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Oct 14 · 34 voices
i

About this edition

27 items · printed Oct 15, 03:35 ET

Tap any number in the text for its receipt — who said it, when, and the clip.

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Hotter inflation reopened the debate over further Fed hikes, even as rising Treasury yields made bonds increasingly competitive with equities.

CPI 3.72% +0.36 pts SepWTI $95.17 +2.1%S&P 500 7,719 −1.1%Fed 4.00%Gold $4,127 −1.2%GDP 2.19% −0.45 pts Aprcloses of Oct 14

The period’s rates discussion centred on hotter US inflation reviving expectations of an October Fed hike, with market-implied probabilities rising to 43% 13 and some observers warning that persistent inflation could require further hikes into December and 2027 3. At the same time, several speakers argued that bonds were becoming more attractive as yields rose, while others emphasised that elevated yields and tightening financial conditions could weaken growth and risk assets 101125. The evidence also covered how rate expectations were affecting gold, equities, credit and sector rotation, but followed topics including Allison Schrager, the Bank for International Settlements, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, bonds, bond yields, diesel prices, HM Treasury, markets, rally, stocks and Trading Analytix received no attention in this pool 238081828384858687888990.

BIJB+2934 voices

What happened

Hotter US inflation lifted market odds of an October Fed rate hike to about 43%.13

1 of 34

Rising Treasury yields made bonds look competitive with equities and prompted rotation into fixed income.112225

3 of 34

Some market participants warned higher yields, wider spreads and weaker breadth signal tightening financial conditions and potential growth fears.127

2 of 34

“Market expectations for an October rate hike surge to 43%”

TK The Kobeissi LetterOct 14 Open the source

Where they disagree

Whether higher yields are primarily an opportunity or a warning of economic stress

TH

Opportunity: bonds attractive25

1 voice

CD

Warning: tightening signs1

1 voice

MH

Warning: high yields weaken growth10

1 voice

The desk

How the desk is calling it

45 of 62 voices expect more hikes from the Fed. Next to settle: FOMC on Oct 28 (1 yes, 1 no); 29 calls open.

Where they stand · the Fed's path

i

Reading the chart

  • expects more hikes
  • expects a pause or cuts
  • expects a hold

dark line: 2-year Treasury yield · stepped line: Fed upper target · both FRED, one % axis

An arrow is one voice's position on the day they took it. Hover or tap an arrow for who it was and what they said.

