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Gold & Bitcoin

Sample
Oct 15 · 33 voices
i

About this edition

36 items · printed Oct 15, 06:35 ET

Tap any number in the text for its receipt — who said it, when, and the clip.

A sample edition, written from this desk's voices for everyone. Your own paper is written only from the voices you pick.

AI optimism remained powerful but contested, while gold advocates made the strongest case for monetary hedges amid inflation and currency stress.

CPI 3.72% +0.36 pts SepFed 4.00%Gold $4,179 +1.7%S&P 500 7,719 −1.1%Dollar 121.60 +0.1% Oct 9Bitcoin $81,092 −0.6%closes of Oct 9–Oct 15

Discussion centred on AI’s market impact, inflation and rates, gold’s monetary role, and dollar diversification. AI was presented both as a powerful earnings and infrastructure driver 15 and as a likely bubble vulnerable to equity supply and slowing spending 3234. Hot inflation was linked to stronger dollar and higher-rate expectations 2021, while gold advocates argued that institutional under-allocation and monetary-system stress could support much higher prices 1922. Bitcoin received limited attention, mainly as an asset class becoming more established but still needing lower volatility and protection from technological threats 35.

BI+2833 voices

What happened

Investment chiefs were sharply divided on the AI build-out with some calling it a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity and others warning the data-center boom could turn ugly.4

0 of 33

Cameron Dawson argued demand for AI infrastructure remains very strong but flagged next year’s capex growth as the key risk to sustaining margins and earnings upside.15

1 of 33

Ben Inker warned AI is likely a bubble because broad AI adoption requires it to be cheap, which undercuts sustained exceptional profitability and rising equity supply and heavy data-center investment could precipitate a collapse.3234

1 of 33
Show 2 moreShow fewer

Alasdair Macleod argued fiat currencies are failing, predicting severe financial disruption and much higher commodity prices measured in currencies, implying a large upside for gold.22

1 of 33

Michael Howell said the world may be moving toward two monetary blocs — a dollar-based system and a Chinese system using gold as notional backing — while the dollar remains the cleanest paper currency.27

1 of 33

“The real bull case for gold is that it is fully reincorporated in the financial system”

SM Shayne McGuireTracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) Open the source

Where they disagree

Whether the AI build-out is durable or a bubble

CD

AI build-out durable15

1 voice

BI

AI is likely a bubble3234

1 voice

Divide among investment chiefs4

Investment chiefs at the alternative-investment gathering

The desk

How the desk is calling it

39 of 44 voices lean bullish on gold. Next to settle: FOMC on Oct 28 (1 yes, 1 no); 19 calls open.

Where they stand · gold

i

Reading the chart

  • bullish
  • bearish
  • range-bound

COMEX gold futures · Google Finance

An arrow is one voice's position on the day they took it. Hover or tap an arrow for who it was and what they said.

