Peter Boockvar discussed a sharp shift in bond-market expectations, with markets moving from anticipating rate cuts to potentially expecting hikes under Kevin Warsh, and argued that the market is leading the Fed rather than following it 2. He highlighted inflation pressures that higher policy rates may not address, especially AI-related data-centre construction 2. He also described a narrow, two-speed stock market, rising funding pressure for banks, and risks to consumers and loan books from higher refinancing costs 2. His other posts touched on a standoff between large-cap technology stocks and rising global interest rates 5, and taxation potentially reducing the activity being taxed 6.
From the window to Oct 10, 05:30 ET — this window's take is still to be written.
On the record
last 90 days · 11 positionsTheir calls
None settled yet · 1 open
Still open
- ○ Open Fed funds target range, upper bound higher by Dec 31 · Federal Open Market Committee “Expects the Fed to hike rates twice this year, with the market leading the Fed rather than the reverse.” — their words, paraphrased · said Oct 9 · by Dec 31, 2026 the episode ↗ Now 4.00% (Oct 15).
Read from their words, checked against market data, approved by a person. Misses show like hits.
Latest positions
- PBPeter BoockvarStrongly bullish on oil Expects crude oil prices to stay elevated for a while as the conflict drags on and barrels remain offline. “And that's going to keep prices elevated for a while.” ▶ 36:58 Bond Market Dominoes: The Path to 6% Rates with … · 9 Oct
- PBPeter BoockvarStrongly hawkish on Federal Open Market Committee Expects the Fed to hike rates twice this year, with the market leading the Fed rather than the reverse. “The bond market was pricing in two cuts. And instead, we're probably going to get two hikes.” ▶ 4:04 Bond Market Dominoes: The Path to 6% Rates with … · 9 Oct
- PBPeter BoockvarStrongly expensive on AI Thinks the AI capex portion is in a bubble, even though the technology itself will be beneficial. “is AI in a bubble or not? Like, I think the CapEx portion is” ▶ 17:54 Bond Market Dominoes: The Path to 6% Rates with … · 9 Oct
- PBPeter BoockvarStrongly bullish on crude Expects crude prices to remain elevated for a while given lost barrels and prolonged conflict. “And that's going to keep prices elevated for a while.” ▶ 36:58 Bond Market Dominoes: The Path to 6% Rates with … · 9 Oct
- PBPeter BoockvarSharply rising on interest rates Expects risk-free rates to keep rising, already pushing refinancing costs for companies and households sharply higher. “this rise in interest rates, in risk-free rates, is already impacting parts of the credit market” ▶ 13:33 Bond Market Dominoes: The Path to 6% Rates with … · 9 Oct
- PBPeter BoockvarSharply worsening on France Expects French yields to keep rising as investors push back on the country's excessive debt and deficits, with growth under 1%. “this recent gap up is all about their budget. It's all about many years of excessive spending” ▶ 6:53 Bond Market Dominoes: The Path to 6% Rates with … · 9 Oct
- PBPeter BoockvarWorsening on Italy Expects Italian yields to be dragged higher as investors extend scrutiny of French debt to other countries in the region. “what happens in european yields does flow through now into italian yields” ▶ 6:53 Bond Market Dominoes: The Path to 6% Rates with … · 9 Oct
- PBPeter BoockvarRising on interest rates Rates are back to a long-term normal after 15 years of abnormal, and the rate shock hits borrowers repricing debt at much higher levels. “To those who keep telling me that interest rates are just back to the long term normal, I agree but as it comes after 15 years of abnormal” Open the post To those who keep telling me that interest rates… · 28 Sept
- PBPeter BoockvarBearish on real estate Real estate operators face an ongoing rate shock as loans priced at 3% reprice at 8%, pressuring the sector. “Just imagine the real estate operator who priced a 3% loan five years ago and is repricing at 8% this year” Open the post To those who keep telling me that interest rates… · 28 Sept
- PBPeter BoockvarBearish on mortgage High mortgage rates have damaged household mobility, with many homeowners stuck at 3-4% rates choosing not to move. “We’ve of course seen the damage done to household mobility as many stick to their 3-4% mortgage rate and choose not to move.” Open the post To those who keep telling me that interest rates… · 28 Sept
- PBPeter BoockvarRisk rising on GenAI The market and economy's heavy dependence on GenAI capex is a concentration risk. “a stock market that is hugely hooked on GenAI and this CapEx spend” Open the post After seeing another robust GenAI led durable go… · 25 Sept
Their output
5 this weekStories it travels in
i
The stories
- ○ a voice, on the left
- ◌ a voice raising half of these
- ● a subject, on the right, under its story
- ⌒ a line is a voice raising a subject — thicker, more items; colour is the story
The stories this entity travels in: on the right, each story with the subjects seen alongside it; on the left, the voices that raised them, and a line for every subject a voice raised, bundled by story. Tap a voice to light everything it raises, a subject for who raised it, a story for its own lines. The crumb goes back.
Who brings it up
- Dan Nathan 4 mentions
- Guy Adami 1 mention
- jim iuorio 1 mention
- Deirdre Bosa 1 mention
- Caleb Silver 1 mention
- Adam Taggart 1 mention
What they talk about
- rate hike 1 item
- earnings growth 1 item
- e-commerce 1 item
- Amazon Web Services 1 item
- wealth management 1 item
- Space Exploration Technologies Corp. 1 item
- 25 basis point 1 item
- SPAC craze 1 item
See what your own voices say about Peter Boockvar, every morning.
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