2-year Treasury yield, 2026-09-11 to 2026-10-13, where the desk's voices took positions4%4.50%5%Sep 15Oct 1Fed upper target2-year yieldhikeLuke Gromen · Sep 14 · down — The Fed should cut rates aggressively and shift issuance to the front end; he expects they will do the wrong thing and not cut yet.Dario Perkins · Sep 15 · up — Perkins expects the Fed to hike rates, largely out of fear of the market's reaction to inaction.Robin Brooks · Sep 15 · up — Brooks thinks markets have priced in more Fed hikes than Warsh can deliver, implying the priced path is too hawkish.Arthur Hayes · Sep 16 · up — Hayes frames the Fed as hiking, and argues that hiking in this environment is stimulative rather than restrictive.Bob Elliott · Sep 16 · up — Elliott argues rates are far too low for current conditions and the Fed will need to hike more than the one-or-two being debated.Dario Perkins · Sep 16 · up — Perkins expects the Fed to hike on a quarterly path, with at least 50bps and likely more.Joseph Wang · Sep 16 · up — Wang expects the Fed to signal a gentle hiking cycle of three hikes.Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · up — The Fed's median dot signalling two more hikes this year is a bit more hawkish than expected, though Warsh will struggle to sound as hawkish as markets want.The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 16 · up — The Fed has begun a new hiking cycle and lower rates are not coming while the energy crisis persists.Weston Nakamura · Sep 16 · up — The Fed is expected to hike 25bp at its September meeting.Jurrien Timmer · Sep 17 · up — Timmer argues the Fed's last two rate cuts were premature and need to be reversed, i.e. policy should be tighter.Robin Brooks · Sep 18 · up — Brooks reads the Fed's move as unambiguously hawkish, hiking to anchor long yields.Warren Pies · Sep 19 · up — The Fed meeting has cleared the path for equities to move higher, implying a dovish policy backdrop.Warren Pies · Sep 21 · up — Pies expects the Fed to deliver one more rate hike.Ben Carlson · Sep 23 · up — Carlson expects the Fed to keep hiking rates.Robin Brooks · Sep 23 · down — Brooks rejects the market's view that the Fed is in a full-blown hiking cycle with hikes in October and December, saying it isn't called for.The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 23 · up — The Fed should have hiked 50bp in September if it is going to hike again in October, implying a hawkish path.Alex Ridgers · Sep 24 · up — He says the market has come out of the Fed meetings with a firmly hawkish view.Arthur Laffer · Sep 24 · up — Laffer wants the discount rate set automatically 25bp above the federal funds rate to discourage borrowing from the Fed.Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · up — Expectations for tighter Fed policy are rising, a hawkish shift.Henry Peabody · Sep 24 · up — Peabody expects the Fed to keep rates higher for longer and possibly go higher than expected, with upward pressure on rates very real.Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He expects the Fed to hike in October and raise rates too many times, staying hawkish longer than people think.Mohamed El-Erian · Sep 24 · up — El-Erian sees the Fed's reform push, including Warsh's pushback on forward guidance, gaining traction abroad and reshaping the institution for the better.Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · up — Fed rate hike expectations for the October meeting have risen above 70%, a hawkish backdrop pressuring metals.DCP · Sep 25 · up — DCP says the market is now pricing four hikes and the Fed cut too much and now has to hike.James Stanley · Sep 25 · up — The Fed hiked and another 25bp hike looks solid, with Warsh's failure to vote for one the only dovish tell.Robin Brooks · Sep 25 · up — Brooks argues the Fed validates high market pricing by hiking, with 70% odds of a hike next month.Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — The Fed is likely to keep hiking until the economy breaks.Joseph Wang · Sep 26 · up — The market is pricing an extra 25bp hike and a higher-for-longer path, with 100bp of hikes priced in.Michael Lebowitz · Sep 26 · up — The Fed will likely hike once or twice more before cutting, and its own projections show a higher funds rate next year.Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · up — Brooks expects the Fed under Warsh to hike on Oct. 28 and markets to price a December hike, a path the Fed cannot sustain.Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead expects the Fed to cut rates 200 basis points when the mania breaks, as it did in 1987.Doomberg · Sep 27 · up — Doomberg expects the new Fed chair to act tough briefly and then relent, as Powell did in 2019, with all roads leading to printing.Robin Brooks · Sep 27 · down — Brooks argues the Fed's hikes will fall short of what markets have priced, since the problem is fiscal rather than monetary.Elizabeth Thomas · Sep 28 · down — She thinks the Fed will have to tap the brakes on its hiking cycle, especially if the war de-escalates and oil falls.James Stanley · Sep 28 · up — Stanley describes a Fed that hiked and gave hawkish assurance of another hike, and may have to get more aggressive if inflation doesn't calm.Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He argues the market is demanding the Fed stop cutting and eventually hike, and that the Fed risks losing the bond market if it doesn't take inflation seriously.Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 29 · up — Rising expectations that the Fed will be forced to tighten further are driving the dollar.Jeffrey Christian · Sep 29 · up — Christian expects the Fed to keep fighting inflation and raise rates at least once or twice more, though not aggressively.Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · up — He expects the Fed to hike a couple more times, having been wrong that they would hold rates flat.Natalie Scott-Gray · Sep 29 · up — The dollar's rise is supported by sticky inflation and expectations that the Fed holds a relatively hawkish line.Steve H. Hanke · Sep 29 · up — With inflation hot and the labor market performing well, Hanke expects the Fed to keep raising interest rates.The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 29 · up — The Fed is about to start raising rates by 50 basis points at a time.Daniel Lacalle · Sep 30 · down — The Fed risks staying tight for too long; policy is overly restrictive and rate hikes are useless for this inflation.Laks Ganapathi · Sep 30 · up — Ganapathi expects the Fed to hike once more this year and then hold until mid-next year — higher for longer.Luke Gromen · Sep 30 · down — Gromen argues the bond market's expectation that Fed rate hikes will calm the long end is wrong and will keep being wrong.Robin Brooks · Sep 30 · down — Brooks argues the Fed should not hike in October given today's inflation data.Rory Johnston · Sep 30 · up — If high prices persist, central banks will keep raising rates to bring the economy into balance.David Hunter · Oct 1 · up — Hunter thinks the current hiking cycle is a one-and-done (or two-and-done) and rates will turn lower.David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · up — Warsh's Fed has pivoted hawkish, hiking rates and pushing markets to price further tightenings.Fiona Cincotta · Oct 1 · up — Cooler core PCE has eased back Fed rate hike expectations for October.Julian Pineda · Oct 1 · up — Pineda says the Fed has turned more aggressive, hiking to 4% and likely continuing to raise rates.Nicky Shiels · Oct 1 · down — The market is pricing too aggressive a hiking cycle; she does not expect the Fed to hike in 2026 and 2027.Robin Brooks · Oct 1 · up — Brooks argues that without forward guidance markets will push for hikes at every meeting, and the Fed is struggling to avoid an October hike.Adam Tooze · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to raise rates for the rest of this year, a shift from prior bets on cuts.Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further, with a hike already delivered and more hawkish rhetoric and balance-sheet action to come.Dario Perkins · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to hike too much at some point in the next 18 months.Michael Boutros · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further into year end, with markets pricing a 67% chance of a 25bp hike in October.Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Federal Reserve to hike again this year.Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Fed to raise rates, saying they don't need to hike into a softening economy.Vincent Daniel · Oct 2 · steady — Says we are probably done with rates at 0% or 1% — the era of ultra-low rates is over.James Stanley · Oct 3 · up — Expects the hawkish Fed to hike again, with the strong CPI print leading to another rate hike.Lance Roberts · Oct 3 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold rates at the next meeting and possibly for a long time.Aidan Garrib · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to hike more, with the market pricing a higher terminal rate.Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects the Fed to eventually step in with massive stimulus and cuts, and calls talk of an October hike ridiculous.Michael Pento · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to keep raising the Fed funds rate, with multiple rate hikes, to prick the AI investment bubble.Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Agrees the rates move has been a Fed rate-path re-rating, with the market pricing more tightening.Tony Greer · Oct 5 · up — Expects another hike is needed, saying there will have to be another hike in here somewhere.Natalie Scott-Gray · Oct 6 · up — Expects a single Federal Reserve rate hike in December, keeping the base case unchanged despite the fall in October hike odds.Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · up — Expects the Fed to hike once, maybe twice more this year.Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · down — Expects the Fed to cut rates after the midterms.Jurrien Timmer · Oct 7 · up — Expects the Fed to take back its 2025 rate cuts, i.e. hike, because the market is demanding it.Michael Boutros · Oct 7 · steady — Expects no Fed rate hike this month, with markets pricing about an 80% chance of at least 25bp of cuts before year end.steph pomboy · Oct 7 · steady — Expects the Fed is one and done and will not continue raising rates.Warren Pies · Oct 7 · up — Expects the Fed to deliver a two-hike "mini-cycle" rather than a single hike.Adrian Day · Oct 8 · up — Expects the Fed to hike another quarter point this year, though its room to raise rates is very limited.Luke Gromen · Oct 8 · down — Expects the Fed to need significantly negative real rates to deflate the debt.Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 9 · up — Says the Fed remains quite hawkish with most policymakers seeing another rate increase as appropriate by year-end, though he thinks market pricing of further tightening is too aggressive.Gary Wagner · Oct 9 · up — Expects at least one Fed rate hike by December, possibly two, with a small chance as soon as October.James Stanley · Oct 9 · up — Says the Fed is in an uber-hawkish mode and may have to continue hiking if inflation hasn't come down.Peter Boockvar · Oct 9 · up — Expects the Fed to hike rates twice this year, with the market leading the Fed rather than the reverse.Joseph Wang · Oct 10 · up — Expects no October move but a December hike and likely one more after that, with two more hikes on a quarterly cadence as the base case.Brent Johnson · Oct 11 · steady — Expects the functions of the Fed and the Treasury to be merged in the years ahead.John Feneck · Oct 11 · steady — Says the Fed will not raise two or three times next year, dismissing hawkish Fed talk.Natalie Scott-Gray · Oct 11 · up — Expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates by a further 25 basis points by December.Robin Brooks · Oct 11 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold for now, with no hikes as aggressive as priced and cuts not arriving until 2027.Dan Nathan · Oct 12 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold at the October 28 meeting, with Fed funds futures now pricing roughly 75% odds of no hike.Ben Inker · Oct 13 · down — Expects the Fed has plenty of room to lower rates if the economy stalls into recession.Cameron Dawson · Oct 13 · up — Expects the Fed to hike further, having already hiked, shifting from dovish expectations to hawkish.Dan Nathan · Oct 13 · down — Expects the Fed to deliver another 25 basis point cut, as the Fed funds futures market implies.Michael Howell · Oct 13 · steady — Expects the Fed to go at half speed, with tightening scope significantly reduced rather than any aggressive moves.Robin Brooks · Oct 13 · up — Expects an October Fed hike is back on the table.
2-year Treasury yield, 2026-09-16 to 2026-10-13, where the desk's voices took positions4%4.50%5%Oct 1Fed upper target2-year yieldhikeArthur Hayes · Sep 16 · up — Hayes frames the Fed as hiking, and argues that hiking in this environment is stimulative rather than restrictive.Bob Elliott · Sep 16 · up — Elliott argues rates are far too low for current conditions and the Fed will need to hike more than the one-or-two being debated.Dario Perkins · Sep 16 · up — Perkins expects the Fed to hike on a quarterly path, with at least 50bps and likely more.Joseph Wang · Sep 16 · up — Wang expects the Fed to signal a gentle hiking cycle of three hikes.Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · up — The Fed's median dot signalling two more hikes this year is a bit more hawkish than expected, though Warsh will struggle to sound as hawkish as markets want.The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 16 · up — The Fed has begun a new hiking cycle and lower rates are not coming while the energy crisis persists.Weston Nakamura · Sep 16 · up — The Fed is expected to hike 25bp at its September meeting.Jurrien Timmer · Sep 17 · up — Timmer argues the Fed's last two rate cuts were premature and need to be reversed, i.e. policy should be tighter.Robin Brooks · Sep 18 · up — Brooks reads the Fed's move as unambiguously hawkish, hiking to anchor long yields.Warren Pies · Sep 19 · up — The Fed meeting has cleared the path for equities to move higher, implying a dovish policy backdrop.Warren Pies · Sep 21 · up — Pies expects the Fed to deliver one more rate hike.Ben Carlson · Sep 23 · up — Carlson expects the Fed to keep hiking rates.Robin Brooks · Sep 23 · down — Brooks rejects the market's view that the Fed is in a full-blown hiking cycle with hikes in October and December, saying it isn't called for.The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 23 · up — The Fed should have hiked 50bp in September if it is going to hike again in October, implying a hawkish path.Alex Ridgers · Sep 24 · up — He says the market has come out of the Fed meetings with a firmly hawkish view.Arthur Laffer · Sep 24 · up — Laffer wants the discount rate set automatically 25bp above the federal funds rate to discourage borrowing from the Fed.Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · up — Expectations for tighter Fed policy are rising, a hawkish shift.Henry Peabody · Sep 24 · up — Peabody expects the Fed to keep rates higher for longer and possibly go higher than expected, with upward pressure on rates very real.Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He expects the Fed to hike in October and raise rates too many times, staying hawkish longer than people think.Mohamed El-Erian · Sep 24 · up — El-Erian sees the Fed's reform push, including Warsh's pushback on forward guidance, gaining traction abroad and reshaping the institution for the better.Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · up — Fed rate hike expectations for the October meeting have risen above 70%, a hawkish backdrop pressuring metals.DCP · Sep 25 · up — DCP says the market is now pricing four hikes and the Fed cut too much and now has to hike.James Stanley · Sep 25 · up — The Fed hiked and another 25bp hike looks solid, with Warsh's failure to vote for one the only dovish tell.Robin Brooks · Sep 25 · up — Brooks argues the Fed validates high market pricing by hiking, with 70% odds of a hike next month.Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — The Fed is likely to keep hiking until the economy breaks.Joseph Wang · Sep 26 · up — The market is pricing an extra 25bp hike and a higher-for-longer path, with 100bp of hikes priced in.Michael Lebowitz · Sep 26 · up — The Fed will likely hike once or twice more before cutting, and its own projections show a higher funds rate next year.Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · up — Brooks expects the Fed under Warsh to hike on Oct. 28 and markets to price a December hike, a path the Fed cannot sustain.Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead expects the Fed to cut rates 200 basis points when the mania breaks, as it did in 1987.Doomberg · Sep 27 · up — Doomberg expects the new Fed chair to act tough briefly and then relent, as Powell did in 2019, with all roads leading to printing.Robin Brooks · Sep 27 · down — Brooks argues the Fed's hikes will fall short of what markets have priced, since the problem is fiscal rather than monetary.Elizabeth Thomas · Sep 28 · down — She thinks the Fed will have to tap the brakes on its hiking cycle, especially if the war de-escalates and oil falls.James Stanley · Sep 28 · up — Stanley describes a Fed that hiked and gave hawkish assurance of another hike, and may have to get more aggressive if inflation doesn't calm.Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He argues the market is demanding the Fed stop cutting and eventually hike, and that the Fed risks losing the bond market if it doesn't take inflation seriously.Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 29 · up — Rising expectations that the Fed will be forced to tighten further are driving the dollar.Jeffrey Christian · Sep 29 · up — Christian expects the Fed to keep fighting inflation and raise rates at least once or twice more, though not aggressively.Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · up — He expects the Fed to hike a couple more times, having been wrong that they would hold rates flat.Natalie Scott-Gray · Sep 29 · up — The dollar's rise is supported by sticky inflation and expectations that the Fed holds a relatively hawkish line.Steve H. Hanke · Sep 29 · up — With inflation hot and the labor market performing well, Hanke expects the Fed to keep raising interest rates.The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 29 · up — The Fed is about to start raising rates by 50 basis points at a time.Daniel Lacalle · Sep 30 · down — The Fed risks staying tight for too long; policy is overly restrictive and rate hikes are useless for this inflation.Laks Ganapathi · Sep 30 · up — Ganapathi expects the Fed to hike once more this year and then hold until mid-next year — higher for longer.Luke Gromen · Sep 30 · down — Gromen argues the bond market's expectation that Fed rate hikes will calm the long end is wrong and will keep being wrong.Robin Brooks · Sep 30 · down — Brooks argues the Fed should not hike in October given today's inflation data.Rory Johnston · Sep 30 · up — If high prices persist, central banks will keep raising rates to bring the economy into balance.David Hunter · Oct 1 · up — Hunter thinks the current hiking cycle is a one-and-done (or two-and-done) and rates will turn lower.David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · up — Warsh's Fed has pivoted hawkish, hiking rates and pushing markets to price further tightenings.Fiona Cincotta · Oct 1 · up — Cooler core PCE has eased back Fed rate hike expectations for October.Julian Pineda · Oct 1 · up — Pineda says the Fed has turned more aggressive, hiking to 4% and likely continuing to raise rates.Nicky Shiels · Oct 1 · down — The market is pricing too aggressive a hiking cycle; she does not expect the Fed to hike in 2026 and 2027.Robin Brooks · Oct 1 · up — Brooks argues that without forward guidance markets will push for hikes at every meeting, and the Fed is struggling to avoid an October hike.Adam Tooze · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to raise rates for the rest of this year, a shift from prior bets on cuts.Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further, with a hike already delivered and more hawkish rhetoric and balance-sheet action to come.Dario Perkins · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to hike too much at some point in the next 18 months.Michael Boutros · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further into year end, with markets pricing a 67% chance of a 25bp hike in October.Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Federal Reserve to hike again this year.Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Fed to raise rates, saying they don't need to hike into a softening economy.Vincent Daniel · Oct 2 · steady — Says we are probably done with rates at 0% or 1% — the era of ultra-low rates is over.James Stanley · Oct 3 · up — Expects the hawkish Fed to hike again, with the strong CPI print leading to another rate hike.Lance Roberts · Oct 3 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold rates at the next meeting and possibly for a long time.Aidan Garrib · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to hike more, with the market pricing a higher terminal rate.Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects the Fed to eventually step in with massive stimulus and cuts, and calls talk of an October hike ridiculous.Michael Pento · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to keep raising the Fed funds rate, with multiple rate hikes, to prick the AI investment bubble.Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Agrees the rates move has been a Fed rate-path re-rating, with the market pricing more tightening.Tony Greer · Oct 5 · up — Expects another hike is needed, saying there will have to be another hike in here somewhere.Natalie Scott-Gray · Oct 6 · up — Expects a single Federal Reserve rate hike in December, keeping the base case unchanged despite the fall in October hike odds.Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · up — Expects the Fed to hike once, maybe twice more this year.Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · down — Expects the Fed to cut rates after the midterms.Jurrien Timmer · Oct 7 · up — Expects the Fed to take back its 2025 rate cuts, i.e. hike, because the market is demanding it.Michael Boutros · Oct 7 · steady — Expects no Fed rate hike this month, with markets pricing about an 80% chance of at least 25bp of cuts before year end.steph pomboy · Oct 7 · steady — Expects the Fed is one and done and will not continue raising rates.Warren Pies · Oct 7 · up — Expects the Fed to deliver a two-hike "mini-cycle" rather than a single hike.Adrian Day · Oct 8 · up — Expects the Fed to hike another quarter point this year, though its room to raise rates is very limited.Luke Gromen · Oct 8 · down — Expects the Fed to need significantly negative real rates to deflate the debt.Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 9 · up — Says the Fed remains quite hawkish with most policymakers seeing another rate increase as appropriate by year-end, though he thinks market pricing of further tightening is too aggressive.Gary Wagner · Oct 9 · up — Expects at least one Fed rate hike by December, possibly two, with a small chance as soon as October.James Stanley · Oct 9 · up — Says the Fed is in an uber-hawkish mode and may have to continue hiking if inflation hasn't come down.Peter Boockvar · Oct 9 · up — Expects the Fed to hike rates twice this year, with the market leading the Fed rather than the reverse.Joseph Wang · Oct 10 · up — Expects no October move but a December hike and likely one more after that, with two more hikes on a quarterly cadence as the base case.Brent Johnson · Oct 11 · steady — Expects the functions of the Fed and the Treasury to be merged in the years ahead.John Feneck · Oct 11 · steady — Says the Fed will not raise two or three times next year, dismissing hawkish Fed talk.Natalie Scott-Gray · Oct 11 · up — Expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates by a further 25 basis points by December.Robin Brooks · Oct 11 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold for now, with no hikes as aggressive as priced and cuts not arriving until 2027.Dan Nathan · Oct 12 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold at the October 28 meeting, with Fed funds futures now pricing roughly 75% odds of no hike.Ben Inker · Oct 13 · down — Expects the Fed has plenty of room to lower rates if the economy stalls into recession.Cameron Dawson · Oct 13 · up — Expects the Fed to hike further, having already hiked, shifting from dovish expectations to hawkish.Dan Nathan · Oct 13 · down — Expects the Fed to deliver another 25 basis point cut, as the Fed funds futures market implies.Michael Howell · Oct 13 · steady — Expects the Fed to go at half speed, with tightening scope significantly reduced rather than any aggressive moves.Robin Brooks · Oct 13 · up — Expects an October Fed hike is back on the table.
2-year Treasury yield, 2026-07-16 to 2026-10-13, with 62 desk voices' positions4%4.50%5%Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1Fed upper target2-year yieldhikeLuke Gromen · Sep 14 · down — The Fed should cut rates aggressively and shift issuance to the front end; he expects they will do the wrong thing and not cut yet.Dario Perkins · Sep 15 · up — Perkins expects the Fed to hike rates, largely out of fear of the market's reaction to inaction.Robin Brooks · Sep 15 · up — Brooks thinks markets have priced in more Fed hikes than Warsh can deliver, implying the priced path is too hawkish.Arthur Hayes · Sep 16 · up — Hayes frames the Fed as hiking, and argues that hiking in this environment is stimulative rather than restrictive.Bob Elliott · Sep 16 · up — Elliott argues rates are far too low for current conditions and the Fed will need to hike more than the one-or-two being debated.Dario Perkins · Sep 16 · up — Perkins expects the Fed to hike on a quarterly path, with at least 50bps and likely more.Joseph Wang · Sep 16 · up — Wang expects the Fed to signal a gentle hiking cycle of three hikes.Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · up — The Fed's median dot signalling two more hikes this year is a bit more hawkish than expected, though Warsh will struggle to sound as hawkish as markets want.The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 16 · up — The Fed has begun a new hiking cycle and lower rates are not coming while the energy crisis persists.Weston Nakamura · Sep 16 · up — The Fed is expected to hike 25bp at its September meeting.Jurrien Timmer · Sep 17 · up — Timmer argues the Fed's last two rate cuts were premature and need to be reversed, i.e. policy should be tighter.Robin Brooks · Sep 18 · up — Brooks reads the Fed's move as unambiguously hawkish, hiking to anchor long yields.Warren Pies · Sep 19 · up — The Fed meeting has cleared the path for equities to move higher, implying a dovish policy backdrop.Warren Pies · Sep 21 · up — Pies expects the Fed to deliver one more rate hike.Ben Carlson · Sep 23 · up — Carlson expects the Fed to keep hiking rates.Robin Brooks · Sep 23 · down — Brooks rejects the market's view that the Fed is in a full-blown hiking cycle with hikes in October and December, saying it isn't called for.The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 23 · up — The Fed should have hiked 50bp in September if it is going to hike again in October, implying a hawkish path.Alex Ridgers · Sep 24 · up — He says the market has come out of the Fed meetings with a firmly hawkish view.Arthur Laffer · Sep 24 · up — Laffer wants the discount rate set automatically 25bp above the federal funds rate to discourage borrowing from the Fed.Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · up — Expectations for tighter Fed policy are rising, a hawkish shift.Henry Peabody · Sep 24 · up — Peabody expects the Fed to keep rates higher for longer and possibly go higher than expected, with upward pressure on rates very real.Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · up — He expects the Fed to hike in October and raise rates too many times, staying hawkish longer than people think.Mohamed El-Erian · Sep 24 · up — El-Erian sees the Fed's reform push, including Warsh's pushback on forward guidance, gaining traction abroad and reshaping the institution for the better.Razan Hilal · Sep 24 · up — Fed rate hike expectations for the October meeting have risen above 70%, a hawkish backdrop pressuring metals.DCP · Sep 25 · up — DCP says the market is now pricing four hikes and the Fed cut too much and now has to hike.James Stanley · Sep 25 · up — The Fed hiked and another 25bp hike looks solid, with Warsh's failure to vote for one the only dovish tell.Robin Brooks · Sep 25 · up — Brooks argues the Fed validates high market pricing by hiking, with 70% odds of a hike next month.Jeff Snider · Sep 26 · up — The Fed is likely to keep hiking until the economy breaks.Joseph Wang · Sep 26 · up — The market is pricing an extra 25bp hike and a higher-for-longer path, with 100bp of hikes priced in.Michael Lebowitz · Sep 26 · up — The Fed will likely hike once or twice more before cutting, and its own projections show a higher funds rate next year.Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · up — Brooks expects the Fed under Warsh to hike on Oct. 28 and markets to price a December hike, a path the Fed cannot sustain.Bill Smead · Sep 27 · up — Smead expects the Fed to cut rates 200 basis points when the mania breaks, as it did in 1987.Doomberg · Sep 27 · up — Doomberg expects the new Fed chair to act tough briefly and then relent, as Powell did in 2019, with all roads leading to printing.Robin Brooks · Sep 27 · down — Brooks argues the Fed's hikes will fall short of what markets have priced, since the problem is fiscal rather than monetary.Elizabeth Thomas · Sep 28 · down — She thinks the Fed will have to tap the brakes on its hiking cycle, especially if the war de-escalates and oil falls.James Stanley · Sep 28 · up — Stanley describes a Fed that hiked and gave hawkish assurance of another hike, and may have to get more aggressive if inflation doesn't calm.Jim Bianco · Sep 28 · up — He argues the market is demanding the Fed stop cutting and eventually hike, and that the Fed risks losing the bond market if it doesn't take inflation seriously.Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 29 · up — Rising expectations that the Fed will be forced to tighten further are driving the dollar.Jeffrey Christian · Sep 29 · up — Christian expects the Fed to keep fighting inflation and raise rates at least once or twice more, though not aggressively.Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · up — He expects the Fed to hike a couple more times, having been wrong that they would hold rates flat.Natalie Scott-Gray · Sep 29 · up — The dollar's rise is supported by sticky inflation and expectations that the Fed holds a relatively hawkish line.Steve H. Hanke · Sep 29 · up — With inflation hot and the labor market performing well, Hanke expects the Fed to keep raising interest rates.The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 29 · up — The Fed is about to start raising rates by 50 basis points at a time.Daniel Lacalle · Sep 30 · down — The Fed risks staying tight for too long; policy is overly restrictive and rate hikes are useless for this inflation.Laks Ganapathi · Sep 30 · up — Ganapathi expects the Fed to hike once more this year and then hold until mid-next year — higher for longer.Luke Gromen · Sep 30 · down — Gromen argues the bond market's expectation that Fed rate hikes will calm the long end is wrong and will keep being wrong.Robin Brooks · Sep 30 · down — Brooks argues the Fed should not hike in October given today's inflation data.Rory Johnston · Sep 30 · up — If high prices persist, central banks will keep raising rates to bring the economy into balance.David Hunter · Oct 1 · up — Hunter thinks the current hiking cycle is a one-and-done (or two-and-done) and rates will turn lower.David Rosenberg · Oct 1 · up — Warsh's Fed has pivoted hawkish, hiking rates and pushing markets to price further tightenings.Fiona Cincotta · Oct 1 · up — Cooler core PCE has eased back Fed rate hike expectations for October.Julian Pineda · Oct 1 · up — Pineda says the Fed has turned more aggressive, hiking to 4% and likely continuing to raise rates.Nicky Shiels · Oct 1 · down — The market is pricing too aggressive a hiking cycle; she does not expect the Fed to hike in 2026 and 2027.Robin Brooks · Oct 1 · up — Brooks argues that without forward guidance markets will push for hikes at every meeting, and the Fed is struggling to avoid an October hike.Adam Tooze · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to raise rates for the rest of this year, a shift from prior bets on cuts.Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further, with a hike already delivered and more hawkish rhetoric and balance-sheet action to come.Dario Perkins · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to hike too much at some point in the next 18 months.Michael Boutros · Oct 2 · up — Expects the Fed to tighten further into year end, with markets pricing a 67% chance of a 25bp hike in October.Paul Cronin · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Federal Reserve to hike again this year.Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · steady — Does not expect the Fed to raise rates, saying they don't need to hike into a softening economy.Vincent Daniel · Oct 2 · steady — Says we are probably done with rates at 0% or 1% — the era of ultra-low rates is over.James Stanley · Oct 3 · up — Expects the hawkish Fed to hike again, with the strong CPI print leading to another rate hike.Lance Roberts · Oct 3 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold rates at the next meeting and possibly for a long time.Aidan Garrib · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to hike more, with the market pricing a higher terminal rate.Henrik Zeberg · Oct 4 · down — Expects the Fed to eventually step in with massive stimulus and cuts, and calls talk of an October hike ridiculous.Michael Pento · Oct 4 · up — Expects the Fed to keep raising the Fed funds rate, with multiple rate hikes, to prick the AI investment bubble.Quinn Thompson · Oct 4 · up — Agrees the rates move has been a Fed rate-path re-rating, with the market pricing more tightening.Tony Greer · Oct 5 · up — Expects another hike is needed, saying there will have to be another hike in here somewhere.Natalie Scott-Gray · Oct 6 · up — Expects a single Federal Reserve rate hike in December, keeping the base case unchanged despite the fall in October hike odds.Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · up — Expects the Fed to hike once, maybe twice more this year.Clem Chambers · Oct 7 · down — Expects the Fed to cut rates after the midterms.Jurrien Timmer · Oct 7 · up — Expects the Fed to take back its 2025 rate cuts, i.e. hike, because the market is demanding it.Michael Boutros · Oct 7 · steady — Expects no Fed rate hike this month, with markets pricing about an 80% chance of at least 25bp of cuts before year end.steph pomboy · Oct 7 · steady — Expects the Fed is one and done and will not continue raising rates.Warren Pies · Oct 7 · up — Expects the Fed to deliver a two-hike "mini-cycle" rather than a single hike.Adrian Day · Oct 8 · up — Expects the Fed to hike another quarter point this year, though its room to raise rates is very limited.Luke Gromen · Oct 8 · down — Expects the Fed to need significantly negative real rates to deflate the debt.Fawad Razaqzada · Oct 9 · up — Says the Fed remains quite hawkish with most policymakers seeing another rate increase as appropriate by year-end, though he thinks market pricing of further tightening is too aggressive.Gary Wagner · Oct 9 · up — Expects at least one Fed rate hike by December, possibly two, with a small chance as soon as October.James Stanley · Oct 9 · up — Says the Fed is in an uber-hawkish mode and may have to continue hiking if inflation hasn't come down.Peter Boockvar · Oct 9 · up — Expects the Fed to hike rates twice this year, with the market leading the Fed rather than the reverse.Joseph Wang · Oct 10 · up — Expects no October move but a December hike and likely one more after that, with two more hikes on a quarterly cadence as the base case.Brent Johnson · Oct 11 · steady — Expects the functions of the Fed and the Treasury to be merged in the years ahead.John Feneck · Oct 11 · steady — Says the Fed will not raise two or three times next year, dismissing hawkish Fed talk.Natalie Scott-Gray · Oct 11 · up — Expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates by a further 25 basis points by December.Robin Brooks · Oct 11 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold for now, with no hikes as aggressive as priced and cuts not arriving until 2027.Dan Nathan · Oct 12 · steady — Expects the Fed to hold at the October 28 meeting, with Fed funds futures now pricing roughly 75% odds of no hike.Ben Inker · Oct 13 · down — Expects the Fed has plenty of room to lower rates if the economy stalls into recession.Cameron Dawson · Oct 13 · up — Expects the Fed to hike further, having already hiked, shifting from dovish expectations to hawkish.Dan Nathan · Oct 13 · down — Expects the Fed to deliver another 25 basis point cut, as the Fed funds futures market implies.Michael Howell · Oct 13 · steady — Expects the Fed to go at half speed, with tightening scope significantly reduced rather than any aggressive moves.Robin Brooks · Oct 13 · up — Expects an October Fed hike is back on the table.