COMEX gold futures, 2026-09-15 to 2026-10-15, where the desk's voices took positions$4,100$4,200$4,300$4,400Oct 1Oct 15Luke Gromen · Sep 15 · up — Gromen expects capital to flow into gold, with central banks and others piling in, supporting its price.Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · down — Gold is flat to slightly down after the hike and hawkish press conference.jeroen blokland · Sep 17 · up — Blokland sees gold as a scarce monetary asset that bonds will not outperform.Jurrien Timmer · Sep 18 · up — Timmer expects gold to rise from its $4k support to $5k or higher in the coming months on global liquidity and rising demand.The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 20 · up — If gold prices catch up with the recent rise in ETF holdings, they could surge above $5,000 in the coming months.Josef Schachter · Sep 23 · up — Suggests holding gold, precious metals and uranium in the portfolio.Luke Gromen · Sep 23 · up — Gromen expects gold to surge sharply ("moon") as part of his proposed policy sequence.Hugh Agro · Sep 24 · up — Agro calls it an exciting time to be in the gold business with a receptive market for exploration.James Stanley · Sep 25 · down — Gold is being faded on bounces and looks set for a deeper low, with an open door to a 4100 test.Peter Schiff · Sep 25 · up — Schiff says rising yields and inflation are bullish for gold, and gold prices will accelerate higher.Robin Brooks · Sep 25 · up — Brooks expects gold to do well in the coming months as positive catalysts stack up.Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · up — Brooks expects gold to rally as the debasement trade takes off again.Brent Johnson · Sep 27 · up — He would not be surprised by a short-term jump in gold, though he doubts a return to February levels soon.Doomberg · Sep 27 · up — Doomberg says gold is the best hedge against dollar debasement and its nominal price goes up.Chris Vermeulen · Sep 28 · down — Gold is in a topping phase that will fizzle and sell off, with downside to about $3,100 an ounce.Elizabeth Thomas · Sep 28 · up — She initiated a gold position and sees more upside as fear and instability drive buying, though not from central banks.Fiona Cincotta · Sep 28 · down — Gold has broken key moving averages and could fall further until the Fed closes the door on hikes and the dollar and oil weaken.Gary Bohm · Sep 28 · up — Gold may look weak today, but it will be supported once officials keep printing money rather than let the bond market break.Guy Adami · Sep 28 · up — He keeps his bullish gold view intact, expecting more countries to repatriate gold.Jeffrey Christian · Sep 29 · up — Christian remains bullish on gold: the drivers pushing rates higher are far more positive for gold than higher rates are negative.Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · up — Lepard expects gold to keep rising, heading over $5,000 and probably $6,000-$7,000 within 18 months.Steve H. Hanke · Sep 29 · up — Hanke says gold's secular bull market is intact and it will keep going up, topping out around $6,000.Daniel Lacalle · Sep 30 · up — Lacalle prefers gold over bonds, implying he expects gold to do better.Laks Ganapathi · Sep 30 · up — Ganapathi favors gold and gold proxies as the consistent, proven asset.David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · up — Rosenberg calls the gold pullback a corrective phase within an intact secular bull market driven by central bank reserve diversification.Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · up — Expects a great opportunity to add to gold in coming weeks and months, holding it for eventual money printing.Guy Adami · Oct 2 · up — Expects gold to flourish materially if the bond market continues to erode and yields stay high.Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · up — Expects gold to keep rising, perform very well before year end and have a long way to run.Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · up — Looking out a year or two, gold is okay; he'd buy here or on a dip below $4,000, with rates not staying high forever and countries still buying.James Stanley · Oct 3 · up — Remains long-term bullish on gold, expecting it to keep going up as government spending balloons.Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · up — Expects gold to go a lot higher, seeing 27,000-29,000 by 2030 as not controversial.jeroen blokland · Oct 5 · up — Expects gold to keep rising as central banks diversify into it and investors wake up to its portfolio-protection role.John Black · Oct 5 · up — Expects a very robust gold market alongside copper.Mark Skousen · Oct 5 · down — Relatively bearish on gold, saying it is in a kind of bear market and will not hit $6,000.Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects gold to reach 13,000 by 2029-2031, and calls 3,500 a steal.Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · up — Expects gold to move higher again after its bear market, and has been buying it.Brad Langille · Oct 7 · up — Expects a strong bull market in the metal price, with the best setup he has seen in his career.Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · up — Keeps calling for gold at 3,500 and expects another run after a rest of a year or two.Joaquin Marias · Oct 7 · up — Expects gold grades to rise with copper at depth and the gold-copper system to keep going below Carmen and other targets.Michael Boutros · Oct 7 · down — Expects gold to stay weighted to the downside, with a weekly close below 4103 opening a retest of the yearly lows.Adrian Day · Oct 8 · steady — Expects gold to stay in a soft, volatile trading range and not break out to $5,000 while interest rates keep backing up.Brent Johnson · Oct 8 · up — Expects gold to make a fairly big move higher in the next few weeks, though he would buy a lower low if wrong.jim iuorio · Oct 8 · up — Expects gold and silver to be the place to be if the Fed starts buying long-end bonds and the debasement trade returns.Luke Gromen · Oct 8 · up — Expects gold to be the beneficiary of the US debt and fiscal situation, and thinks selling gold on rising US rates is a mistake.Gary Wagner · Oct 9 · up — Expects gold to bottom here and rally to a possible new high by Q1/Q2 of next year, over the next six to eight months.Matt Simpson · Oct 9 · up — Expects gold to hold above the 4,000 level and sees upside potential over the near term, though not a new record high soon.Chris Marcus · Oct 10 · up — Expects a gold revaluation — either government-led or forced by the market — and says it is already underway.David Scutt · Oct 10 · up — Expects gold's breakout to extend, targeting $4,225–$4,235 an ounce initially, then $4,300, $4,333 and $4,400.Robin Brooks · Oct 10 · up — Expects the reasons for gold to stage another rally are building.Peter Schiff · Oct 11 · up — Expects rising nominal rates with faster inflation to be bullish for gold.Anthony Moreau · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold prices to go higher.jeroen blokland · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold to rise, with China buying unprecedented amounts and readers told to act accordingly.Luke Gromen · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold to reach $22,000/oz, the level at which China's YTD gold imports would balance its YTD trade surplus.Tavi Costa · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold to rise substantially from here, calling it extremely attractive after the 25% correction and a secular bull market that could reach $15,000-$30,000 an ounce one day.Alasdair Macleod · Oct 14 · up — Expects gold to rise sharply over the next six to twelve months, doubling, tripling or quadrupling as currencies fall.Gary Bohm · Oct 14 · up — Sees a collective global print cycle and fiat debasement making gold the safe place to be.Michael Howell · Oct 14 · up — Expects gold to keep pace with rising US debt and to stabilize and push up once China turns its money taps on again.
