 2 settled · 1 still open
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✓ Called it
Fed funds target range, upper bound higher · Federal Reserve System
“Perkins expects the Fed to hike rates, largely out of fear of the market's reaction to inaction.” — their words, paraphrased · said Sep 15 · settled Sep 17 the post ↗
It did: Fed funds target range, upper bound 4.00% on Sep 17.
The chart
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✓ Called it
Fed funds target range, upper bound higher · Federal Reserve System
“Perkins argues a single 25bp hike would settle the Fed credibility and independence debate, implying a hawkish path.” — their words, paraphrased · said Sep 3 · settled Sep 17 the post ↗
It did: Fed funds target range, upper bound 4.00% on Sep 17.
The chart
Still open
- ○ Open Fed funds target range, upper bound higher by Apr 2 · Federal Reserve System “Expects the Fed to hike too much at some point in the next 18 months.” — their words, paraphrased · said Oct 2 · by Apr 2, 2028 the post ↗ Now 4.00% (Oct 15).
Read from their words, checked against market data, approved by a person. Misses show like hits.
Federal Reserve System +1.3 · 7bonds +0.3 · 3Bank of England -1.0 · 2AI -1.5 · 2Federal Open Market Committee +2.0 · 1U.S. Department of the Treasury +2.0 · 1Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System +2.0 · 1central banks +1.0 · 1
Latest positions
- DPDario PerkinsBullish on non-tech Expects pent-up non-tech demand to be the basis of an eventual recovery. “Think of all that pent up non-tech demand. Not saying it would prevent a downturn, but it is the basis of an eventual recovery” Open the post People are so focused on what an AI crash might … · 15 Oct
- DPDario PerkinsSharply worsening on French Expects France's prospects to deteriorate, exposed by rising US yields. “Rising US yields are like the tide going out - you quickly discover who has been swimming naked. The French” Open the post Rising US yields are like the tide going out - y… · 2 Oct
- DPDario PerkinsStrongly hawkish on Federal Reserve System Expects the Fed to hike too much at some point in the next 18 months. “At some point in the next 18 months, the Fed is going to hike too much” Open the post At some point in the next 18 months, the Fed is … · 2 Oct
- DPDario PerkinsStrongly bearish on AI Expects the AI bubble to burst within the next 18 months. “the AI bubble will burst” Open the post At some point in the next 18 months, the Fed is … · 2 Oct
- DPDario PerkinsStrongly bullish on U.S. Department of the Treasury Expects Treasury yields to rise so fast that the Fed has to do temporary QE to protect financial stability. “Best case, yields rise so fast that Fed has to do temporary QE to protect financial stability” Open the post A Treasury-Fed accord is where the Fed surrender… · 2 Oct
- DPDario PerkinsAgainst on Federal Reserve System Opposes the idea of a Treasury-Fed accord in which the Fed surrenders its inflation target to cap bond yields. “A Treasury-Fed accord is where the Fed surrenders its inflation target to cap bond yields instead. Won't happen.” Open the post A Treasury-Fed accord is where the Fed surrender… · 2 Oct
- DPDario PerkinsAgainst on Bank of England Perkins argues the BoE is continuing QT for appearances' sake and dodging blame by pushing the problem onto the Treasury. Open the post Its not hard. The BoE likes QT because it makes … · 18 Sept
- DPDario PerkinsBullish on bills Perkins expects a large increase in bill issuance by the Treasury. “fund it by issuing a tonne of bills” Open the post Its not hard. The BoE likes QT because it makes … · 18 Sept
- DPDario PerkinsAgainst on HM Treasury Perkins expects the Treasury to take on the BoE's problem by issuing a large amount of bills, a move he frames as a dodge rather than a fix. “it has handed the problem to the Treasury, which will now presumably do a Bessent and fund it by issuing a tonne of bills” Open the post Its not hard. The BoE likes QT because it makes … · 18 Sept
- DPDario PerkinsBullish on gilts Perkins expects people to buy gilts initially, though he suggests the rally will fade once they see QT was not the cause of rising yields. “People will get excited and buy gilts, until they realize that QT wasn't the reason yields were rising” Open the post Its not hard. The BoE likes QT because it makes … · 18 Sept
- DPDario PerkinsStrongly hawkish on Federal Reserve System Perkins expects the Fed to hike on a quarterly path, with at least 50bps and likely more. Open the post My guess is that the Fed just started on a quart… · 16 Sept
- DPDario PerkinsRising on jobs market Perkins expects the jobs market to rebound, which will determine how far the Fed hikes. “the terminal rate will be decided by how far the jobs market rebounds” Open the post My guess is that the Fed just started on a quart… · 16 Sept
Their output
11 this weekWed 7Tue 13 · 4Thu 15
Stories it travels in
i
The stories
- ○ a voice, on the left
- ◌ a voice raising half of these
- ● a subject, on the right, under its story
- ⌒ a line is a voice raising a subject — thicker, more items; colour is the story
The stories this entity travels in: on the right, each story with the subjects seen alongside it; on the left, the voices that raised them, and a line for every subject a voice raised, bundled by story. Tap a voice to light everything it raises, a subject for who raised it, a story for its own lines. The crumb goes back.
Who brings it up
Nobody in this window.
What they talk about
- GlobalData.TSLombard 1 item
- Italy 1 item
- AI 1 item
- 5.59 1 item
- Paul Krugman 1 item
- US 1 item
- Gavin Baker 1 item
- 5.87 1 item
See what your own voices say about Dario Perkins, every morning.
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