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Weston Nakamura

September 2026 · 12 items
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Voice · person

September 2026 · spoke in 12 items · 8 topics

Sep 1 → Oct 1, 05:30 ET

September 2026Live view →

On the record

last 30 days · 17 positions

Their calls

✓ 1✗ 2 3 settled in September 2026

✗✓✗

  • ✗ Missed US dollar / Japanese yen at or above 170.00 by Sep 30 · USDJPY “If a joint US-Japan intervention only moves the yen less than 1% and officials stop there, USDJPY heads to 170 by end of September.” — their words, paraphrased · said Sep 2 · settled Sep 30 the post ↗ It didn't: US dollar / Japanese yen 157.56 on Sep 30.
    The chart
    US dollar / Japanese yen: the call160170Aug 15Sep 15deadlinethe call · Sep 2 · up — If a joint US-Japan intervention only moves the yen less than 1% and officials stop there, USDJPY heads to 170 by end of September.
  • ✓ Called it Fed funds target range, upper bound higher by Sep 30 · Federal Reserve System “The Fed is expected to hike 25bp at its September meeting.” — their words, paraphrased · said Sep 16 · settled Sep 17 the post ↗ It did: Fed funds target range, upper bound 4.00% on Sep 17.
    The chart
    Fed funds target range, upper bound: the call3.80%3.90%4%Sep 1Sep 15 · Sep 16 · up — The Fed is expected to hike 25bp at its September meeting.
  • ✗ Missed US dollar / Japanese yen at or above 200.00 · USDJPY “USDJPY is on a self-reinforcing path higher, with 200+ paired with $200 crude.” — their words, paraphrased · said Mar 13 · settled Sep 11 the post ↗ It didn't: US dollar / Japanese yen 153.57 on Sep 11.
    The chart
    US dollar / Japanese yen: the call160180200Mar 1Jun 1Sep 1the call · Mar 13 · up — USDJPY is on a self-reinforcing path higher, with 200+ paired with $200 crude.

Read from their words, checked against market data, approved by a person. Misses show like hits.

Bank of Japan +0.2 · 5JPY -0.3 · 4USDJPY -0.7 · 3Ministry of Finance of Japan +1.0 · 2Federal Reserve System +1.0 · 1FX -1.0 · 1US yields -1.0 · 1

Latest positions

  • WNWeston NakamuraStrongly bearish on JPY Nakamura expects the yen to fall asymmetrically in the current setup, with BOJ hikes doing nothing to support it. “JPY asymmetrically↓ in current setup” Open the post 🇯🇵BOJ +25bps → 1.25% As per Bessent’s (oops so… · 17 Sept
  • WNWeston NakamuraAgainst on Bank of Japan Nakamura argues BOJ rate hikes are useless for the yen and questions Ueda's ability to deliver a 1.75-2% terminal rate. “so unconditionally useless is BOJ for JPY that Gov Ueda’s press confs now rely on a MOF yen-put to follow” Open the post 🇯🇵BOJ +25bps → 1.25% As per Bessent’s (oops so… · 17 Sept
  • WNWeston NakamuraFor on Ministry of Finance of Japan Nakamura expects the MOF to intervene again around the Silver Week holiday if needed. “Silver Week holiday next week - expect yentevention then if/as necessary” Open the post 🇯🇵BOJ +25bps → 1.25% As per Bessent’s (oops so… · 17 Sept
  • WNWeston NakamuraHawkish on Bank of Japan Nakamura notes the BOJ hiked 25bp to 1.25% and that Ueda must keep a 1.75-2% terminal rate by July 2027. “BOJ +25bps → 1.25%” Open the post 🇯🇵BOJ +25bps → 1.25% As per Bessent’s (oops so… · 17 Sept
  • WNWeston NakamuraStrongly bearish on JPY The yen keeps making new multi-decade lows and the Fed-BOJ policy spread no longer supports it, so weakness persists. “JPY continues making new multi decade lows” Open the post 🇺🇸FOMC +25bp & 🇯🇵BOJ +25bp 👆both expected … · 16 Sept
  • WNWeston NakamuraHawkish on Bank of Japan The BOJ is expected to hike 25bp at its September meeting. “🇯🇵BOJ +25bp 👆both expected” Open the post 🇺🇸FOMC +25bp & 🇯🇵BOJ +25bp 👆both expected … · 16 Sept
  • WNWeston NakamuraHawkish on Federal Reserve System The Fed is expected to hike 25bp at its September meeting. Open the post 🇺🇸FOMC +25bp & 🇯🇵BOJ +25bp 👆both expected … · 16 Sept
  • WNWeston NakamuraRisk rising on FX With the Fed hike offsetting the BOJ hike, pressure builds on Ueda and intervention risk in FX rises. “🇺🇸+25bp negates 🇯🇵+25bp = even more pressure on Ueda” Open the post 🇺🇸FOMC +25bp & 🇯🇵BOJ +25bp 👆both expected … · 16 Sept
  • WNWeston NakamuraBullish on JPY Nakamura expects the yen to keep strengthening, which would in turn pull US yields lower. Open the post Aug after 🇺🇸🇯🇵 “joint coordination”USDJPY & … · 7 Sept
  • WNWeston NakamuraBearish on US yields He sees a possible pause in the otherwise automatic rise in US yields, with a drop if yen strength persists. “may be an actual pause on otherwise auto-↑ yields” Open the post Aug after 🇺🇸🇯🇵 “joint coordination”USDJPY & … · 7 Sept
  • WNWeston NakamuraStrongly bearish on USDJPY Nakamura expects USDJPY to fall swiftly to 152 after breaking 155 support. Open the post Heads up - USDJPY breaks < 155 support (finally)… · 7 Sept
  • WNWeston NakamuraFor on Ministry of Finance of Japan Nakamura argues the MOF should aggressively sell USD now while momentum is on its side. “if MOF were “smart” they would carpet bomb living daylights out of USD right now WITH momentum” Open the post Heads up - USDJPY breaks < 155 support (finally)… · 7 Sept

Their output

12 in September 2026
Mon 31Thu 17 · 2Thu 1

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  • ◌ a voice raising half of these
  • ● a subject, on the right, under its story
  • ⌒ a line is a voice raising a subject — thicker, more items; colour is the story

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