COMEX gold futures, 2026-09-20 to 2026-10-15, where the desk's voices took positions$4,100$4,200$4,300$4,400Oct 1Oct 15Josef Schachter · Sep 23 · up — Suggests holding gold, precious metals and uranium in the portfolio.Luke Gromen · Sep 23 · up — Gromen expects gold to surge sharply ("moon") as part of his proposed policy sequence.Hugh Agro · Sep 24 · up — Agro calls it an exciting time to be in the gold business with a receptive market for exploration.James Stanley · Sep 25 · down — Gold is being faded on bounces and looks set for a deeper low, with an open door to a 4100 test.Peter Schiff · Sep 25 · up — Schiff says rising yields and inflation are bullish for gold, and gold prices will accelerate higher.Robin Brooks · Sep 25 · up — Brooks expects gold to do well in the coming months as positive catalysts stack up.Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · up — Brooks expects gold to rally as the debasement trade takes off again.Brent Johnson · Sep 27 · up — He would not be surprised by a short-term jump in gold, though he doubts a return to February levels soon.Doomberg · Sep 27 · up — Doomberg says gold is the best hedge against dollar debasement and its nominal price goes up.Chris Vermeulen · Sep 28 · down — Gold is in a topping phase that will fizzle and sell off, with downside to about $3,100 an ounce.Elizabeth Thomas · Sep 28 · up — She initiated a gold position and sees more upside as fear and instability drive buying, though not from central banks.Fiona Cincotta · Sep 28 · down — Gold has broken key moving averages and could fall further until the Fed closes the door on hikes and the dollar and oil weaken.Gary Bohm · Sep 28 · up — Gold may look weak today, but it will be supported once officials keep printing money rather than let the bond market break.Guy Adami · Sep 28 · up — He keeps his bullish gold view intact, expecting more countries to repatriate gold.Jeffrey Christian · Sep 29 · up — Christian remains bullish on gold: the drivers pushing rates higher are far more positive for gold than higher rates are negative.Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · up — Lepard expects gold to keep rising, heading over $5,000 and probably $6,000-$7,000 within 18 months.Steve H. Hanke · Sep 29 · up — Hanke says gold's secular bull market is intact and it will keep going up, topping out around $6,000.Daniel Lacalle · Sep 30 · up — Lacalle prefers gold over bonds, implying he expects gold to do better.Laks Ganapathi · Sep 30 · up — Ganapathi favors gold and gold proxies as the consistent, proven asset.David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · up — Rosenberg calls the gold pullback a corrective phase within an intact secular bull market driven by central bank reserve diversification.Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · up — Expects a great opportunity to add to gold in coming weeks and months, holding it for eventual money printing.Guy Adami · Oct 2 · up — Expects gold to flourish materially if the bond market continues to erode and yields stay high.Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · up — Expects gold to keep rising, perform very well before year end and have a long way to run.Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · up — Looking out a year or two, gold is okay; he'd buy here or on a dip below $4,000, with rates not staying high forever and countries still buying.James Stanley · Oct 3 · up — Remains long-term bullish on gold, expecting it to keep going up as government spending balloons.Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · up — Expects gold to go a lot higher, seeing 27,000-29,000 by 2030 as not controversial.jeroen blokland · Oct 5 · up — Expects gold to keep rising as central banks diversify into it and investors wake up to its portfolio-protection role.John Black · Oct 5 · up — Expects a very robust gold market alongside copper.Mark Skousen · Oct 5 · down — Relatively bearish on gold, saying it is in a kind of bear market and will not hit $6,000.Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects gold to reach 13,000 by 2029-2031, and calls 3,500 a steal.Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · up — Expects gold to move higher again after its bear market, and has been buying it.Brad Langille · Oct 7 · up — Expects a strong bull market in the metal price, with the best setup he has seen in his career.Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · up — Keeps calling for gold at 3,500 and expects another run after a rest of a year or two.Joaquin Marias · Oct 7 · up — Expects gold grades to rise with copper at depth and the gold-copper system to keep going below Carmen and other targets.Michael Boutros · Oct 7 · down — Expects gold to stay weighted to the downside, with a weekly close below 4103 opening a retest of the yearly lows.Adrian Day · Oct 8 · steady — Expects gold to stay in a soft, volatile trading range and not break out to $5,000 while interest rates keep backing up.Brent Johnson · Oct 8 · up — Expects gold to make a fairly big move higher in the next few weeks, though he would buy a lower low if wrong.jim iuorio · Oct 8 · up — Expects gold and silver to be the place to be if the Fed starts buying long-end bonds and the debasement trade returns.Luke Gromen · Oct 8 · up — Expects gold to be the beneficiary of the US debt and fiscal situation, and thinks selling gold on rising US rates is a mistake.Gary Wagner · Oct 9 · up — Expects gold to bottom here and rally to a possible new high by Q1/Q2 of next year, over the next six to eight months.Matt Simpson · Oct 9 · up — Expects gold to hold above the 4,000 level and sees upside potential over the near term, though not a new record high soon.Chris Marcus · Oct 10 · up — Expects a gold revaluation — either government-led or forced by the market — and says it is already underway.David Scutt · Oct 10 · up — Expects gold's breakout to extend, targeting $4,225–$4,235 an ounce initially, then $4,300, $4,333 and $4,400.Robin Brooks · Oct 10 · up — Expects the reasons for gold to stage another rally are building.Peter Schiff · Oct 11 · up — Expects rising nominal rates with faster inflation to be bullish for gold.Anthony Moreau · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold prices to go higher.jeroen blokland · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold to rise, with China buying unprecedented amounts and readers told to act accordingly.Luke Gromen · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold to reach $22,000/oz, the level at which China's YTD gold imports would balance its YTD trade surplus.Tavi Costa · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold to rise substantially from here, calling it extremely attractive after the 25% correction and a secular bull market that could reach $15,000-$30,000 an ounce one day.Alasdair Macleod · Oct 14 · up — Expects gold to rise sharply over the next six to twelve months, doubling, tripling or quadrupling as currencies fall.Gary Bohm · Oct 14 · up — Sees a collective global print cycle and fiat debasement making gold the safe place to be.Michael Howell · Oct 14 · up — Expects gold to keep pace with rising US debt and to stabilize and push up once China turns its money taps on again.
