The strongest EU-focused theme was a tougher trade and industrial-security posture toward China, alongside diversification from dependence on the US and Russia.
Discussion centred on EU trade and economic-security responses to China, including hybrid-car exports, organic chemicals and cable manufacturing. China presented an EU hybrid-car agreement as supporting export space and steady growth 10, while lithium futures fell after the reported limits on exports to the EU 11; Brad Setser argued that accelerating Chinese auto exports helped force a change in the EU’s trade paradigm 13. Other items covered EU energy ties with Russia 37, a possible UK-EU reset 6, and Canada’s effort to diversify away from the US under Mark Carney 517. The followed topic trade war received no direct attention in this evidence pool.
+813 voicesWhat happened
China said an EU deal on hybrid cars will ensure "export space and steady growth" for its companies.10
0 of 13Brad Setser argued the acceleration in China's auto exports was a big reason the EU changed its trade paradigm.13
1 of 13Russia's Novak reported Russia supplied energy worth $21.3 billion to the EU this year.3
0 of 13Show 1 moreShow fewer
Donald Trump defended easing restrictions on Russian diesel and claimed the EU paid Russia $250 billion for energy, a figure not independently verified.7
0 of 13“Europe cannot afford to lose its domestic cable manufacturing industry.”
Where they disagree
Interpretation of EU-China trade measures
Agreement supports Chinese exports10
China
Chinese auto exports forced EU shift13
1 voice
The desk
Brad Setser
The acceleration in China's auto exports this year has been stunning and is a big reason the EU felt compelled to change its trade paradigm.13
Jeffrey Currie ++
The episode discussed geopolitically driven risks to seabed cables and Europe's anti-dumping duties on Chinese cables to protect domestic manufacturers.2
Elisabeth Braw
Geopolitics is driving cable routing and the European Commission imposed anti-dumping duties on Chinese cables to protect European manufacturers from artificially low prices.2
Anthony Moreau
Canada is moving to reduce reliance on the U.S., with leaders pushing pipelines and domestic development, and I see Mark Carney's approach as positive.5
Ian Wagner
The shift in Canada's trade relationship with the U.S. feels real as leadership pursues development and sales away from the U.S. market when needed.5
John Feneck
We're positioned in gold, silver and critical minerals, and I believe North America must ramp up defense-metal production because reliance on others is no longer viable.17
The Kobeissi Letter
US seasonal hiring is off to a weak start, with announced September hiring the weakest since 2011 and year-to-date totals at near-decade lows.16
Walter Bloomberg
The UK and EU set a November 20 summit as Brexit reset momentum grows, potentially advancing cooperation on trade, energy, border controls and security.6
2 of this desk's 2 voices spoke
More from the desk
EU-China trade and industrial policyThe evidence described the EU as shifting its trade paradigm in response to rapidly rising Chinese auto exports. China said the EU hybrid-car agreement would preserve export space and steady growth for Chinese companies, whereas the market reaction recorded in the pool was a fall in Chinese lithium futures after limits on hybrid-car exports to the EU.
The evidence described the EU as shifting its trade paradigm in response to rapidly rising Chinese auto exports 13. China said the EU hybrid-car agreement would preserve export space and steady growth for Chinese companies 10, whereas the market reaction recorded in the pool was a fall in Chinese lithium futures after limits on hybrid-car exports to the EU 11.
Strategic dependencies and cable securityElisabeth Braw said geopolitics was increasingly determining seabed cable routes and that Chinese manufacturers’ low prices threatened European cable producers. She also said the European Commission imposed anti-dumping duties because Europe could not afford to lose domestic cable manufacturing.
Elisabeth Braw said geopolitics was increasingly determining seabed cable routes and that Chinese manufacturers’ low prices threatened European cable producers. She also said the European Commission imposed anti-dumping duties because Europe could not afford to lose domestic cable manufacturing 2.
Energy and UK-EU relationsRussia’s Novak was reported as saying Russia had supplied the EU with $21.3 billion of energy during the year. Trump claimed the EU had paid Russia $250 billion for energy, but the reported figure was not independently verified. Separately, a November 20 UK-EU summit was presented as an opportunity to expand cooperation on trade, energy, borders and security.
Russia’s Novak was reported as saying Russia had supplied the EU with $21.3 billion of energy during the year 3. Trump claimed the EU had paid Russia $250 billion for energy, but the reported figure was not independently verified 7. Separately, a November 20 UK-EU summit was presented as an opportunity to expand cooperation on trade, energy, borders and security 6.
Canada and North American diversificationAnthony Moreau and Ian Wagner described a shift in Canada toward developing mines, pipelines and markets outside the US, with Wagner linking it to deteriorating US-Canada trade relations. John Feneck argued that Canada and the US needed to build critical-minerals capacity more quickly because North America could not otherwise keep up with China.
Anthony Moreau and Ian Wagner described a shift in Canada toward developing mines, pipelines and markets outside the US, with Wagner linking it to deteriorating US-Canada trade relations 5. John Feneck argued that Canada and the US needed to build critical-minerals capacity more quickly because North America could not otherwise keep up with China 17.