The 2-year, the market's read of the path, rose from 4.16% to 4.79% since Jul 16. The desk's voices, as each stands now: 45 expect more hikes, 8 expect a pause or cuts, 9 expect a hold.

Their record

○bond yields will rise significantly over the next two to three months: Alasdair Macleod.
○monetary inflation running at 7%-8% per annum: Michael Howell.
○AI bubble bursts within 12-18 months: Ben Inker.

What settles next

Near the mark

○ Open · by Jun 30

Gary Wagner: “gold to a new high by Q1/Q2 next year”

COMEX gold futures with Gary Wagner's target ≥ $4,212$4,000$4,250$4,500$4,750Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1target ≥ $4,212Gary Wagner · Oct 9 · up — Expects gold to bottom here and rally to a possible new high by Q1/Q2 of next year, over the next six to eight months.
They said
Oct 9: Expects gold to bottom here and rally to a possible new high by Q1/Q2 of next year, over the next six to eight months.
Distance
$4,127 now, +2.1% to go by Jun 30, 2027.
source ↗
○ Open · by Dec 31

Gareth Soloway: “S&P 500 to 8,000 by year end”

S&P 500 with Gareth Soloway's target ≥ 8,0007,2507,5007,7508,000Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1target ≥ 8,000Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575.
They said
Oct 6: Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575.
Distance
7,719 now, +3.6% to go by Dec 31.
source ↗
28 OctFOMC · Wed
Hike on Oct 28? 1 say yes, 1 say no.
Keith McCulloughRobin Brooks
Settles from the target range after the 14:00 ET decision.
29 OctGDP · Thu
No dated calls yet.Settles on the Gross Domestic Product print, 08:30 ET (FRED GDPC1).
3 NovWTI · Tue
Gareth Soloway: “WTI to $78 by the midterms” (Oct 6). WTI is at $95.17, −18.0% to go.Settles on the close of Nov 3 (WTI crude futures).
10 NovCPI · Tue
No dated calls yet.Settles on the Consumer Price Index print, 08:30 ET (FRED CPIAUCSL, CPILFESL).
31 DecFed · Thu
Hike by Dec 31? 1 say yes, 1 say no.
Laks GanapathiPaul Cronin
Settles on the close of Dec 31 (FRED DFEDTARU).
31 DecFed · Thu
Hike by Dec 31? 5 say yes, 0 say no.
Natalie Scott-GrayTodd HorwitzAdrian DayGary WagnerJoseph Wang
Settles on the close of Dec 31 (FRED DFEDTARU).
31 DecWTI · Thu
Todd Horwitz: “oil below $70 before year end” (Oct 6). WTI is at $95.17, −26.4% to go.Settles on the close of Dec 31 (WTI crude futures).
31 DecFed · Thu
Peter Boockvar: “two Fed rate hikes this year” (Oct 9). Fed is at 4.00%.Settles on the close of Dec 31 (FRED DFEDTARU).