COMEX gold futures, 2026-07-17 to 2026-10-15, with 44 desk voices' positions$4,000$4,250$4,500$4,750Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1Luke Gromen · Sep 15 · up — Gromen expects capital to flow into gold, with central banks and others piling in, supporting its price.Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · down — Gold is flat to slightly down after the hike and hawkish press conference.jeroen blokland · Sep 17 · up — Blokland sees gold as a scarce monetary asset that bonds will not outperform.Jurrien Timmer · Sep 18 · up — Timmer expects gold to rise from its $4k support to $5k or higher in the coming months on global liquidity and rising demand.The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 20 · up — If gold prices catch up with the recent rise in ETF holdings, they could surge above $5,000 in the coming months.Josef Schachter · Sep 23 · up — Suggests holding gold, precious metals and uranium in the portfolio.Luke Gromen · Sep 23 · up — Gromen expects gold to surge sharply ("moon") as part of his proposed policy sequence.Hugh Agro · Sep 24 · up — Agro calls it an exciting time to be in the gold business with a receptive market for exploration.James Stanley · Sep 25 · down — Gold is being faded on bounces and looks set for a deeper low, with an open door to a 4100 test.Peter Schiff · Sep 25 · up — Schiff says rising yields and inflation are bullish for gold, and gold prices will accelerate higher.Robin Brooks · Sep 25 · up — Brooks expects gold to do well in the coming months as positive catalysts stack up.Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · up — Brooks expects gold to rally as the debasement trade takes off again.Brent Johnson · Sep 27 · up — He would not be surprised by a short-term jump in gold, though he doubts a return to February levels soon.Doomberg · Sep 27 · up — Doomberg says gold is the best hedge against dollar debasement and its nominal price goes up.Chris Vermeulen · Sep 28 · down — Gold is in a topping phase that will fizzle and sell off, with downside to about $3,100 an ounce.Elizabeth Thomas · Sep 28 · up — She initiated a gold position and sees more upside as fear and instability drive buying, though not from central banks.Fiona Cincotta · Sep 28 · down — Gold has broken key moving averages and could fall further until the Fed closes the door on hikes and the dollar and oil weaken.Gary Bohm · Sep 28 · up — Gold may look weak today, but it will be supported once officials keep printing money rather than let the bond market break.Guy Adami · Sep 28 · up — He keeps his bullish gold view intact, expecting more countries to repatriate gold.Jeffrey Christian · Sep 29 · up — Christian remains bullish on gold: the drivers pushing rates higher are far more positive for gold than higher rates are negative.Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · up — Lepard expects gold to keep rising, heading over $5,000 and probably $6,000-$7,000 within 18 months.Steve H. Hanke · Sep 29 · up — Hanke says gold's secular bull market is intact and it will keep going up, topping out around $6,000.Daniel Lacalle · Sep 30 · up — Lacalle prefers gold over bonds, implying he expects gold to do better.Laks Ganapathi · Sep 30 · up — Ganapathi favors gold and gold proxies as the consistent, proven asset.David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · up — Rosenberg calls the gold pullback a corrective phase within an intact secular bull market driven by central bank reserve diversification.Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · up — Expects a great opportunity to add to gold in coming weeks and months, holding it for eventual money printing.Guy Adami · Oct 2 · up — Expects gold to flourish materially if the bond market continues to erode and yields stay high.Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · up — Expects gold to keep rising, perform very well before year end and have a long way to run.Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · up — Looking out a year or two, gold is okay; he'd buy here or on a dip below $4,000, with rates not staying high forever and countries still buying.James Stanley · Oct 3 · up — Remains long-term bullish on gold, expecting it to keep going up as government spending balloons.Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · up — Expects gold to go a lot higher, seeing 27,000-29,000 by 2030 as not controversial.jeroen blokland · Oct 5 · up — Expects gold to keep rising as central banks diversify into it and investors wake up to its portfolio-protection role.John Black · Oct 5 · up — Expects a very robust gold market alongside copper.Mark Skousen · Oct 5 · down — Relatively bearish on gold, saying it is in a kind of bear market and will not hit $6,000.Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects gold to reach 13,000 by 2029-2031, and calls 3,500 a steal.Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · up — Expects gold to move higher again after its bear market, and has been buying it.Brad Langille · Oct 7 · up — Expects a strong bull market in the metal price, with the best setup he has seen in his career.Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · up — Keeps calling for gold at 3,500 and expects another run after a rest of a year or two.Joaquin Marias · Oct 7 · up — Expects gold grades to rise with copper at depth and the gold-copper system to keep going below Carmen and other targets.Michael Boutros · Oct 7 · down — Expects gold to stay weighted to the downside, with a weekly close below 4103 opening a retest of the yearly lows.Adrian Day · Oct 8 · steady — Expects gold to stay in a soft, volatile trading range and not break out to $5,000 while interest rates keep backing up.Brent Johnson · Oct 8 · up — Expects gold to make a fairly big move higher in the next few weeks, though he would buy a lower low if wrong.jim iuorio · Oct 8 · up — Expects gold and silver to be the place to be if the Fed starts buying long-end bonds and the debasement trade returns.Luke Gromen · Oct 8 · up — Expects gold to be the beneficiary of the US debt and fiscal situation, and thinks selling gold on rising US rates is a mistake.Gary Wagner · Oct 9 · up — Expects gold to bottom here and rally to a possible new high by Q1/Q2 of next year, over the next six to eight months.Matt Simpson · Oct 9 · up — Expects gold to hold above the 4,000 level and sees upside potential over the near term, though not a new record high soon.Chris Marcus · Oct 10 · up — Expects a gold revaluation — either government-led or forced by the market — and says it is already underway.David Scutt · Oct 10 · up — Expects gold's breakout to extend, targeting $4,225–$4,235 an ounce initially, then $4,300, $4,333 and $4,400.Robin Brooks · Oct 10 · up — Expects the reasons for gold to stage another rally are building.Peter Schiff · Oct 11 · up — Expects rising nominal rates with faster inflation to be bullish for gold.Anthony Moreau · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold prices to go higher.jeroen blokland · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold to rise, with China buying unprecedented amounts and readers told to act accordingly.Luke Gromen · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold to reach $22,000/oz, the level at which China's YTD gold imports would balance its YTD trade surplus.Tavi Costa · Oct 12 · up — Expects gold to rise substantially from here, calling it extremely attractive after the 25% correction and a secular bull market that could reach $15,000-$30,000 an ounce one day.Alasdair Macleod · Oct 14 · up — Expects gold to rise sharply over the next six to twelve months, doubling, tripling or quadrupling as currencies fall.Gary Bohm · Oct 14 · up — Sees a collective global print cycle and fiat debasement making gold the safe place to be.Michael Howell · Oct 14 · up — Expects gold to keep pace with rising US debt and to stabilize and push up once China turns its money taps on again.

