China
Sceptical
China is being portrayed chiefly as an export-heavy, manufacturing-driven economy whose surpluses are generating defensive responses from Europe and other countries. Michael Pettis argues that export restraints would not fix China’s underlying domestic imbalances, while Brad Setser and other commentary emphasise the scale of China’s manufacturing and export surplus 2232735. Views diverge sharply on China’s strategic and political model: some frame competition with China as a contest between Western democracy and authoritarianism, while others argue for engagement and say public attitudes are more nuanced than Washington’s 322. China also appears as a major actor in commodities, supply chains, energy security and the wider geopolitical order 591825.
From the window to Oct 8, 05:30 ET — this window's take is still to be written.
Where the voices land
All voices 12 voices6 worsening2 stable4 improving
Sharply worsening
- RBRobin BrooksSharply worsening Expects China's economy to remain deeply broken, with exports the only growth it has. “The rest of China's economy is deeply broken. This is the only growth it has...” Open the post Last night brought another monster trade surplus… · 14 Oct
- JBjeroen bloklandSharply worsening Expects China's economy and prospects to worsen, as it is no growth miracle and is aging rapidly. “In case you still believe China is an economic growth miracle, think again. It isn't.” Open the post In case you still believe China is an economic g… · 12 Oct
- MBMarcelo BonifacioSharply worsening Expects China to import less sugar, maybe a lot less than last year, after a record domestic crop and stock building. “china will import less sugar and maybe a lot less sugar than last year” ▶ 9:18 Brazil Rains Push Sugar Mills to December and Da… · 8 Oct
Worsening
- MHMichael HowellWorsening Expects China's debt burden to keep growth very slow, as Japan's did over past decades. ▶ 3:13 MICHAEL HOWELL | Always buy the dip in monetary … · 14 Oct
- NSNatalie Scott-GrayWorsening Expects China's economy to keep struggling, with policy support only stabilising growth rather than driving a broad recovery. “we suspect their main purpose is to stabilise growth, support selected areas of demand and prevent further deterioration in the property market” ▶ 0:00 Base Metals Tighten as Zinc Smelters Now Pay to … · 11 Oct
- BJBrent JohnsonWorsening Expects the great power competition between the US and China to persist for a long time, with recurring antagonism. ▶ 6:31 Why Rubio Skipped Brussels: America’s Secret Rin… · 11 Oct
Stable
- AKAnanth KrishnanStable Expects the India-China relationship to stay stable and predictable, with both sides putting a floor under it. “at least this modest objective of keeping it predictable and stable is what both sides want” ▶ 11:14 India-China Relations Are Improving. Here's What… · 13 Oct
- JAJoe AldinaStable Expects Chinese coal supply to take longer than usual to return to normal after the mine disaster. “my thought would be that things take a little longer there in china to get back to normal” ▶ 7:18 The Coal Trader - Autumn Shoulder Support, Europ… · 9 Oct
Improving
- THThomas HayesImproving Expects China's recovery, including a bottoming and turning up of property prices, to continue with government stimulus. “property prices for the first time in years have bottomed and are starting to turn up in China” ▶ 9:52 Great Rotation Happening Now: Why Chip Stocks Ar… · 13 Oct
- MPMichael PettisImproving Expects the draft gig-economy labor rules to be positive for China's rebalancing and to provide much-needed labor support. “This should be positive for rebalancing and could provide much-needed labor support.” Open the post According to Caixin: "China’s labor ministry on … · 12 Oct
- RARipley AtkinsonImproving Expects demand from China (and South Korea) to improve as the year progresses, supporting export markets. “as we move closer to the end of this year, that will, will naturally improve as well” ▶ 13:52 QLD producer confidence fires on forecast while … · 11 Oct
Sharply improving
- LGLuke GromenSharply improving Expects China to hold the upper hand versus the West this time, since the U.S. military depends on Chinese critical parts. “China now makes critical parts of the U.S. military. The U.S. military can't go to war without China.” ▶ 20:13 Does the Administration believe they can inflate… · 8 Oct
Debt, demand and growth model 7 voices4 worsening3 improving
Sharply worsening
