Shanghai Macro Strategist

Nobody took a position in april 2026.

Latest positions

• SMShanghai Macro StrategistStrongly negative on Washington Washington's behavior is unreliable and unpredictable, making it a credibility liability. “In the absence of any reliable guarantees on Trump’s behavior, unpredictable moves out of Washington would only become a huge credibility liability” Open the post This is precisely the reason why Beijing is firm… · 22 Apr
• SMShanghai Macro StrategistFor on Beijing Beijing is right to refuse an active mediation role in the conflict, since Washington's unpredictability would make any mediator look bad. “This is precisely the reason why Beijing is firmly opposed to taking on an active mediation role in this conflict.” Open the post This is precisely the reason why Beijing is firm… · 22 Apr
• SMShanghai Macro StrategistBullish on AI The AI race is an arms race requiring enormous sustained capital and compute, favoring well-funded players. “The AI race is, in many ways, an arms race: it demands enormous, sustained capital and compute resources” Open the post I’ve long argued that the initial decision to ke… · 19 Apr
• SMShanghai Macro StrategistStrongly bullish on clean-tech China's clean-tech sector could emerge as a major beneficiary of the post-Iran-war energy security push. “China’s clean-tech sector could also emerge as a major beneficiary of this shift” Open the post One thing seems clear: energy security is set to… · 16 Apr
• SMShanghai Macro StrategistBullish on nuclear energy A revival of nuclear energy is likely in the aftermath of the Iran war. “a likely revival of nuclear energy” Open the post One thing seems clear: energy security is set to… · 16 Apr
• SMShanghai Macro StrategistBullish on trade surplus The push for energy security could drive China's trade surplus another leg higher. “it would not be surprising if the push for energy security ultimately translates into another leg higher in China’s trade surplus” Open the post One thing seems clear: energy security is set to… · 16 Apr
• SMShanghai Macro StrategistBullish on EV manufacturing China's entrenched dominance in EV manufacturing positions it to benefit from the energy security shift. “Given China’s entrenched dominance across global clean-tech supply chains and EV manufacturing” Open the post One thing seems clear: energy security is set to… · 16 Apr
• SMShanghai Macro StrategistBearish on Gulf Diversification away from Gulf oil and gas is expected after the Iran war. “Beyond diversification away from Gulf oil and gas” Open the post One thing seems clear: energy security is set to… · 16 Apr
• SMShanghai Macro StrategistStrongly against on US US chip-export controls on China are ineffective and will fail to hold back Chinese frontier models. “it is clear that US chip export controls are NOT working and WILL NOT work” Open the post Sebastian offers a calm and objective assessment… · 13 Apr
• SMShanghai Macro StrategistStrongly negative on inflation Rising inflation combined with central banks losing control of the long end of the curve is what puts countries in trouble. “They run into trouble when inflation is rising and central banks lose control of the long end of the curve.” Open the post Basic Econ 101: Countries don’t spend themselve… · 13 Apr
• SMShanghai Macro StrategistPositive on deflationary environment Countries do not go bankrupt in a deflationary environment; the real danger is rising inflation with central banks losing control of the long end. “Countries don’t spend themselves into bankruptcy in a deflationary environment.” Open the post Basic Econ 101: Countries don’t spend themselve… · 13 Apr
• SMShanghai Macro StrategistBearish on China China is unlikely to act as a catalyst for de-escalation in the Iran conflict and will stay cautious for now. “For now, China is unlikely to act as a catalyst for de-escalation” Open the post Will Beijing throw its weight behind Iran negoti… · 2 Apr