COMEX gold futures rose from $4,019 to $4,179 since Jul 17. The desk's voices, as each stands now: 39 bullish, 4 bearish, 1 range-bound.

Their record

○monetary inflation running at 7%-8% per annum: Michael Howell.
○AI bubble bursts within 12-18 months: Ben Inker.
○US fiscal deficit to widen to -6.1% of GDP in 2027: The Kobeissi Letter.

What settles next

Near the mark

○ Open · by Jun 30

Gary Wagner: “gold to a new high by Q1/Q2 next year”

COMEX gold futures with Gary Wagner's target ≥ $4,212$4,000$4,250$4,500$4,750Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1target ≥ $4,212Gary Wagner · Oct 9 · up — Expects gold to bottom here and rally to a possible new high by Q1/Q2 of next year, over the next six to eight months.
They said
Oct 9: Expects gold to bottom here and rally to a possible new high by Q1/Q2 of next year, over the next six to eight months.
Distance
$4,179 now, +0.8% to go by Jun 30, 2027.
source ↗
○ Open · by Dec 31

Gareth Soloway: “S&P 500 to 8,000 by year end”

S&P 500 with Gareth Soloway's target ≥ 8,0007,2507,5007,7508,000Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1target ≥ 8,000Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575.
They said
Oct 6: Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575.
Distance
7,719 now, +3.6% to go by Dec 31.
source ↗
28 OctFOMC · Wed
Hike on Oct 28? 1 say yes, 1 say no.
Keith McCulloughRobin Brooks
Settles from the target range after the 14:00 ET decision.
10 NovCPI · Tue
No dated calls yet.Settles on the Consumer Price Index print, 08:30 ET (FRED CPIAUCSL, CPILFESL).
31 DecFed · Thu
Hike by Dec 31? 1 say yes, 1 say no.
Laks GanapathiPaul Cronin
Settles on the close of Dec 31 (FRED DFEDTARU).
1 AprS&P 500 · Thu 2027
David Hunter: “S&P 500 to 10,000 within three to six months” (Oct 1). S&P 500 is at 7,719, +29.6% to go.Settles on the close of Apr 1 (S&P 500).
6 OctBitcoin · Wed 2027
Gareth Soloway: “Bitcoin to 100,000 within a year” (Oct 6). Bitcoin is at $81,092, +23.3% to go.Settles on the close of Oct 6 (Bitcoin).
29 MarGold · Wed 2028
Lawrence Lepard: “Gold over $5,000 within 18 months” (Sep 29). Gold is at $4,179, +19.6% to go.Settles on the close of Mar 29 (COMEX gold futures).
2 AprFed · Sun 2028
Dario Perkins: “Fed hikes too much within 18 months” (Oct 2). Fed is at 4.00%.Settles on the close of Apr 2 (FRED DFEDTARU).
29 SepBitcoin · Fri 2028
Lawrence Lepard: “Bitcoin to $200k-$300k in the next two years” (Sep 29). Bitcoin is at $81,092, +146.6% to go.Settles on the close of Sep 29 (Bitcoin).

The voices

CD

Cameron Dawson

Demand for AI infrastructure remains very strong today, but next year’s capex growth forecast will determine whether margins and the AI-led earnings upswing can be sustained.15

BI

Ben Inker

Broad AI adoption must be cheap, which undermines durable exceptional profitability, and rising equity supply plus heavy investment in data centres make this likely to prove a bubble.3234

AM

Alasdair Macleod

Fiat currencies are failing to preserve value, making severe financial disruption likely and implying commodities and gold could rise manyfold measured in depreciating currencies.22

MH

Michael Howell

We appear to be forming two monetary systems — a dollar-based bloc using US Treasuries and a Chinese system that will use gold as notional backing — with the dollar still the cleanest paper currency.27

SH

Steve H. Hanke

Inflation should be understood primarily as a monetary phenomenon rather than through selective interpretation of particular price indices.7

5 of this desk's 8 voices spoke · Quiet: Brent Johnson, Jordi Visser, Josh Linville

On the record

inflationSteve H. Hanke, Cameron Dawson +18

Steve H. Hanke Expects inflation to stay elevated and run above target because broad money supply growth (Divisia M4 at ~7.5%) exceeds the ~6% golden growth rate.↗

Cameron Dawson expects inflationary pressure from food and energy may spread into other areas, pushing inflation up.↗

Javier Blas Sees inflation high and rising but in the 3-3.5% range, nothing like 2022.↗

Michael Howell Expects monetary inflation to run at 7%-8% per annum, with underlying high-street inflation around 5%-6% — a steady rate of higher inflation, not hyperinflation.↗

Show 16 moreShow fewer

Wolf Richter Expects inflation to stay up in the 3-5% range rather than return to 2%.↗

Lucio Arrocha Expects Argentine inflation around 20% next year, down from roughly 30% this year.↗

James Stanley Expects the Fed to get inflation down first before it can pursue another round of QE.↗

Natalie Scott-Gray Expects inflation to stay sticky, keeping central banks hawkish.↗

Peter Schiff Expects inflation to keep rising faster than rates, potentially to 10-15% a year.↗

Danielle Park Expects higher rates to bring more disinflationary pressure, deflation in some things and disinflation in others.↗

Richard D. Wolff Expects US inflation to rise further, saying the biggest impact is yet to come as oil prices push through.↗

Lance Roberts Expects the long-term trend to remain disinflationary for the economy because of costs and deficits.↗

Adam Taggart Expects disinflation over this period, absent the Iran war's oil price increase.↗

Chris Marcus Expects consumer prices to rise more than they already have, making life harder for many people.↗

Gary Wagner Expects inflation to rise, driven by elevated crude oil prices.↗

Fawad Razaqzada Expects higher oil prices to feed into inflation, keeping inflation persistent.↗