- RBRobin BrooksSharply worsening Expects China's economy to remain deeply broken, with exports the only growth it has. “The rest of China's economy is deeply broken. This is the only growth it has...” Open the post Last night brought another monster trade surplus… · 14 Oct
- JBjeroen bloklandSharply worsening Expects China's economy and prospects to worsen, as it is no growth miracle and is aging rapidly. “In case you still believe China is an economic growth miracle, think again. It isn't.” Open the post In case you still believe China is an economic g… · 12 Oct
Worsening
- MHMichael HowellWorsening Expects China's debt burden to keep growth very slow, as Japan's did over past decades. ▶ 3:13 MICHAEL HOWELL | Always buy the dip in monetary … · 14 Oct
- NSNatalie Scott-GrayWorsening Expects China's economy to keep struggling, with policy support only stabilising growth rather than driving a broad recovery. “we suspect their main purpose is to stabilise growth, support selected areas of demand and prevent further deterioration in the property market” ▶ 0:00 Base Metals Tighten as Zinc Smelters Now Pay to … · 11 Oct
Improving
- THThomas HayesImproving Expects China's recovery, including a bottoming and turning up of property prices, to continue with government stimulus. “property prices for the first time in years have bottomed and are starting to turn up in China” ▶ 9:52 Great Rotation Happening Now: Why Chip Stocks Ar… · 13 Oct
- MPMichael PettisImproving Expects the draft gig-economy labor rules to be positive for China's rebalancing and to provide much-needed labor support. “This should be positive for rebalancing and could provide much-needed labor support.” Open the post According to Caixin: "China’s labor ministry on … · 12 Oct
- RARipley AtkinsonImproving Expects demand from China (and South Korea) to improve as the year progresses, supporting export markets. “as we move closer to the end of this year, that will, will naturally improve as well” ▶ 13:52 QLD producer confidence fires on forecast while … · 11 Oct
Geopolitics and power rivalry 3 voices1 worsening1 stable1 improving
Worsening
- BJBrent JohnsonWorsening Expects the great power competition between the US and China to persist for a long time, with recurring antagonism. ▶ 6:31 Why Rubio Skipped Brussels: America’s Secret Rin… · 11 Oct
Stable
- AKAnanth KrishnanStable Expects the India-China relationship to stay stable and predictable, with both sides putting a floor under it. “at least this modest objective of keeping it predictable and stable is what both sides want” ▶ 11:14 India-China Relations Are Improving. Here's What… · 13 Oct
Sharply improving
- LGLuke GromenSharply improving Expects China to hold the upper hand versus the West this time, since the U.S. military depends on Chinese critical parts. “China now makes critical parts of the U.S. military. The U.S. military can't go to war without China.” ▶ 20:13 Does the Administration believe they can inflate… · 8 Oct
6 worsening2 stable4 improving
Also asked
Risk 1 voice← rising · easing →1 rising
High risk
- AKAnanth KrishnanHigh risk Sees a large and persistent trust deficit between India and China, extending beyond the border dispute. “There's a huge trust deficit after what happened on the boundary.” ▶ 13:02 India-China Relations Are Improving. Here's What… · 13 Oct
Policy 1 voice← against · for →1 for
For
- BSBrad SetserFor Supports China borrowing more, used more efficiently, to support consumption. “China needs more borrowing (used more efficiently) to support consumption” Open the post I agree with Mr. Batson; China needs more borrow… · 13 Oct
Mentions
211 this weekWed 7Sun 11 · 36Thu 15
Stories it travels in
i
The stories
- ○ a voice, on the left
- ◌ a voice raising half of these
- ● a subject, on the right, under its story
- ⌒ a line is a voice raising a subject — thicker, more items; colour is the story
The stories this entity travels in: on the right, each story with the subjects seen alongside it; on the left, the voices that raised them, and a line for every subject a voice raised, bundled by story. Tap a voice to light everything it raises, a subject for who raised it, a story for its own lines. The crumb goes back.
Who brings it up
- Bloomberg 73 mentions
- Brad Setser 19 mentions
- Michael Pettis 13 mentions
- Michael Every 11 mentions
- Arnaud Bertrand 9 mentions
- Josh Linville 9 mentions
- David Lin 8 mentions
- Jeffrey Currie ++ 6 mentions
See what your own voices say about China, every morning.
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