The voices

TH

Thomas Hayes

Higher Treasury yields are already driving a rotation toward bonds as investors can lock in attractive guaranteed yields versus uncertain equity earnings, prompting reallocations into treasuries and defensive sectors.25

CD

Cameron Dawson

Wider spreads, deteriorating breadth and rising yields are signs financial conditions are tightening and could presage broader growth worries if the trend continues.1

MH

Michael Howell

Sustained high yields and related pressures will weaken growth and set up the potential for a significant bond-market rally as investors reposition away from riskier assets.10

RW

Robin Wigglesworth

Bonds are tradable loans and the big treasury market sets the global cost of money, so rising yields materially change capital allocation decisions.22

WR

Wolf Richter

After years of low yields, treasuries are becoming mildly appealing again and I'm shifting into bonds as they offer returns that were previously unobtainable.11

17 of this desk's 34 voices spoke · Quiet: Amena Bakr, Anas Alhajji, Arnaud Bertrand, Blake Morrow, Brent Johnson, Eric Balchunas, Erik Townsend, jeroen blokland, Josh Linville, Luke Gromen, Michael Every, Mohamed El-Erian, Peter Boockvar, Quinn Thompson, steph pomboy, Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ), Warren Pies

On the record

inflationSteve H. Hanke, Cameron Dawson +18

Steve H. Hanke Expects inflation to stay elevated and run above target because broad money supply growth (Divisia M4 at ~7.5%) exceeds the ~6% golden growth rate.↗

Cameron Dawson expects inflationary pressure from food and energy may spread into other areas, pushing inflation up.↗

Javier Blas Sees inflation high and rising but in the 3-3.5% range, nothing like 2022.↗

Michael Howell Expects monetary inflation to run at 7%-8% per annum, with underlying high-street inflation around 5%-6% — a steady rate of higher inflation, not hyperinflation.↗

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Wolf Richter Expects inflation to stay up in the 3-5% range rather than return to 2%.↗

Lucio Arrocha Expects Argentine inflation around 20% next year, down from roughly 30% this year.↗

James Stanley Expects the Fed to get inflation down first before it can pursue another round of QE.↗

Natalie Scott-Gray Expects inflation to stay sticky, keeping central banks hawkish.↗

Peter Schiff Expects inflation to keep rising faster than rates, potentially to 10-15% a year.↗

Danielle Park Expects higher rates to bring more disinflationary pressure, deflation in some things and disinflation in others.↗

Richard D. Wolff Expects US inflation to rise further, saying the biggest impact is yet to come as oil prices push through.↗

Lance Roberts Expects the long-term trend to remain disinflationary for the economy because of costs and deficits.↗

Adam Taggart Expects disinflation over this period, absent the Iran war's oil price increase.↗

Chris Marcus Expects consumer prices to rise more than they already have, making life harder for many people.↗

Gary Wagner Expects inflation to rise, driven by elevated crude oil prices.↗

Fawad Razaqzada Expects higher oil prices to feed into inflation, keeping inflation persistent.↗

Mike McGlone Sees post-inflation deflation as the next big trade, expecting inflation to give way to deflation.↗

Adrian Day Expects inflation to remain very stubborn, with the Fed intent on bringing it down to 2%.↗

Luke Gromen Expects inflation to run hot as the only viable way out of the U.S. debt problem, citing 8-12% inflation in the COVID episode.↗

jim iuorio Expects the disinflationary force of AI to eventually win out over the inflationary AI build-out, with inflation cooling.↗

AIAlexander De Croo, Wolf Richter +17

Alexander De Croo Sees technology including AI as an incredible accelerator of development, with the upside outweighing the downside.↗

Wolf Richter Expects AI-related stocks to suffer a major sell-off of 80-90% when AI spending slows.↗

Ben Inker Expects the AI bubble to burst, with equity supply as the catalyst over the next 12 to 18 months.↗

Deirdre Bosa Expects AI adoption to keep rising, which is positive for AI as long as adoption continues.↗

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Thomas Hayes Bullish on AI beneficiaries, expecting the technology to increase productivity, margins and GDP growth long term, while avoiding the capex-financed side.↗

Peter Berezin Expects the AI CapEx boom to turn to bust, with stocks peaking around 2027 and CapEx peaking around 2028.↗

@profplum99 Expects AI to keep changing the economy, dismissing the 'never different this time' view.↗

Danielle Park Expects AI revenue per user to keep declining as capacity buildout continues.↗

Bob Elliott Expects the AI demand story to fail, since it would require all non-tech companies to bet their entire free cashflow on AI by 2030.↗

Jordi Visser Expects the AI trade to keep climbing, saying the ride is just beginning despite bubble talk.↗

Joseph Wang Believes AI is a huge bubble but expects it can go much higher, with the only way out being some kind of blow-off.↗

Chris Marcus Expects AI progress and productivity gains to accelerate and cannot be stopped.↗

The Kobeissi Letter Expects AI to become one of the largest spending categories in the US economy, with AI companies generating ~$3.5 trillion in annual revenue by 2032.↗

Afra Wang Expects AI to be the force that takes China to its next industrial upgrade, which is why people rush to adopt it.↗

Luke Gromen Expects the AI productivity miracle to disappoint — it is not going to plan.↗

Brent Johnson Expects AI to be a step-change positive for humanity over the long arc, though with short-term unemployment bumps.↗

jim iuorio Expects the AI trade to keep running as a mania driving the economy and share prices, though he warns it is a bubble that will eventually burst.↗

Adam Taggart Believes AI will unlock gargantuan opportunity for the entrepreneurial-minded, and expects it to be deflationary if it plays out.↗

Stacy Rasgon Expects AI demand to be real and to keep strengthening, with returns on the investment materializing.↗

goldAlasdair Macleod, Michael Howell +14

Alasdair Macleod Expects gold to rise sharply over the next six to twelve months, doubling, tripling or quadrupling as currencies fall.↗

Michael Howell Expects gold to keep pace with rising US debt and to stabilize and push up once China turns its money taps on again.↗

Gary Bohm Sees a collective global print cycle and fiat debasement making gold the safe place to be.↗

Tavi Costa Expects gold to rise substantially from here, calling it extremely attractive after the 25% correction and a secular bull market that could reach $15,000-$30,000 an ounce one day.↗

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Luke Gromen Expects gold to reach $22,000/oz, the level at which China's YTD gold imports would balance its YTD trade surplus.↗

Anthony Moreau Expects gold prices to go higher.↗

jeroen blokland Expects gold to rise, with China buying unprecedented amounts and readers told to act accordingly.↗

Peter Schiff Expects rising nominal rates with faster inflation to be bullish for gold.↗

David Scutt Expects gold's breakout to extend, targeting $4,225–$4,235 an ounce initially, then $4,300, $4,333 and $4,400.↗

Robin Brooks Expects the reasons for gold to stage another rally are building.↗

Chris Marcus Expects a gold revaluation — either government-led or forced by the market — and says it is already underway.↗

Gary Wagner Expects gold to bottom here and rally to a possible new high by Q1/Q2 of next year, over the next six to eight months.↗

Matt Simpson Expects gold to hold above the 4,000 level and sees upside potential over the near term, though not a new record high soon.↗

Adrian Day Expects gold to stay in a soft, volatile trading range and not break out to $5,000 while interest rates keep backing up.↗

Brent Johnson Expects gold to make a fairly big move higher in the next few weeks, though he would buy a lower low if wrong.↗

jim iuorio Expects gold and silver to be the place to be if the Fed starts buying long-end bonds and the debasement trade returns.↗

USSteve H. Hanke, Alasdair Macleod +13

Steve H. Hanke Expects no US recession anytime soon because the money supply is still growing.↗

Alasdair Macleod Expects the US Treasury to inflate away its debt, implying a massive devaluation of the dollar.↗

ʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹq Expects the US economy to wobble if financial conditions around AI capex deteriorate, since it rests on a single AI-driven story.↗

Wolf Richter Expects the US economy to keep running hot, with strong nominal growth and inflation staying elevated.↗

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Robin Wigglesworth Expects the US economy to keep growing at a fast rate and does not worry about the US going bust anytime soon.↗

The Kobeissi Letter Expects the US fiscal deficit to widen to -6.1% of GDP in 2027, the largest among major developed economies.↗

Ananth Krishnan Expects India-US relations to remain difficult for now, though the relationship stays important to India.↗

Tavi Costa Expects the US to inflate its way out of its debt problem rather than deflate, with a 75-80% probability.↗

Grant Cardone Expects the US economy to enter the greatest economic expansion since the Industrial Revolution, and to be deflationary rather than inflationary.↗

Peter Schiff Expects higher rates to create a lot of problems in the US economy, which was built on real estate.↗

Richard D. Wolff Expects American politics and consciousness to tilt back toward government actively improving average people's lives, with more socialists winning office in US cities.↗

Nate Donnay Expects US milk production growth to stay above 2% as the herd expansion supports output.↗

Luke Gromen Expects an austerity-driven US recession to trigger debt collapse, banking system collapse and hyperinflation versus gold.↗

