Ben Carlson focused on AI as both a major investment risk and a source of productivity-driven overwork. He also raised tensions between weak consumer sentiment and strong equities, housing scarcity, inflationary spending and wealth inequality, while highlighting why higher Treasury yields have not stopped the stock-market rally.12346 His linked Animal Spirits topics included sudden wealth, hyperscaler power, elevated valuations and a high-beta market environment.5
From the window to Oct 11, 05:30 ET — this window's take is still to be written.
On the record
last 90 days · 10 positionsLatest positions
- BCBen CarlsonVery high risk on AI Sees AI as the biggest known risk, with capex cycle, debt binge, concentration and speculation, and says nobody can know how it plays out. “AI is the biggest risk everyone already knows about” Open the post AI is the biggest risk everyone already knows ab… · 9 Oct
- BCBen CarlsonStrongly hawkish on Federal Reserve System Carlson expects the Fed to keep hiking rates. “So the Fed is probably gonna keep hiking rates” Open the post So the Fed is probably gonna keep hiking rates … · 23 Sept
- BCBen CarlsonBullish on hyperscaler Carlson expects AI hyperscaler spending to keep growing despite rate hikes. “And probably won't slow down AI hyperscaler spending” Open the post So the Fed is probably gonna keep hiking rates … · 23 Sept
- BCBen CarlsonRising on inflation Carlson doubts inflation will come down even as the Fed hikes. “but inflation won't really go lower?” Open the post So the Fed is probably gonna keep hiking rates … · 23 Sept
- BCBen CarlsonStrongly bullish on bond index fund A bond index fund tracking the Agg is attractive right now because its 5.2% average yield to maturity is unusually high versus the past 15 years. “if you own a bond index fund that tracks the Agg you're getting 5.2% avg yield to maturity right now” Open the post I know everyone hates bonds right now b/c inflat… · 11 Sept
- BCBen CarlsonStrongly bullish on the Agg The Agg offers a 5.2% yield to maturity, a level investors would have welcomed at any point in the past 15 years. “Investors would have killed for yields this high at any point in the past 15 years or so” Open the post I know everyone hates bonds right now b/c inflat… · 11 Sept
- BCBen CarlsonRisk rising sharply on AI Carlson frames AI as carrying a 10% chance of an extinction-level event, a large tail risk. “there is a 10% chance AI might cause an extinction level event for humanity” Open the post AI has the chance to improve EPS growth for the … · 9 Sept
- BCBen CarlsonRisk easing sharply on US Carlson is not worried about a US government debt crisis, saying the economy's size and the dollar's reserve status mean no crisis will occur. “My most contrarian take right now is I’m not worried about a US government debt crisis” Open the post My most contrarian take right now is I’m not wor… · 19 Aug
- BCBen CarlsonBullish on reserve currency Carlson sees the dollar's reserve currency status as durable and a key reason the US can keep spending without a crisis. “We have the reserve currency” Open the post My most contrarian take right now is I’m not wor… · 19 Aug
- BCBen CarlsonBullish on tech sector The tech sector's forward PE has fallen from 29x to 22x even as the sector rose ~65% since the start of 2025, implying valuations have gotten cheaper. “Since the start of 2025 the tech sector is up ~65% In that time the forward PE ratio has fallen from 29x to 22x” Open the post Crazy but true: Since the start of 2025 the tec… · 17 Aug
Their output
12 this weekStories it travels in
i
The stories
- ○ a voice, on the left
- ◌ a voice raising half of these
- ● a subject, on the right, under its story
- ⌒ a line is a voice raising a subject — thicker, more items; colour is the story
The stories this entity travels in: on the right, each story with the subjects seen alongside it; on the left, the voices that raised them, and a line for every subject a voice raised, bundled by story. Tap a voice to light everything it raises, a subject for who raised it, a story for its own lines. The crumb goes back.
Who brings it up
- Cameron Abadi 1 mention
- Adam Tooze 1 mention
What they talk about
- AI 3 items
- S&P 500 2 items
- US 2 items
- 400 days 1 item
- Karl Benz 1 item
- Gulf 1 item
- Higher Rates 1 item
- bull market 1 item
See what your own voices say about Ben Carlson, every morning.
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