Adam Tooze discussed US housing-market gridlock, attributing it to the lock-in effects of past low mortgage rates and supply-side constraints rather than a late-2008-style overheating bubble 2. He also assessed the broader US macro backdrop, highlighting robust growth, heavy government debt issuance, AI-related demand, and a shift in markets from expecting Fed cuts to pricing rate increases 2. His other in-scope posts were brief social-media remarks about French readability and eSIMs versus VPNs 13.
From the window to Oct 8, 05:30 ET — this window's take is still to be written.
On the record
last 90 days · 16 positionsLatest positions
- ATAdam ToozeImproving on South Korea Expects South Korea to be in a rather strong position thanks to its large, modern refining capacity. ▶ 36:22 Diesel · 9 Oct
- ATAdam ToozeImproving on India Expects India to be in a rather strong position thanks to its large, sophisticated petrochemical sector and recently built refineries. ▶ 36:22 Diesel · 9 Oct
- ATAdam ToozeStrongly bullish on diesel Expects the diesel crisis to intensify, with 2026 a moment of truth as supplies and stocks are exhausted. “I think it's those two factors, Richard, really are making 2026 into a kind of moment of truth.” ▶ 31:10 Diesel · 9 Oct
- ATAdam ToozeWorsening on Russia Expects Russia to be hurt by Ukrainian strikes on its diesel refining capacity, which are hitting a nerve. “by striking Russian diesel refinery capacity, they are really hitting a nerve” ▶ 31:10 Diesel · 9 Oct
- ATAdam ToozeBullish on agriculture Expects diesel and fertilizer costs to feed through into higher food prices, adding percentage points to household diet costs. “this will feed through to prices in measurable ways, percentage points on the price of all of the ingredients of a household's diet” ▶ 34:22 Diesel · 9 Oct
- ATAdam ToozeImproving on Ukraine Expects Ukraine's long-range drone strikes on Russian refineries to give it leverage in the war. “that's, of course, what Ukraine wants above all. It needs leverage.” ▶ 31:10 Diesel · 9 Oct
- ATAdam ToozeBullish on crude oil Expects the Israeli-American attack on Iran to be a disaster for global fuel economy and oil prices, with crude prices not telling the full story. ▶ 31:10 Diesel · 9 Oct
- ATAdam ToozeSharply rising on interest rate Expects interest rates to keep rising, with markets now pricing Fed rate increases for the rest of this year. “markets are pricing into increases in interest rates from the Fed side for the rest of this year” ▶ 11:20 Gridlock in the U.S. Housing Market · 2 Oct
- ATAdam ToozeStrongly hawkish on Federal Reserve System Expects the Fed to raise rates for the rest of this year, a shift from prior bets on cuts. “markets are pricing into increases in interest rates from the Fed side for the rest of this year” ▶ 11:20 Gridlock in the U.S. Housing Market · 2 Oct
- ATAdam ToozeSharply improving on Brazil Expects Lula's Brazil to keep delivering strong gains for ordinary Brazilians — record-low unemployment, falling poverty and food insecurity. ▶ 25:25 Gridlock in the U.S. Housing Market · 2 Oct
- ATAdam ToozeSharply falling on unemployment rate Expects Brazil's unemployment rate to remain at historic lows, with youth unemployment around 10%. ▶ 25:25 Gridlock in the U.S. Housing Market · 2 Oct
- ATAdam ToozeImproving on US Expects the relative robustness of the US economy to sustain growth and support other economies. “the more likely force driving this right now is some sort of story about the relative robustness of the US economy” ▶ 11:20 Gridlock in the U.S. Housing Market · 2 Oct
Their output
1 this weekStories it travels in
i
The stories
- ○ a voice, on the left
- ◌ a voice raising half of these
- ● a subject, on the right, under its story
- ⌒ a line is a voice raising a subject — thicker, more items; colour is the story
The stories this entity travels in: on the right, each story with the subjects seen alongside it; on the left, the voices that raised them, and a line for every subject a voice raised, bundled by story. Tap a voice to light everything it raises, a subject for who raised it, a story for its own lines. The crumb goes back.
Who brings it up
- Cameron Abadi 1 mention
- Ben Carlson 1 mention
What they talk about
- 400 days 1 item
- Karl Benz 1 item
- Gulf 1 item
- Cameron Abadi 1 item
- Standard Oil 1 item
- petrochemical sector 1 item
- export controls 1 item
- fuel oil 1 item
See what your own voices say about Adam Tooze, every morning.
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