Sceptical
Dan Nathan focused on market risks around AI financing, valuation concentration and the durability of AI-related demand. He questioned whether AI companies’ funding ecosystem could withstand weaker demand and potential public offerings, while highlighting weakness beneath strong index performance 2. He also framed bank earnings, forward guidance and commentary as important tests for the broader market 23, and discussed rates, Fed expectations, AI agents and AI sentiment with Peter Boockvar 4.
From the window to Oct 15, 05:30 ET — this window's take is still to be written.
On the record
last 90 days · 20 positionsTheir calls
None settled yet · 1 open
Still open
- ○ Open Fed funds target range, upper bound lower · Federal Reserve System “Expects the Fed to deliver another 25 basis point cut, as the Fed funds futures market implies.” — their words, paraphrased · said Oct 13 · no deadline given, judged Apr 13, 2027 the episode ↗ Now 4.00% (Oct 15).
Read from their words, checked against market data, approved by a person. Misses show like hits.
AI -1.7 · 3Apple Inc. 0.0 · 2crude +2.0 · 1open source +2.0 · 1Alphabet Inc. +1.0 · 1oil +1.0 · 1Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 0.0 · 1credit default swaps -1.0 · 1
Latest positions
- DNDan NathanVery high risk on private credit Warns of an unaccounted pocket of risk in private markets and private credit that will have knock-on effects. “there's a pocket of risk they don't think is being accounted for” ▶ 42:36 David Rosenberg: The AI "Mania" Is More Extreme … · 16 Oct
- DNDan NathanVery high risk on Anthropic PBC Expects the unwind to start in private markets, with Anthropic's funding push into 2027 a source of risk. “I actually believe it's going to start in the private markets. I think it's anthropic, it's pushed out into 2027.” ▶ 42:36 David Rosenberg: The AI "Mania" Is More Extreme … · 16 Oct
- DNDan NathanVery high risk on OpenAI Sees OpenAI's hundreds of billions in raised capital as part of an unaccounted pocket of risk in private markets. “if you think about OpenAI and Anthropic, they've raised hundreds of billions of dollars” ▶ 42:36 David Rosenberg: The AI "Mania" Is More Extreme … · 16 Oct
- DNDan NathanVery high risk on Instinct Sees Instinct as highly vulnerable, expecting it to be acqui-hired or bought out because it cannot compete with big tech's balance sheets. “I feel bad for Instinct because they're either going to get ACWA hired or bought out.” ▶ 31:22 Deirdre Bosa: The AI Model Race Is Over. It’s a … · 14 Oct
- DNDan NathanVery high risk on AI Sees a growing risk that the pace of Chinese AI catch-up makes the tens of billions being spent on AI infrastructure unnecessary. “this is the pace in which they are catching up should be an issue” ▶ 28:05 Deirdre Bosa: The AI Model Race Is Over. It’s a … · 14 Oct
- DNDan NathanStrongly bullish on open source Expects open source models to be much cheaper and widely chosen, undermining the economics of frontier-model infrastructure spending. “open source is much cheaper to use” ▶ 28:05 Deirdre Bosa: The AI Model Race Is Over. It’s a … · 14 Oct
- DNDan NathanStrongly bearish on tech Expects the stock market to eventually discount the ROIC on the AI data center buildout, hitting the big tech names funding it. ▶ 29:49 Deirdre Bosa: The AI Model Race Is Over. It’s a … · 14 Oct
- DNDan NathanHigh risk on credit default swaps Reads rising CDS on AI-buildout names as a sign of growing trepidation about the weaker players in that space. ▶ 23:19 Shaking The Leaves Off The Money Tree | Invest… · 13 Oct
- DNDan NathanDovish on Federal Reserve System Expects the Fed to deliver another 25 basis point cut, as the Fed funds futures market implies. “the fed funds futures the cme fed watch tool is telling you yes we are going to have another 25 basis point cut” ▶ 27:54 Shaking The Leaves Off The Money Tree | Invest… · 13 Oct
- DNDan NathanHigh risk on credit markets Flags that the MOVE index for credit markets has been moving higher alongside rates, an interesting sign of rising credit-market volatility. “the move index, which is basically the VIX for, you know, the credit markets. Well, that thing has been moving and it's been moving higher.” ▶ 23:19 Shaking The Leaves Off The Money Tree | Invest… · 13 Oct
- DNDan NathanHigh risk on AI Sees growing concern under the surface about the weaker names in the AI buildout. “there is some trepidation about some of the weaker names in the AI build out space” ▶ 25:37 Shaking The Leaves Off The Money Tree | Invest… · 13 Oct
- DNDan NathanVery high risk on neoclouds Calls the neocloud/GPU-financing complex a canary in the coal mine and expects the OpenAI news to be a precursor to trouble in Q1 2027. “this is so obviously a canary in the coal mine” ▶ 23:11 If Not Now, Then When Will These AI Companies Go… · 12 Oct
Their output
4 this weekThu 8Thu 15 · 1Fri 16
Stories it travels in
i
The stories
- ○ a voice, on the left
- ◌ a voice raising half of these
- ● a subject, on the right, under its story
- ⌒ a line is a voice raising a subject — thicker, more items; colour is the story
The stories this entity travels in: on the right, each story with the subjects seen alongside it; on the left, the voices that raised them, and a line for every subject a voice raised, bundled by story. Tap a voice to light everything it raises, a subject for who raised it, a story for its own lines. The crumb goes back.
Who brings it up
- Guy Adami 1 mention
- Deirdre Bosa 1 mention
- Caleb Silver 1 mention
- David Rosenberg 1 mention
What they talk about
- AI 4 items
- IPO 4 items
- US 4 items
- NVIDIA Corporation 4 items
- NASDAQ 4 items
- earnings 4 items
- Microsoft Corporation 4 items
- rate hike 3 items
See what your own voices say about Dan Nathan, every morning.
Start a desk