Brent Johnson Expects the U.S. to consolidate power and remain the dominant global power rather than decline, likening it to Republican Rome becoming the Empire.↗

Jurrien Timmer Expects US earnings and payout growth to be peaking, with the second derivative due to roll over.↗

oilSteve H. Hanke, Alasdair Macleod +12

Steve H. Hanke Expects physical oil prices to stay high, with landed physical prices running 35-40% above quoted futures prices, due to low inventories and logistical bottlenecks.↗

Alasdair Macleod Expects oil and other commodities to rise roughly fourfold in gold terms as suppressed prices revert toward par.↗

Javier Blas Remains bearish relative to very bullish takes; does not see oil going to $150, $175 or $200 a barrel.↗

Amena Bakr Expects oil prices to rise given escalating conflict, exposed energy infrastructure, more vessel attacks in Hormuz and depleted stocks.↗

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Thomas Hayes Expects oil to stay elevated for an extended period, feeding into input costs and inflation expectations.↗

Peter Berezin Sees no huge scope for relief in oil prices this year or next year, though things may improve after that.↗

Michael Every Expects energy prices, at least for physical oil, to stay higher for longer as the regional escalation continues.↗

Robin Brooks Expects Iran's attempt to spike oil prices to fail, so oil prices will not rise.↗

Fiona Cincotta Expects oil to remain constructive and reclaim $95, with $100 back in focus if 50 EMA support holds.↗

Bob Elliott Expects the oil market to get tighter, with no relief coming at the pump.↗

Dan Nathan Expects a premium in oil to persist until the Iran-related conflict resolves.↗

Rory Johnston Sees both bullish and bearish forces for oil: attacks are slowing the recovery in Hormuz flows, but attacks are at the war's heaviest pace with over 10 MMbpd still clearing the Strait.↗

Richard D. Wolff Expects the price of oil to keep rising, with the biggest inflation impact still to come as the war continues.↗

Peter Boockvar Expects crude oil prices to stay elevated for a while as the conflict drags on and barrels remain offline.↗

ChinaMichael Howell, Robin Brooks +10

Michael Howell Expects China's debt burden to keep growth very slow, as Japan's did over past decades.↗

Robin Brooks Expects China's economy to remain deeply broken, with exports the only growth it has.↗

Thomas Hayes Expects China's recovery, including a bottoming and turning up of property prices, to continue with government stimulus.↗

Ananth Krishnan Expects the India-China relationship to stay stable and predictable, with both sides putting a floor under it.↗

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jeroen blokland Expects China's economy and prospects to worsen, as it is no growth miracle and is aging rapidly.↗

Michael Pettis Expects the draft gig-economy labor rules to be positive for China's rebalancing and to provide much-needed labor support.↗

Natalie Scott-Gray Expects China's economy to keep struggling, with policy support only stabilising growth rather than driving a broad recovery.↗

Ripley Atkinson Expects demand from China (and South Korea) to improve as the year progresses, supporting export markets.↗

Brent Johnson Expects the great power competition between the US and China to persist for a long time, with recurring antagonism.↗

Joe Aldina Expects Chinese coal supply to take longer than usual to return to normal after the mine disaster.↗

Marcelo Bonifacio Expects China to import less sugar, maybe a lot less than last year, after a record domestic crop and stock building.↗

Luke Gromen Expects China to hold the upper hand versus the West this time, since the U.S. military depends on Chinese critical parts.↗

bondsAlasdair Macleod, Michael Howell +10

Alasdair Macleod Expects bond yields to rise significantly over the next two to three months.↗

Michael Howell Expects a bond rally over the cycle as positioning is so negative and growth attenuates.↗

ʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹq Expects bonds to rally if the selling in AI favorites becomes large enough.↗

Thomas Hayes Expects bonds to get a bid as pensions lock in yields and reallocate away from equities.↗

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Peter Berezin Would get bullish on 10-year Treasuries at a 5.5% yield, locking in a ~3% real yield, and may go long in coming weeks.↗

Cameron Dawson Expects yields to remain in a distinct long-term uptrend, with a higher cost of capital persisting and a 6% 10-year yield not far off.↗

Caleb Silver Expects the bond market's multi-year bear market to continue, not change anytime soon.↗

Tavi Costa Expects a rotation into bonds over the next two years as earnings growth normalizes.↗

Lyn Alden Expects bond prices to keep falling (a structural bond bear), though she may turn neutral as the bearish talk gets crowded.↗

Lance Roberts Expects bonds to perform well and yields to fall in the next real bear market, making bonds more valuable.↗

Mike McGlone Expects bond yields to drop as fast or faster than they rallied once the stock market breaks, and stay down a long time.↗

Luke Gromen Expects bonds to keep falling in price (yields rising) and prefers expressing the short via gold, silver and Bitcoin rather than shorting bonds.↗

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S&P 500Cameron Dawson, Alasdair Macleod +9

Cameron Dawson Expects the market to roll over and break down before earnings estimates do.↗

Alasdair Macleod Expects the equity market bubble to implode, with the S&P 500 unable to hold its record levels.↗

Ben Inker Expects the market to do about 4% worse per percent of market cap coming in via IPO, implying roughly 24% worse than normal with 6% supply.↗

Thomas Hayes Expects the indices to be more subdued than people expect, rising only modestly while the 493 outperforms.↗

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Robin Brooks Expects the S&P 500 to be the big winner as oil falls and France muddles along.↗

Caleb Silver Expects higher share prices as long as the earnings parade continues.↗

The Kobeissi Letter Expects the S&P 500 to post another year of strong gains, based on the historical average Year 5 bull market return of +20.8%.↗

Charles Lemonides Expects the bull market to continue, with a blow-off top still ahead and the market potentially running another two to five years.↗

Lance Roberts Expects the cap-weighted S&P 500 to be flat to modestly higher into year-end, with the strongest gains in the equal-weighted index.↗

James Stanley Expects S&P 500 bullish continuation, with pullbacks seen as opportunistic buying.↗

Mike McGlone Expects the S&P 500 to break and drop 10-20%, calling it a matter of when, not if.↗

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve SystemDan Nathan, John Feneck +8

Dan Nathan Expects the Fed to hold at the October 28 meeting, with Fed funds futures now pricing roughly 75% odds of no hike.↗

John Feneck Says the Fed will not raise two or three times next year, dismissing hawkish Fed talk.↗

Natalie Scott-Gray Expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates by a further 25 basis points by December.↗

Robin Brooks Expects the Fed to hold for now, with no hikes as aggressive as priced and cuts not arriving until 2027.↗

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Joseph Wang Expects no October move but a December hike and likely one more after that, with two more hikes on a quarterly cadence as the base case.↗

Gary Wagner Expects at least one Fed rate hike by December, possibly two, with a small chance as soon as October.↗

James Stanley Says the Fed is in an uber-hawkish mode and may have to continue hiking if inflation hasn't come down.↗

Fawad Razaqzada Says the Fed remains quite hawkish with most policymakers seeing another rate increase as appropriate by year-end, though he thinks market pricing of further tightening is too aggressive.↗

Adrian Day Expects the Fed to hike another quarter point this year, though its room to raise rates is very limited.↗

Luke Gromen Expects the Fed to need significantly negative real rates to deflate the debt.↗

treasuriesMichael Howell, Thomas Hayes +7

Michael Howell Expects demand for Treasuries to pick up again as the economy cools and investors rotate back to US safe assets.↗

Thomas Hayes Expects a rotation into Treasuries, with massive private-market defaults prompting a flight to safety.↗

Cameron Dawson Expects the 40-year downtrend in yields (1982-2022) to be over, i.e. yields to rise from here.↗

Tavi Costa Expects Treasury yields to be suppressed by larger buybacks and yield curve control.↗

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Joseph Wang Expects the strong 10-year auction to put a soft ceiling on yields for now, with demand at these levels.↗

James Stanley Expects Treasury yields to continue to rip higher on heavy supply coming online in coming months.↗

Mike McGlone Sticks with overweighting Treasuries, expecting yields to fall once the stock market drops.↗

Adrian Day Expects yields on 10-year and especially 20- and 30-year Treasuries to rise if issuance of longer maturities increases.↗

Luke Gromen Expects foreign selling of the $9.5 trillion of treasuries to push yields higher in a self-reinforcing cycle.↗

dieselSteve H. Hanke, Alasdair Macleod +6

Steve H. Hanke Expects diesel prices to stay high for quite some time, agreeing with the IEA that the squeeze lasts into late 2027.↗

Alasdair Macleod Expects diesel shortages and sharply higher prices as winter energy demand hits.↗

Bruno Santos Expects the diesel market to stay tight and its supply to keep falling as attacks continue in Russia and the Gulf, heading into peak winter demand.↗

Fiona Cincotta Expects additional Russian diesel supplies to ease tightness in the refined products market and pressure on fuel prices, particularly in the US.↗

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Richard D. Wolff Notes diesel has more than doubled over the past year and expects oil-driven diesel prices to keep climbing.↗

Joseph Wang Says diesel is already at $200 a barrel, very high, and is the real bottleneck; refining constraints won't be fixed easily.↗

Adam Tooze Expects the diesel crisis to intensify, with 2026 a moment of truth as supplies and stocks are exhausted.↗

Mike McGlone Expects diesel to have peaked, with December heating oil futures around $350 versus the front contract near $490.↗

Francejeroen blokland, Alasdair Macleod +5

jeroen blokland Expects France's prospects to worsen, calling it the euro zone's weakest link.↗

