Mohamed El-Erian focused heavily on rising sovereign yields, especially in the UK and Europe, and their implications for fiscal policy, bond markets and possible policy intervention 18192223. He also highlighted elevated and uncertain energy prices, the feedback loop between geopolitics, domestic politics and economics, and the risks of governments intervening repeatedly to influence market pricing 8111521. His period summary pointed to economic and financial dualism ahead of US inflation data, global releases and the IMF-World Bank meetings 5.
From the window to Oct 14, 05:30 ET — this window's take is still to be written.
On the record
last 90 days · 6 positionsLatest positions
- MEMohamed El-ErianBearish on US government bonds Expects the sell-off in US government bonds to persist, with elevated borrowing costs spreading pressure up the credit curve and across the broader economy. “if elevated borrowing costs persist, the pressure both migrates up the curve and spreads across the broader economy” Open the post Good morning. From the FT: "A sharp sell-off in … · 6 Oct
- MEMohamed El-ErianSharply improving on US El-Erian reads the latest US data as pointing to continued robust economic activity. “point to continued robust economic activity, solid labor market, and greater cost pressures” Open the post Today's US data releases, which come ahead of to… · 1 Oct
- MEMohamed El-ErianRising on jobs report Ahead of the jobs report, El-Erian expects it to confirm a solid labor market. “ahead of tomorrow's more comprehensive jobs report, point to continued robust economic activity, solid labor market” Open the post Today's US data releases, which come ahead of to… · 1 Oct
- MEMohamed El-ErianBullish on central banking El-Erian expects the Fed's task-force output and Warsh-led reforms to become a global blueprint, improving central banking practice worldwide. “It wouldn't surprise me if the output of the Federal Reserve’s five task forces, along with the broader reforms led by Kevin Warsh, becomes a global blueprint for central banking.” Open the post It wouldn't surprise me if the output of the Fed… · 24 Sept
- MEMohamed El-ErianHawkish on Federal Reserve System El-Erian sees the Fed's reform push, including Warsh's pushback on forward guidance, gaining traction abroad and reshaping the institution for the better. “Chair Warsh’s pushback against what “forward guidance” has devolved into is already gaining traction abroad.” Open the post It wouldn't surprise me if the output of the Fed… · 24 Sept
- MEMohamed El-ErianFor on inflation El-Erian argues that fighting inflation should rely on government supply-side and fiscal measures, not only central bank rate hikes. “central bank rate hikes should not be “the only game in town” when it comes to addressing today's inflation challenge” Open the post Via the @FT, my thoughts on why central bank rat… · 22 Sept
Their output
20 this weekStories it travels in
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The stories
- ○ a voice, on the left
- ◌ a voice raising half of these
- ● a subject, on the right, under its story
- ⌒ a line is a voice raising a subject — thicker, more items; colour is the story
The stories this entity travels in: on the right, each story with the subjects seen alongside it; on the left, the voices that raised them, and a line for every subject a voice raised, bundled by story. Tap a voice to light everything it raises, a subject for who raised it, a story for its own lines. The crumb goes back.
Who brings it up
Nobody in this window.
What they talk about
- US 8 items
- The Wall Street Journal 3 items
- inflation 2 items
- Financial Times 2 items
- International Monetary Fund 2 items
- sovereign spreads 1 item
- Theatre Royal Haymarket 1 item
- World Economic Outlook 1 item
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