Varied
Josh Linville hosted a broad set of StoneX market videos spanning metals, precious metals, currencies, rates, equities, energy, grains and soft commodities 12345678910121315161718192022232425262728. The substantive market views came from guests rather than Josh: they focused on shifting Fed expectations, elevated yields, technical levels, geopolitical risks and cross-asset downside or reversal risks 291317202223. Josh’s own turns are largely host introductions, questions and sign-offs, so the evidence does not show him advancing a distinct market view himself 192628.
From the window to Oct 7, 05:30 ET — this window's take is still to be written.
On the record
last 90 days · 11 positionsphosphate +0.3 · 3nitrogen +2.0 · 2potash +2.0 · 1China +2.0 · 1corn +1.0 · 1Trinidad -1.0 · 1inventories -1.0 · 1Strait of Hormuz -2.0 · 1
Latest positions
- JLJosh LinvilleVery high risk on Strait of Hormuz Sees vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz for urea and phosphate as gone, with little hope of returning short term. “any sort of vessel traffic that we might have seen for, let's say, like Urea or even for Phosphate is probably gone now” ▶ 2:25 Fertilizer Buyers Get More Urea, but Product Typ… · 7 Oct
- JLJosh LinvilleSharply improving on China Expects China's urea exports to rise to upwards of 10 million tons, far above the historical 5-5.5 million ton norm. “based on all the approvals that we've heard, we could see exports upwards of 10 million tons” ▶ 0:35 Fertilizer Buyers Get More Urea, but Product Typ… · 7 Oct
- JLJosh LinvilleStrongly bullish on nitrogen Expects nitrogen supply to stay very tight, with the Trinidad shutdown an additional indefinite loss. “It's already a world where nitrogen is already very, very tightly supplied. That's just a loss of another one.” ▶ 4:37 Fertilizer Buyers Get More Urea, but Product Typ… · 7 Oct
- JLJosh LinvilleWorsening on Trinidad Expects Trinidad's gas supplies not to return in a big or normal way, keeping the nitrogen plant shut. “we do not expect the gas supplies to return in a big way. We don't think they're going to return in a normal way” ▶ 3:33 Fertilizer Buyers Get More Urea, but Product Typ… · 7 Oct
- JLJosh LinvilleStrongly bearish on phosphate Phosphate prices are too high and are not justified even by $5-plus corn on the board. “I'm not sitting there saying that $5-plus corn on the board justifies it. It doesn't. It's too high price.” ▶ 6:26 What a Fertilizer Reserve Means for Farmers in a… · 29 Sept
- JLJosh LinvilleStrongly for on nitrogen The U.S. should build more nitrogen production and become an exporter of finished nitrogen fertilizer rather than rely on imports. “Build more production. Quit being reliant on the world. Quit being reliant on the imports.” ▶ 3:47 What a Fertilizer Reserve Means for Farmers in a… · 29 Sept
- JLJosh LinvilleStrongly for on phosphate The government should build long-term phosphate supply agreements with Norway, Saudi Arabia and Morocco. “the government, to me, needs to start going out and reaching out to places like Norway, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, and start building long-term supply agreements” ▶ 4:50 What a Fertilizer Reserve Means for Farmers in a… · 29 Sept
- JLJosh LinvilleFalling on inventories Fertilizer inventories started the season very low, with one of the lower carryouts, and remain snug. “we started this fertilizer very, very low on inventories, one of the lower carryouts” ▶ 6:26 What a Fertilizer Reserve Means for Farmers in a… · 29 Sept
- JLJosh LinvilleBullish on phosphate Fall phosphate demand is growing as grain prices rally, and late buyers will face significantly higher prices and just-in-time logistics costs. “You thought the price was bad before. It's significantly higher now.” ▶ 7:35 What a Fertilizer Reserve Means for Farmers in a… · 29 Sept
- JLJosh LinvilleStrongly for on potash Shoring up the trade agreement with Canada is the fastest-acting fix and should be done first. “if you shore up the trade agreement, get all that put to bed, potash goes from being calm to being a little bit more calm” ▶ 5:44 What a Fertilizer Reserve Means for Farmers in a… · 29 Sept
- JLJosh LinvilleBullish on corn Higher grain values are driving new fertilizer demand, with corn acreage talk shifting up toward 96-100 million acres. “you've seen a lot of people shift from a lower 90s, 2027 corn crop acreage. And now they're starting to talk 96, 98.” ▶ 6:26 What a Fertilizer Reserve Means for Farmers in a… · 29 Sept
Their output
33 this weekWed 7Thu 8 · 8Thu 15
Stories it travels in
i
The stories
- ○ a voice, on the left
- ◌ a voice raising half of these
- ● a subject, on the right, under its story
- ⌒ a line is a voice raising a subject — thicker, more items; colour is the story
The stories this entity travels in: on the right, each story with the subjects seen alongside it; on the left, the voices that raised them, and a line for every subject a voice raised, bundled by story. Tap a voice to light everything it raises, a subject for who raised it, a story for its own lines. The crumb goes back.
Who brings it up
- Fiona Cincotta 6 mentions
- Larissa Alvarez 2 mentions
- Raphael Bulascoschi 2 mentions
- Michael Boutros 2 mentions
- James Stanley 2 mentions
- David Scutt 2 mentions
- Fawad Razaqzada 2 mentions
- Bruno Santos 1 mention
What they talk about
- US 18 items
- StoneX Group Inc. 18 items
- Brazil 10 items
- Middle East 10 items
- China 9 items
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 8 items
- rate hike 7 items
- AI 7 items
See what your own voices say about Josh Linville, every morning.
Start a desk