Mike McGlone Sees post-inflation deflation as the next big trade, expecting inflation to give way to deflation.↗

Adrian Day Expects inflation to remain very stubborn, with the Fed intent on bringing it down to 2%.↗

Luke Gromen Expects inflation to run hot as the only viable way out of the U.S. debt problem, citing 8-12% inflation in the COVID episode.↗

jim iuorio Expects the disinflationary force of AI to eventually win out over the inflationary AI build-out, with inflation cooling.↗

AIAlexander De Croo, Wolf Richter +17

Alexander De Croo Sees technology including AI as an incredible accelerator of development, with the upside outweighing the downside.↗

Wolf Richter Expects AI-related stocks to suffer a major sell-off of 80-90% when AI spending slows.↗

Ben Inker Expects the AI bubble to burst, with equity supply as the catalyst over the next 12 to 18 months.↗

Deirdre Bosa Expects AI adoption to keep rising, which is positive for AI as long as adoption continues.↗

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Thomas Hayes Bullish on AI beneficiaries, expecting the technology to increase productivity, margins and GDP growth long term, while avoiding the capex-financed side.↗

Peter Berezin Expects the AI CapEx boom to turn to bust, with stocks peaking around 2027 and CapEx peaking around 2028.↗

@profplum99 Expects AI to keep changing the economy, dismissing the 'never different this time' view.↗

Danielle Park Expects AI revenue per user to keep declining as capacity buildout continues.↗

Bob Elliott Expects the AI demand story to fail, since it would require all non-tech companies to bet their entire free cashflow on AI by 2030.↗

Jordi Visser Expects the AI trade to keep climbing, saying the ride is just beginning despite bubble talk.↗

Joseph Wang Believes AI is a huge bubble but expects it can go much higher, with the only way out being some kind of blow-off.↗

Chris Marcus Expects AI progress and productivity gains to accelerate and cannot be stopped.↗

The Kobeissi Letter Expects AI to become one of the largest spending categories in the US economy, with AI companies generating ~$3.5 trillion in annual revenue by 2032.↗

Afra Wang Expects AI to be the force that takes China to its next industrial upgrade, which is why people rush to adopt it.↗

Luke Gromen Expects the AI productivity miracle to disappoint — it is not going to plan.↗

Brent Johnson Expects AI to be a step-change positive for humanity over the long arc, though with short-term unemployment bumps.↗

jim iuorio Expects the AI trade to keep running as a mania driving the economy and share prices, though he warns it is a bubble that will eventually burst.↗

Adam Taggart Believes AI will unlock gargantuan opportunity for the entrepreneurial-minded, and expects it to be deflationary if it plays out.↗

Stacy Rasgon Expects AI demand to be real and to keep strengthening, with returns on the investment materializing.↗

goldAlasdair Macleod, Michael Howell +14

Alasdair Macleod Expects gold to rise sharply over the next six to twelve months, doubling, tripling or quadrupling as currencies fall.↗

Michael Howell Expects gold to keep pace with rising US debt and to stabilize and push up once China turns its money taps on again.↗

Gary Bohm Sees a collective global print cycle and fiat debasement making gold the safe place to be.↗

Tavi Costa Expects gold to rise substantially from here, calling it extremely attractive after the 25% correction and a secular bull market that could reach $15,000-$30,000 an ounce one day.↗

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Luke Gromen Expects gold to reach $22,000/oz, the level at which China's YTD gold imports would balance its YTD trade surplus.↗

Anthony Moreau Expects gold prices to go higher.↗

jeroen blokland Expects gold to rise, with China buying unprecedented amounts and readers told to act accordingly.↗

Peter Schiff Expects rising nominal rates with faster inflation to be bullish for gold.↗

David Scutt Expects gold's breakout to extend, targeting $4,225–$4,235 an ounce initially, then $4,300, $4,333 and $4,400.↗

Robin Brooks Expects the reasons for gold to stage another rally are building.↗

Chris Marcus Expects a gold revaluation — either government-led or forced by the market — and says it is already underway.↗

Gary Wagner Expects gold to bottom here and rally to a possible new high by Q1/Q2 of next year, over the next six to eight months.↗

Matt Simpson Expects gold to hold above the 4,000 level and sees upside potential over the near term, though not a new record high soon.↗

Adrian Day Expects gold to stay in a soft, volatile trading range and not break out to $5,000 while interest rates keep backing up.↗

Brent Johnson Expects gold to make a fairly big move higher in the next few weeks, though he would buy a lower low if wrong.↗

jim iuorio Expects gold and silver to be the place to be if the Fed starts buying long-end bonds and the debasement trade returns.↗

USSteve H. Hanke, Alasdair Macleod +13

Steve H. Hanke Expects no US recession anytime soon because the money supply is still growing.↗

Alasdair Macleod Expects the US Treasury to inflate away its debt, implying a massive devaluation of the dollar.↗

ʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹq Expects the US economy to wobble if financial conditions around AI capex deteriorate, since it rests on a single AI-driven story.↗

Wolf Richter Expects the US economy to keep running hot, with strong nominal growth and inflation staying elevated.↗

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Robin Wigglesworth Expects the US economy to keep growing at a fast rate and does not worry about the US going bust anytime soon.↗

The Kobeissi Letter Expects the US fiscal deficit to widen to -6.1% of GDP in 2027, the largest among major developed economies.↗

Ananth Krishnan Expects India-US relations to remain difficult for now, though the relationship stays important to India.↗

Tavi Costa Expects the US to inflate its way out of its debt problem rather than deflate, with a 75-80% probability.↗

Grant Cardone Expects the US economy to enter the greatest economic expansion since the Industrial Revolution, and to be deflationary rather than inflationary.↗

