Anton Likhodedov

Latest positions

• ALAnton LikhodedovHigh risk on AI Sees leading AI labs' competitive moat as eroding, as cheaper open models handle 99% of tasks. “99% of tasks do not require frontier model capabilities (where will the moat come from then?)” Open the post Very interesting points by @TheStalwart. Also, … · 9 Oct
• ALAnton LikhodedovFor on AI Supports starting a dialogue and building a framework for AI cooperation with China. “starting a dialog and creating a framework for cooperation (even if initially there is little substance) seems important” Open the post China and the A.I. Race Tried to understand the… · 18 Sept
• ALAnton LikhodedovImproving on China Expects eventual US-China cooperation on AI safety to be more likely than he previously thought. “after listening to them I am probably more optimistic on eventual cooperation” Open the post China and the A.I. Race Tried to understand the… · 18 Sept
• ALAnton LikhodedovImproving on US Expects the US to be able to take unilateral AI steps without endangering its lead. “the "race" is driven by the US - hence US could take some unilateral steps without endangering it's lead” Open the post China and the A.I. Race Tried to understand the… · 18 Sept
• ALAnton LikhodedovFor on OpenAI Supports the pause/slowdown in frontier model training that OpenAI's leadership has called for. “I think it is true that conceptually pause/slowdown makes a lot of sense” Open the post Boy, that escalated quickly ... Just a week ago… · 13 Sept
• ALAnton LikhodedovFor on Anthropic PBC Supports the pause/slowdown in frontier model training that Anthropic's leadership has called for. “I think it is true that conceptually pause/slowdown makes a lot of sense” Open the post Boy, that escalated quickly ... Just a week ago… · 13 Sept
• ALAnton LikhodedovBullish on commodities Sees a case for commodities moving higher. “I see a case for gold/commodities moving higher” Open the post UST, $TLT, TREASURY BUYBACK AND DEBASEMENT My o… · 19 Aug
• ALAnton LikhodedovBullish on gold Sees a case for gold moving higher. “I see a case for gold/commodities moving higher” Open the post UST, $TLT, TREASURY BUYBACK AND DEBASEMENT My o… · 19 Aug
• ALAnton LikhodedovStrongly bullish on treasury Expects long-dated Treasury prices to rise as authorities use their levers to bring long-dated yields down, and is fading large yield spikes. “Treasury and Fed have plenty of levers to bring long-dated yields down if they decide to do so” Open the post UST, $TLT, TREASURY BUYBACK AND DEBASEMENT My o… · 19 Aug
• ALAnton LikhodedovLow risk on inflation Sees runaway inflation as the only constraint on pushing yields down, but with 10-30y breakevens at 2.2-2.3% it is not a huge risk. “The only constraint is runaway inflation, but with 10-30y inflation breakevens at 2.2-2.3% it does not seem like a huge risk/concern.” Open the post UST, $TLT, TREASURY BUYBACK AND DEBASEMENT My o… · 19 Aug
• ALAnton LikhodedovStrongly cheap on memory Finds memory cheap at a P/E of 3, and the idea of shorting it to fund optics stretched. Open the post The memory chipmaker said it will buy back as ma… · 19 Aug
• ALAnton LikhodedovExpensive on optics Sees optics as a great sector but much more richly valued than memory. “great sector, but also not without risks and much richer valued” Open the post The memory chipmaker said it will buy back as ma… · 19 Aug