Evan

Latest positions

• EVEvanLow risk on Red Sea Expects the Red Sea war risk to stay contained, with the conflict moving toward a truce rather than escalating. “Nothing will blow this fight in Yemen out of proportion. This is moving towards a truce” Open the post A tanker with no Saudi connection can cross the … · 8 Oct
• EVEvanStable on Saudi Arabia Expects the Saudi-Houthi conflict to remain within its current limits and build toward a truce rather than escalate. “Both sides have stayed inside those terms.” Open the post A tanker with no Saudi connection can cross the … · 8 Oct
• EVEvanStable on Pakistan Expects Pakistan's reported role in the Yemen conflict to remain a staged performance rather than a real escalation. “Pakistan's part looks most like a performance.” Open the post A tanker with no Saudi connection can cross the … · 8 Oct
• EVEvanStable on Bab al-Mandab Expects the Houthis to keep the Bab al-Mandab shipping lane open rather than close the strait. “The Houthis then said they had no plan to close the strait and were open to talks. They took the chip and left the shipping lane open.” Open the post The surrender headlines are noise. There is no c… · 5 Oct
• EVEvanSharply worsening on Israel Evan argues that Israel's founding project of expansion and regional primacy is becoming infeasible, and that normalization will ultimately unwind the state's existence. “On a long enough timeframe, normalization is what unwinds Israel's entire existence.” Open the post Many people treat geopolitics as a moral sorting… · 20 Sept
• EVEvanImproving on Iran Iran and its remnants are moving toward normalization with Israel, meaning the Axis posture is dead. “the Axis is dead, and that Iran and its extended remnants, are all taking steps towards normalization with Israel” Open the post You need to look at the order of moves, if you w… · 19 Sept
• EVEvanRisk easing on Yemen The Houthi expansion is not a threat; the coastal grab was permitted under an operating rule that keeps the lane open. “The Houthi expansion is not a threat.” Open the post You need to look at the order of moves, if you w… · 19 Sept
• EVEvanImproving on Israel Israel's regional position is improving as Iran and its allies move toward normalization with it. “Iran and its extended remnants, are all taking steps towards normalization with Israel. That’s the truth. And it’s coming.” Open the post You need to look at the order of moves, if you w… · 19 Sept
• EVEvanRisk easing on KSA Strikes on Saudi Arabia are optics with little material damage, not an attempt to collapse the Saudi state. “selective, high-visibility targets, lots of smoke, lots of political optics, little material damage” Open the post You need to look at the order of moves, if you w… · 19 Sept
• EVEvanBullish on Houthis Evan expects the Houthis to keep moving toward understandings with the US and away from their Axis posture, a trajectory he says is on track. “I said that the Houthis would have to go through a rebrand since last year. These events tell me that we are exactly on that trajectory.” Open the post Six days after my initial assessment, the Houthi… · 19 Sept
• EVEvanWorsening on Iran Evan sees Iran's influence over the Houthis eroding as the group seeks greater independence from Tehran. “the Houthi expansion is creating opportunities for separate agreements and greater independence from Iran” Open the post Six days after my initial assessment, the Houthi… · 19 Sept
• EVEvanWorsening on Saudi Arabia Evan expects Saudi Arabia to end up accommodating Houthi control after its appeals for US intervention fail, with Houthi pressure on the kingdom preserved. “Saudi appeals for American intervention was merely a stunt to prepare the public explanation for eventual accommodation” Open the post Six days after my initial assessment, the Houthi… · 19 Sept