Alasdair Macleod Expects France, in a debt trap with 115% debt-to-GDP, to be the poster boy for an unwinding sovereign debt crisis.↗

Michael Howell Expects France to keep spending and take on more debt, with no serious austerity possible amid unrest.↗

Robin Wigglesworth Expects France's slow growth, heavy debt and big budget deficit to keep investors worried about French prospects.↗

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The Kobeissi Letter Expects France's budget gap to widen to -5.2% of GDP.↗

Robin Brooks Expects France to muddle along.↗

Peter Boockvar Expects French yields to keep rising as investors push back on the country's excessive debt and deficits, with growth under 1%.↗

data centersBen Inker, Charles Lemonides +5

Ben Inker Expects the world will over-invest in data centers, producing giant write-offs.↗

Charles Lemonides Expects the data center growth to keep going and not slow down anytime soon.↗

Grant Cardone Expects labor and institutional money to flood into data center construction.↗

Nate Hagens Expects data center load and appetite for energy and materials to keep growing.↗

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Ed Zitron Expects the promised data center capacity, including Firmus's, not to be built.↗

Luke Gromen Expects electricity costs to keep rising as data centers are built around him.↗

Stacy Rasgon Expects data center capacity build-outs to continue and be used, with local backlash not stopping progress.↗

dollarAlasdair Macleod, Tavi Costa +5

Alasdair Macleod Expects the dollar to be massively devalued as the Treasury inflates away the debt.↗

Tavi Costa Expects the dollar to weaken over the next decade alongside yield suppression.↗

Robin Brooks Expects the dollar to fall once the war ends and oil prices decline, as the rate-differential support unwinds.↗

Natalie Scott-Gray Expects the dollar to be underpinned by further Fed rate hikes.↗

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Brent Johnson Expects the dollar index to return to much higher levels over the longer term, though a short-term pullback is possible.↗

Luke Gromen Expects any dollar move above ~101 on the Dixie to trigger a chaotic unwind of the U.S. net international investment position.↗

jim iuorio Expects foreign central banks' attempts to move away from the dollar to fail, calling the effort silly.↗

BitcoinMichael Howell, Eric Balchunas +4

Michael Howell Expects Bitcoin to be a core monetary inflation hedge to buy on dips, though it won't move in a straight line.↗

Eric Balchunas Expects Bitcoin to grow from here, helped by decreasing volatility and correlation and by owning the affordability narrative.↗

Peter Schiff Expects Bitcoin to get clobbered and says it will not 10x or 2x over the next few years.↗

Danielle Park Expects bitcoin to remain weak and sees it as a barometer of fading risk appetite.↗

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Mike McGlone Expects Bitcoin to lose a zero and fall roughly 50% if the S&P 500 drops 10-20%; remains bearish.↗

Luke Gromen Expects Bitcoin to rise four to five times over the ensuing two years as negative real rates are needed to deflate the debt.↗

U.S.Peter Berezin, Matt Warder +4

Peter Berezin Expects a weaker US economy when the AI boom ends, with a larger shock and a more muted policy response.↗

Matt Warder Sees the US coal revenue outlook as steady state and pretty promising from here.↗

Joe Aldina Expects U.S. met coal exports to China to recover to around the 10 million ton level, which is bullish for U.S. producers.↗

Raphael Bulascoschi Expects the U.S. corn crop to be smaller in 26/27, with U.S. corn stocks set to tighten.↗

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Mike McGlone Expects an almost guaranteed recession in the U.S. driven by the stock market going down.↗

Luke Gromen Expects the U.S. cannot muddle through like Japan and faces a debt spiral, with a dollar-up, rates-up, economy-down vicious cycle.↗

copperIndy Johar, Anthony Moreau +4

Indy Johar Expects copper demand to collapse because a labor and cognition collapse destroys the labor distribution and demand in the economy.↗

Anthony Moreau Expects copper prices to go higher, citing $10 a pound as the upside case.↗

Chris Marcus Sees copper as having a very similar profile to silver, implying higher prices ahead.↗

Will Thompson Expects the copper market to keep underappreciating the structural deficit, with grade decline, long permitting timelines and political risk concentration not fully priced in.↗

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Mike McGlone Expects copper to fall sharply, saying if the S&P 500 drops 10% copper is almost guaranteed to drop 20%, and calls copper an accident waiting to happen.↗

Jason Jessup Expects footwall copper at current prices to be extremely profitable and is focusing the company on copper.↗

Federal Reserve SystemMichael Howell, Ben Inker +3

Michael Howell Expects the Fed to go at half speed, with tightening scope significantly reduced rather than any aggressive moves.↗

Ben Inker Expects the Fed has plenty of room to lower rates if the economy stalls into recession.↗

Robin Brooks Expects an October Fed hike is back on the table.↗

Cameron Dawson Expects the Fed to hike further, having already hiked, shifting from dovish expectations to hawkish.↗

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Dan Nathan Expects the Fed to deliver another 25 basis point cut, as the Fed funds futures market implies.↗

IndiaCaleb Silver, Joe Aldina +3

Caleb Silver Says India's stock market weakness is temporary and the country will come back.↗

Joe Aldina Expects India to be forced to import more coal short term, keeping the market tight and bullish.↗

Nate Hagens Expects AI to take the call-center and outsourcing work that has been India's upward path, with the impact already visible.↗

Adam Tooze Expects India to be in a rather strong position thanks to its large, sophisticated petrochemical sector and recently built refineries.↗

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Marcelo Bonifacio Expects India to produce only about what it consumes, leaving low stocks and requiring more sugar imports after its crop ends around May or June.↗

UkraineAlexander De Croo, Anas Alhajji +3

Alexander De Croo Expects Ukraine to rebuild its energy grid as a decentralized grid of the future with more redundancy.↗

Anas Alhajji Expects Ukrainians to keep dying as the West fights Russia to the last Ukrainian.↗

Bertrand Oesterle Expects Ukraine's winter wheat area could be 17% lower than last year, with less export revenue to finance the next crop.↗

Nate Hagens Expects warfare in Ukraine to become increasingly automated, with AI-controlled drones and machine-run targeting replacing human decisions.↗

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Adam Tooze Expects Ukraine's long-range drone strikes on Russian refineries to give it leverage in the war.↗

CanadaAnthony Moreau, John Feneck +2

Anthony Moreau Expects Canada's economy to do really well over the next five years as it builds mines and pipelines and reduces reliance on the U.S.↗

John Feneck Says Canada is starting to pursue its own critical minerals strategy, a positive development.↗

Danielle Park Expects Canadian home prices to fall further, having already declined for four and a half years.↗

Jurrien Timmer Expects Canada to remain a standout winner on earnings and payout growth.↗

EuropeGary Bohm, jeroen blokland +2

Gary Bohm Expects Europe's bond market and social unrest problems to spread around Europe rather than contract.↗

jeroen blokland Expects Europe to keep losing its economic edge, with its prospects worsening.↗

Michael Every Expects Europe to keep absorbing China's diverted export surplus because it did not follow the US lead.↗

Raphael Bulascoschi Expects one of the continent's largest crop losses in Europe due to heat and drought, sharply increasing EU import needs.↗

European Central BankAlasdair Macleod, Michael Howell +2

Alasdair Macleod Expects the ECB to bow to political pressure and fund France rather than enforce fiscal guidelines.↗

Michael Howell Expects the ECB to do whatever it takes, i.e. print money, in every bond or fiscal crisis.↗

jeroen blokland Expects the ECB will have no choice but to step in again with support.↗

Robin Brooks Blames the ECB's policies for disincentivizing debt reduction, i.e. is against that course of action.↗

GDPAlasdair Macleod, ʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹq +2

Alasdair Macleod Expects real GDP growth to be negative once a proper price deflator is used, dismissing IMF estimates as meaningless.↗

ʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹq Expects GDP to weaken if AI capex sentiment and financial conditions wobble, as AI capex is nearly the whole story for GDP.↗

Wolf Richter Expects national GDP to turn negative when the AI boom ends and drags down the averages.↗

Nate Hagens Expects the AI build-out to end in deflation and a great simplification that undermines the growth premise of the entire country.↗

euroMichael Howell, Fawad Razaqzada +2

Michael Howell Expects the euro to weaken as the ECB prints money in every bond or fiscal crisis.↗

Fawad Razaqzada Expects the euro to stay under pressure given a challenging fundamental backdrop and French fiscal concerns.↗

jeroen blokland Expects the euro to weaken, seeing it as the weak link among major fiat currencies.↗

Brent Johnson Sees a possible short-term bounce in the euro given washed-out positioning, sentiment and momentum.↗

interest ratesPeter Berezin, Charles Lemonides +2

Peter Berezin Expects interest rates to be higher because AI investment demand has risen while savings have fallen.↗

Charles Lemonides Expects growth to stay strong and not slow over the next six months, so rates stay high rather than coming down soon.↗

Peter Schiff Expects nominal interest rates to keep rising, headed a lot higher from here.↗

Peter Boockvar Expects risk-free rates to keep rising, already pushing refinancing costs for companies and households sharply higher.↗

European UnionMichael Pettis, Nate Donnay +1

Michael Pettis Expects the hybrid deal to have little effect on overall EU manufacturing, leaving the EU facing deindustrialization unless it intervenes in its external accounts.↗

Nate Donnay Expects EU-27 and UK milk production growth to dip below year-ago levels in Q4 and Q1.↗