Peter Schiff Expects higher rates to create a lot of problems in the US economy, which was built on real estate.↗

Richard D. Wolff Expects American politics and consciousness to tilt back toward government actively improving average people's lives, with more socialists winning office in US cities.↗

Nate Donnay Expects US milk production growth to stay above 2% as the herd expansion supports output.↗

Luke Gromen Expects an austerity-driven US recession to trigger debt collapse, banking system collapse and hyperinflation versus gold.↗

Brent Johnson Expects the U.S. to consolidate power and remain the dominant global power rather than decline, likening it to Republican Rome becoming the Empire.↗

Jurrien Timmer Expects US earnings and payout growth to be peaking, with the second derivative due to roll over.↗

S&P 500Cameron Dawson, Alasdair Macleod +9

Cameron Dawson Expects the market to roll over and break down before earnings estimates do.↗

Alasdair Macleod Expects the equity market bubble to implode, with the S&P 500 unable to hold its record levels.↗

Ben Inker Expects the market to do about 4% worse per percent of market cap coming in via IPO, implying roughly 24% worse than normal with 6% supply.↗

Thomas Hayes Expects the indices to be more subdued than people expect, rising only modestly while the 493 outperforms.↗

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Robin Brooks Expects the S&P 500 to be the big winner as oil falls and France muddles along.↗

Caleb Silver Expects higher share prices as long as the earnings parade continues.↗

The Kobeissi Letter Expects the S&P 500 to post another year of strong gains, based on the historical average Year 5 bull market return of +20.8%.↗

Charles Lemonides Expects the bull market to continue, with a blow-off top still ahead and the market potentially running another two to five years.↗

Lance Roberts Expects the cap-weighted S&P 500 to be flat to modestly higher into year-end, with the strongest gains in the equal-weighted index.↗

James Stanley Expects S&P 500 bullish continuation, with pullbacks seen as opportunistic buying.↗

Mike McGlone Expects the S&P 500 to break and drop 10-20%, calling it a matter of when, not if.↗

data centersBen Inker, Charles Lemonides +5

Ben Inker Expects the world will over-invest in data centers, producing giant write-offs.↗

Charles Lemonides Expects the data center growth to keep going and not slow down anytime soon.↗

Grant Cardone Expects labor and institutional money to flood into data center construction.↗

Nate Hagens Expects data center load and appetite for energy and materials to keep growing.↗

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Ed Zitron Expects the promised data center capacity, including Firmus's, not to be built.↗

Luke Gromen Expects electricity costs to keep rising as data centers are built around him.↗

Stacy Rasgon Expects data center capacity build-outs to continue and be used, with local backlash not stopping progress.↗

dollarAlasdair Macleod, Tavi Costa +5

Alasdair Macleod Expects the dollar to be massively devalued as the Treasury inflates away the debt.↗

Tavi Costa Expects the dollar to weaken over the next decade alongside yield suppression.↗

Robin Brooks Expects the dollar to fall once the war ends and oil prices decline, as the rate-differential support unwinds.↗

Natalie Scott-Gray Expects the dollar to be underpinned by further Fed rate hikes.↗

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Brent Johnson Expects the dollar index to return to much higher levels over the longer term, though a short-term pullback is possible.↗

Luke Gromen Expects any dollar move above ~101 on the Dixie to trigger a chaotic unwind of the U.S. net international investment position.↗

jim iuorio Expects foreign central banks' attempts to move away from the dollar to fail, calling the effort silly.↗

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BitcoinMichael Howell, Eric Balchunas +4

Michael Howell Expects Bitcoin to be a core monetary inflation hedge to buy on dips, though it won't move in a straight line.↗

Eric Balchunas Expects Bitcoin to grow from here, helped by decreasing volatility and correlation and by owning the affordability narrative.↗

Peter Schiff Expects Bitcoin to get clobbered and says it will not 10x or 2x over the next few years.↗

Danielle Park Expects bitcoin to remain weak and sees it as a barometer of fading risk appetite.↗

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Mike McGlone Expects Bitcoin to lose a zero and fall roughly 50% if the S&P 500 drops 10-20%; remains bearish.↗

Luke Gromen Expects Bitcoin to rise four to five times over the ensuing two years as negative real rates are needed to deflate the debt.↗

copperIndy Johar, Anthony Moreau +4

Indy Johar Expects copper demand to collapse because a labor and cognition collapse destroys the labor distribution and demand in the economy.↗

Anthony Moreau Expects copper prices to go higher, citing $10 a pound as the upside case.↗

Chris Marcus Sees copper as having a very similar profile to silver, implying higher prices ahead.↗

Will Thompson Expects the copper market to keep underappreciating the structural deficit, with grade decline, long permitting timelines and political risk concentration not fully priced in.↗

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Mike McGlone Expects copper to fall sharply, saying if the S&P 500 drops 10% copper is almost guaranteed to drop 20%, and calls copper an accident waiting to happen.↗

Jason Jessup Expects footwall copper at current prices to be extremely profitable and is focusing the company on copper.↗

Federal Reserve SystemMichael Howell, Ben Inker +3

Michael Howell Expects the Fed to go at half speed, with tightening scope significantly reduced rather than any aggressive moves.↗

Ben Inker Expects the Fed has plenty of room to lower rates if the economy stalls into recession.↗

Robin Brooks Expects an October Fed hike is back on the table.↗

Cameron Dawson Expects the Fed to hike further, having already hiked, shifting from dovish expectations to hawkish.↗

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Dan Nathan Expects the Fed to deliver another 25 basis point cut, as the Fed funds futures market implies.↗

IndiaCaleb Silver, Joe Aldina +3

Caleb Silver Says India's stock market weakness is temporary and the country will come back.↗

