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Bob Elliott

This week · 23 items
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Voice · person

This week · spoke in 23 items · 8 topics

Oct 8 → Oct 15, 05:30 ET · Last update Oct 12, 04:17 ET (for the window to Oct 11, 05:30)

Earlier: September 2026 · August 2026

Sceptical

Bob Elliott focused primarily on the sustainability of the AI investment and valuation narrative, arguing that model-revenue growth is slowing from parabolic to linear even as AI capex continues to rise. 61517 They also discussed market vulnerability, with US stocks reliant on AI enthusiasm despite higher yields, spreads and oil prices. 12 Other topics included oil-market conditions, bond yields, French debt, IPO signals, tax strategies and portfolio implementation. 1011141951316

From the window to Oct 11, 05:30 ET — this window's take is still to be written.

On the record

last 90 days · 15 positions
AI -2.0 · 5oil +2.0 · 1oil markets +2.0 · 1Federal Reserve System +2.0 · 1yen +1.0 · 1OpenAI, L.P. 0.0 · 1FIMA -1.0 · 1US treasuries -1.0 · 1

Latest positions

  • BEBob ElliottStrongly bearish on Anthropic PBC Expects Anthropic's growth to slow sharply from here, since the 2Q26 surge came from a one-off period of tokenmaxxing and low competition that will never recur. “most of the surge happened *within* 2Q26 driven by a period of tokenmaxxing and low competition that will never exist again. The four months since look very different.” Open the post AI manics are desperately extrapolating Anthropi… · 15 Oct
  • BEBob ElliottStrongly bullish on oil Expects the oil market to get tighter, with no relief coming at the pump. “it's all marginal in the face of an oil market that if anything looks like it's getting tighter” Open the post No Relief Coming At The Pump Despite all the rh… · 12 Oct
  • BEBob ElliottStrongly bearish on AI Expects the AI demand story to fail, since it would require all non-tech companies to bet their entire free cashflow on AI by 2030. “it would require all non-tech companies to bet their entire free cashflow on AI by 2030. Good luck.” Open the post I hear all the time that the semis & hypersc… · 11 Oct
  • BEBob ElliottStrongly bearish on AI Expects the AI boom to shift from parabolic to linear growth, a slowdown most investors are unprepared for. “The AI boom is increasingly shifting from parabolic to linear growth. Most investors are totally unprepared for that shift.” Open the post The AI boom is increasingly shifting from parabo… · 11 Oct
  • BEBob ElliottStrongly bearish on AI Expects AI spending growth to be linear rather than parabolic, undermining the market's bet on the sector. “The market is one big bet on AI based on hope for parabolic growth. That's a troubling situation when spending growth is looking increasingly linear.” Open the post The market is one big bet on AI based on hope fo… · 10 Oct
  • BEBob ElliottStrongly bearish on AI Expects industry revenue growth to slow from parabolic to linear going forward. “clearly shows a transition from parabolic to linear industry revenue growth ahead” Open the post The OpenAI & Anthropic S-Curve Problem News … · 9 Oct
  • BEBob ElliottRange-bound on OpenAI, L.P. Expects OpenAI and Anthropic combined to take until 2045 to reach $1trn in ARR at current growth rates, i.e. no acceleration from here. “At current growth rates, it'll take until 2045 for OpenAI+Anthropic *together* to reach 1tln in ARR.” Open the post At current growth rates, it'll take until 2045 f… · 8 Oct
  • BEBob ElliottStrongly bearish on Multistrats Elliott expects multistrat performance to deteriorate and revert toward the peer mean as they gather assets and hike fees. Open the post The more these Multistrats gather assets & h… · 1 Oct
  • BEBob ElliottBearish on asset management Elliott argues the tax-avoidance strategies long favored by asset managers are now facing a reckoning and cannot be worked around. “The tax avoidance strategies that have been darlings of the asset management for years are facing their comeuppance.” Open the post The tax avoidance strategies that have been darl… · 29 Sept
  • BEBob ElliottStrongly bearish on AI Elliott argues the planned AI capex requires implausibly large revenue by 2030, implying the AI capex boom is unsustainable. “penciling out the need for 3tln+ revenue by 2030 to pay for all the planned capex” Open the post Earlier this summer I wrote "The Shit Returns Co… · 27 Sept
  • BEBob ElliottStrongly hawkish on Federal Reserve System Elliott argues rates are far too low for current conditions and the Fed will need to hike more than the one-or-two being debated. “Rates remain far too low given current conditions.” Open the post Rates remain far too low given current condition… · 16 Sept
  • BEBob ElliottStrongly bullish on oil markets Elliott argues medium-term oil markets are waking up to a lasting squeeze on Mideast oil supply, implying higher prices. “Medium term oil markets are increasingly recognizing the squeeze on Mideast oil supply is far from transitory.” Open the post Medium term oil markets are increasingly recogni… · 12 Sept

Their output

23 this week
Wed 7Wed 7 · 6Thu 15

Stories it travels in

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The stories

  • ○ a voice, on the left
  • ◌ a voice raising half of these
  • ● a subject, on the right, under its story
  • ⌒ a line is a voice raising a subject — thicker, more items; colour is the story

The stories this entity travels in: on the right, each story with the subjects seen alongside it; on the left, the voices that raised them, and a line for every subject a voice raised, bundled by story. Tap a voice to light everything it raises, a subject for who raised it, a story for its own lines. The crumb goes back.

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