Marcelo Bonifacio Expects EU sugar production to fall by more than 3 million metric tons next crop, turning the bloc into a net importer needing over 1 million tons of net imports.↗

NVIDIA CorporationAnthony Moreau, James Stanley +1

Anthony Moreau Expects NVIDIA to keep delivering steady gains, though not to become a $25 trillion company.↗

James Stanley Expects Nvidia to weaken, citing the weekly bearish engulfing and heavy profit-taking as the best evidence for a bubble bursting.↗

Stacy Rasgon Expects NVIDIA to grow revenue about 70% next year, with demand for 100%, and sees the stock as cheap if this is not a peak.↗

OpenAI, L.P.Guy Adami, James Stanley +1

Guy Adami Sees OpenAI's aggressive revenue accounting as a serious red flag for a money-losing company at the center of the AI trade.↗

James Stanley Sees OpenAI's years of tapping debt markets as a massive debt load and growing strain while unprofitable.↗

Nate Hagens Sees ChatGPT access harming students' independent performance and leaking machine-preferred words into human speech.↗

energyIndy Johar, Tavi Costa +1

Indy Johar Expects a super cycle of energy demand driving unprecedented investment in energy innovation.↗

Tavi Costa Expects energy companies, especially US service companies, to do well as activity increases.↗

Charles Lemonides Expects offshore drilling and offshore production to keep growing for another five to ten years.↗

CPIRobin Brooks, Anna Wong

Robin Brooks Expects the CPI reading to be bad, with inflation pressure building.↗

Anna Wong Expects video streaming services to push the CPI report higher tomorrow, with Disney+ price increases possibly affecting the October index too.↗

GermanyAlasdair Macleod, The Kobeissi Letter

Alasdair Macleod Expects German debt yields to rise across the entire euro system.↗

The Kobeissi Letter Expects Germany's deficit to widen from -2.7% of GDP in 2025 to -4.1% in 2027, its largest since 2010.↗

IranRobin Brooks, Richard D. Wolff

Robin Brooks Expects Iran's economy to contract far more than the IMF's -7.6% 2026 forecast implies.↗

Richard D. Wolff it can obtain any weapons from Russia and China and is in an extraordinarily powerful position.↗

JapanAlasdair Macleod, The Kobeissi Letter

Alasdair Macleod Expects Japan's repatriation of capital to accelerate and pressure Japanese institutions, affecting everyone.↗

The Kobeissi Letter Expects Japan's fiscal deficit to more than triple, from -0.7% to -2.5% of GDP, its largest since 2022.↗

Middle EastAlasdair Macleod, Joseph Wang

Alasdair Macleod Expects nothing to come out of the Middle East for a considerable time as shipping is effectively shut.↗

Joseph Wang Expects no more Middle Eastern hot war and a diplomatic deal worked out before the midterms, which would be good for the global economy and yields.↗

RussiaAnas Alhajji, Adam Tooze

Anas Alhajji Expects Russia to keep collecting revenues despite the Graham sanctions, which he says have had no real impact.↗

Adam Tooze Expects Russia to be hurt by Ukrainian strikes on its diesel refining capacity, which are hitting a nerve.↗

UKThe Kobeissi Letter, Nate Donnay

The Kobeissi Letter Expects the UK to be the only major economy to improve its fiscal position, with the deficit narrowing from -4.3% in 2025 to -3.1% of GDP next year.↗

Nate Donnay Expects UK (with EU-27) milk production to fall below year-ago levels in Q4 and Q1.↗

equitiesAlasdair Macleod, Thomas Hayes

Alasdair Macleod Expects the equity bubble to break as rising bond yields make it impossible to maintain, with banks calling in leveraged loans.↗

Thomas Hayes Expects a monstrous bull market under the surface over the next six months, with the un-magnificent 493 making doubles and triples.↗

miningTavi Costa, Nate Hagens

Tavi Costa Expects miners to be exceptionally cheap and to perform over the next five to 10 years, with silver companies as stellar businesses.↗

Nate Hagens Expects AI-driven efficiency gains in mining to increase overall consumption rather than reduce it.↗

10-year TreasuryGuy Adami

Guy Adami Sees 10-year yields sticking around 5.25-5.30% despite efforts to calm markets.↗

AustraliaPhilip Smith

Philip Smith Expects Australia to be among the winners as the US turns into a net beef importer.↗

Bank of EnglandFiona Cincotta

Fiona Cincotta Notes markets price ~70% odds of a 25bp BoE hike in November, but thinks 100bp of hikes over the coming year is excessive.↗

Federal Open Market CommitteePeter Boockvar

Peter Boockvar Expects the Fed to hike rates twice this year, with the market leading the Fed rather than the reverse.↗

HM TreasuryLuke Gromen

Luke Gromen Supports the idea of Treasury issuing gold convertible bonds, calling Shelton's approach a viable solution.↗

MexicoFred Bell

Fred Bell Expects Mexican permitting to keep improving, with five of roughly nine waiting companies now licensed and a couple more, including Panuco, still to come.↗

Microsoft CorporationBen Inker

Ben Inker Does not expect Microsoft to default on its debt even if data center returns disappoint.↗

Space Exploration Technologies Corp.The Kobeissi Letter

The Kobeissi Letter Expects SpaceX to disrupt the telecom and internet industry and upend the incumbent giants.↗

U.S. Department of the TreasuryJames Stanley

James Stanley Expects the government to bring on a bond buying program once inflation is handled and a recession hits.↗

VenezuelaSteve H. Hanke

Steve H. Hanke Expects Venezuela to remain unstable with severe economic problems unless it dollarizes.↗

central banksDaniel Lacalle

Daniel Lacalle Opposes central banks' rate hikes, arguing they are not truly restrictive and penalize the productive economy.↗

cryptoJordi Visser

Jordi Visser Expects AI agents to drive the next crypto cycle through demand for compute, stablecoins, tokenization and Bitcoin.↗

debtjeroen blokland

jeroen blokland Expects China's debt accumulation to keep rising as it buys growth with ever more borrowing.↗

private equityCameron Dawson

Cameron Dawson Sees attractive opportunities in private equity, especially smaller funds selling into mega-fund upmarket bids, despite the asset class's underperformance.↗

stocksCaleb Silver

Caleb Silver Expects stocks to deliver good gains after the midterms, in the strongest six months of the year, and says the bull market may have more in the tank.↗

More from the desk

Inflation and the Fed pathWalter Bloomberg said persistent inflation could force additional hikes in December and potentially into 2027, while other measures suggested some underlying inflation breadth had eased or remained mixed.

Walter Bloomberg said persistent inflation could force additional hikes in December and potentially into 2027 3, while other measures suggested some underlying inflation breadth had eased or remained mixed 1215.

Bonds versus equitiesThomas Hayes argued that a guaranteed Treasury yield was becoming a credible alternative to an unguaranteed equity earnings yield, encouraging pensions and other institutional investors to rotate toward bonds. Wolf Richter likewise said Treasuries had become moderately attractive after a long period of unattractive yields, though he preferred TIPS and remained away from corporate and AI-linked bonds.

Thomas Hayes argued that a guaranteed Treasury yield was becoming a credible alternative to an unguaranteed equity earnings yield, encouraging pensions and other institutional investors to rotate toward bonds 25. Wolf Richter likewise said Treasuries had become moderately attractive after a long period of unattractive yields, though he preferred TIPS and remained away from corporate and AI-linked bonds 11.

Growth and financial-conditions riskCameron Dawson said higher yields, weaker equities, volatility and wider credit spreads were tightening financial conditions, while widening lower-quality credit spreads could signal brewing growth fears. Jurrien Timmer said slight tightening was beginning to temper earnings-driven price momentum, comparing the setup with 2022 and 2018.

Cameron Dawson said higher yields, weaker equities, volatility and wider credit spreads were tightening financial conditions, while widening lower-quality credit spreads could signal brewing growth fears 1. Jurrien Timmer said slight tightening was beginning to temper earnings-driven price momentum, comparing the setup with 2022 and 2018 27.

Rates, gold and monetary credibilityBloomberg reported that gold held a two-day decline after a Fed official signalled that one more hike might be needed this year but further tightening would not be necessary in 2027, which improved sentiment toward gold. Michael Howell instead argued that high rates, government deficits and debt refinancing pressures could ultimately support a bond rally, while describing monetary and fiscal risks across the US, Europe and Japan.

Bloomberg reported that gold held a two-day decline after a Fed official signalled that one more hike might be needed this year but further tightening would not be necessary in 2027, which improved sentiment toward gold 23. Michael Howell instead argued that high rates, government deficits and debt refinancing pressures could ultimately support a bond rally, while describing monetary and fiscal risks across the US, Europe and Japan 10.

Earlier editions

Oct 14 Hotter inflation reopened the debate over further Fed hikes, even as rising Treasury yields made bonds increas › Oct 14 The central rates debate was whether higher yields reflect durable growth and AI investment or an inflationary › Oct 13 The core debate was whether high yields reflect a still-strong growth and AI-investment regime or mounting inf › Oct 13 Rates debate split between growth-driven higher yields and inflation-driven pressure for further tightening, w › Oct 12 The dominant claim was that higher-for-longer policy had returned, but disagreement remained over whether risi › Oct 12 Rising yields were treated both as an alternative tightening mechanism and as a warning that debt and fiscal p › Oct 11 Higher yields and inflation expectations dominated, with disagreement over whether rates still have materially › Oct 11 Higher yields and fiscal deterioration dominated, but the sources disagreed over whether Treasury-market press ›