Joe Aldina Expects India to be forced to import more coal short term, keeping the market tight and bullish.↗

Nate Hagens Expects AI to take the call-center and outsourcing work that has been India's upward path, with the impact already visible.↗

Adam Tooze Expects India to be in a rather strong position thanks to its large, sophisticated petrochemical sector and recently built refineries.↗

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Marcelo Bonifacio Expects India to produce only about what it consumes, leaving low stocks and requiring more sugar imports after its crop ends around May or June.↗

OpenAI, L.P.Guy Adami, James Stanley +1

Guy Adami Sees OpenAI's aggressive revenue accounting as a serious red flag for a money-losing company at the center of the AI trade.↗

James Stanley Sees OpenAI's years of tapping debt markets as a massive debt load and growing strain while unprofitable.↗

Nate Hagens Sees ChatGPT access harming students' independent performance and leaking machine-preferred words into human speech.↗

energyIndy Johar, Tavi Costa +1

Indy Johar Expects a super cycle of energy demand driving unprecedented investment in energy innovation.↗

Tavi Costa Expects energy companies, especially US service companies, to do well as activity increases.↗

Charles Lemonides Expects offshore drilling and offshore production to keep growing for another five to ten years.↗

JapanAlasdair Macleod, The Kobeissi Letter

Alasdair Macleod Expects Japan's repatriation of capital to accelerate and pressure Japanese institutions, affecting everyone.↗

The Kobeissi Letter Expects Japan's fiscal deficit to more than triple, from -0.7% to -2.5% of GDP, its largest since 2022.↗

UKThe Kobeissi Letter, Nate Donnay

The Kobeissi Letter Expects the UK to be the only major economy to improve its fiscal position, with the deficit narrowing from -4.3% in 2025 to -3.1% of GDP next year.↗

Nate Donnay Expects UK (with EU-27) milk production to fall below year-ago levels in Q4 and Q1.↗

Artificial IntelligenceNate Hagens

Nate Hagens Expects AI use to spread and become a defining social and political divide, with a small share of people working intensively with it and everyone else using it indirectly.↗

More from the desk

AI boom versus bubble riskCameron Dawson said current AI demand remained strong, but the sustainability of infrastructure stocks depended heavily on whether projected hyperscaler capital-expenditure growth held up. Ben Inker argued that broad AI adoption requires low prices, which conflicts with exceptional profitability, and called data-centre investment particularly risky. Investment chiefs were explicitly divided between describing the build-out as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity and warning that the data-centre boom could turn ugly.

Cameron Dawson said current AI demand remained strong, but the sustainability of infrastructure stocks depended heavily on whether projected hyperscaler capital-expenditure growth held up 15. Ben Inker argued that broad AI adoption requires low prices, which conflicts with exceptional profitability, and called data-centre investment particularly risky 3234. Investment chiefs were explicitly divided between describing the build-out as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity and warning that the data-centre boom could turn ugly 4.

Inflation, rates and the dollarHot US inflation increased expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes and supported the dollar.

Hot US inflation increased expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes and supported the dollar 2021.

Gold and monetary-system stressShayne McGuire argued that gold’s bull case rests on institutional investors reallocating from equities and bonds, given their negligible current exposure. Alasdair Macleod claimed fiat-currency depreciation, debt stress and paper-market dynamics could produce very large gold gains, while Michael Howell described gold as a potential notional backing for an evolving Chinese monetary system.

Shayne McGuire argued that gold’s bull case rests on institutional investors reallocating from equities and bonds, given their negligible current exposure 19. Alasdair Macleod claimed fiat-currency depreciation, debt stress and paper-market dynamics could produce very large gold gains, while Michael Howell described gold as a potential notional backing for an evolving Chinese monetary system 2227.

Market concentration and breadthThe Kobeissi Letter said exceptionally low S&P 500 ETF volume signalled consolidation and had historically preceded pullbacks in the cited examples. Cameron Dawson highlighted deteriorating breadth, with much of the index weaker despite the headline market remaining near highs, while technology was described as carrying the market’s gains.

The Kobeissi Letter said exceptionally low S&P 500 ETF volume signalled consolidation and had historically preceded pullbacks in the cited examples 13. Cameron Dawson highlighted deteriorating breadth, with much of the index weaker despite the headline market remaining near highs, while technology was described as carrying the market’s gains 1517.

Bitcoin’s maturationEric Balchunas characterised Bitcoin as being in a transition toward a more established asset class after gaining Wall Street, government and ETF acceptance. He said future progress would require lower volatility, weaker correlation, stronger affordability messaging and resilience against quantum, AI or competing-network threats.

Eric Balchunas characterised Bitcoin as being in a transition toward a more established asset class after gaining Wall Street, government and ETF acceptance. He said future progress would require lower volatility, weaker correlation, stronger affordability messaging and resilience against quantum, AI or competing-network threats 35.

Earlier editions

Oct 15 AI optimism remained powerful but contested, while gold advocates made the strongest case for monetary hedges › Oct 14 AI’s boom remains intact, but debate centres on whether frontier-lab revenues can justify its debt-funded cape › Oct 13 AI investment is driving a major capital cycle, but sources disagreed over whether the resulting market exposu › Oct 12 AI concentration and financing risks were the dominant concern, while gold and Bitcoin views diverged sharply. › Oct 11 Gold attracted bullish structural claims, but the broader market discussion stressed fragile AI valuations, in › Oct 10 Gold was discussed with a bullish bias, while AI attracted the clearest disagreement over whether its powerful › Oct 9 The central dispute was whether AI-led demand and asset concentration can persist, or whether inflation, rates › Oct 8 Gold views split between a structural bull case and near-term pressure from yields and Fed hawkishness. ›