On Monetary Matters, Jack Farley framed a new communication regime at the Fed under Kevin Warsh, pressing Kathryn Rooney Vera on how to invest when the Fed offers far less guidance and the curve must do more of the signaling 1. He also highlighted commodity inputs, noting he tracks sulfur prices as a potential driver of fertilizer and food inflation, and probed where monthly inflation would force Warsh to hike to preserve credibility 1. In a separate episode with Nicholas Brooks, Farley contrasted prior bearish takes on private credit with Brooks’ more sanguine data-driven view, then offered his own post‑interview views on reflexivity in private markets, BDC valuations, fund gating, and the outsized role of the Fed in corporate interest burdens 2. He pushed back on the idea that high rates are stimulative, calling that notion overblown, and emphasized how rate moves drove earnings-to-interest metrics in 2022 and after cuts 2.
From the window to Aug 1, 05:30 ET — this window's take is still to be written.
On the record
last 30 days · 11 positionsLatest positions
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Jack FarleyBullish on Thermo Fisher
Thermo Scientific and Danaher are blue chips where catastrophic loss of principal over 15 years is unlikely.
“the odds of a catastrophic loss of principal would be low”
▶ 1:02:07 Token Bill Dwarfs CPU Bill | Ben Pouladian on Me… · 30 Sept
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Jack FarleyBullish on Danaher
Thermo Scientific and Danaher are blue chips where catastrophic loss of principal over 15 years is unlikely.
“the odds of a catastrophic loss of principal would be low”
▶ 1:02:07 Token Bill Dwarfs CPU Bill | Ben Pouladian on Me… · 30 Sept
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Jack FarleyStrongly for on agriculture
Farley says it is good that the US and most of the world subsidize food and farming.
“i think it's good that the us subsidizes food and farming and it's good that most of the world does as well”
▶ 35:46 Why Farmland With Centuries of Water Is the Ulti… · 11 Sept
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Jack FarleyStrongly bullish on farmland
Farley calls farmland and food security one of the more underappreciated real asset stories in markets right now.
“why I think this is one of the more underappreciated real asset stories in markets right now”
▶ 0:00 Why Farmland With Centuries of Water Is the Ulti… · 11 Sept
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Jack FarleyStrongly bullish on AI
Farley dismisses the idea that a 5% 10-year yield will kill the AI trade, saying the AI trade will survive and Silicon Valley is laughing at the bears.
“how a 5% 10-year Treasury yield is going to kill the AI trade (spoiler alert, it's not”
Open the post When you're so levered long legacy enterprise so… · 10 Sept
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Jack FarleyFor on Apollo Global Management
Farley defends Apollo's Federal Home Loan Bank borrowing, saying Athene is a massive mortgage lender and other FHLB borrowers are further from the mission.
“I actually think that there's a lot of nonsense for the FHLB lending that's like not Apollo”
▶ 45:50 What Actually Happens When a Life Insurer Fails … · 6 Sept
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Jack FarleyRisk rising sharply on private credit
The same ratings-inflation flywheel that led up to 2008 is at play now in private credit.
“So the same ratings inflation flywheel that we saw that led up to 2008 is at play now”
▶ 26:09 What Actually Happens When a Life Insurer Fails … · 6 Sept
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Jack FarleyBullish on life insurance
The number of life insurance and annuity policies issued in coming years is almost guaranteed to keep growing on demographics.
“the amount of life insurance and annuity policies that are going to be issued in the future years is almost guaranteed to continue to grow”
▶ 1:06:02 What Actually Happens When a Life Insurer Fails … · 6 Sept
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Jack FarleyRisk rising sharply on life insurance
Because life and annuity risk is easy to model, insurers have juiced up leverage and risk immensely.
“people have just juiced up the leverage and risk immensely”
▶ 33:22 What Actually Happens When a Life Insurer Fails … · 6 Sept
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Jack FarleyBullish on bonds
He is inclined to agree with Dillian that demand for bonds will catch up and bond yields will not go to the moon.
“So I think that demand is going to catch up. It definitely is.”
▶ 4:01 “I’m Insanely Bullish on Bonds” | Jared Dillian … · 3 Sept
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Jack FarleyBullish on semiconductors
Retail positioning in semis is among the lowest in two years and the July 27 leverage washout likely marked the bottom.
“retail positioning in semiconductors is... among the lowest it's been over the past two years”
▶ 11:19 “I’m Insanely Bullish on Bonds” | Jared Dillian … · 3 Sept
Their output
118 in September 2026Stories it travels in
i
The stories
- ○ a voice, on the left
- ◌ a voice raising half of these
- ● a subject, on the right, under its story
- ⌒ a line is a voice raising a subject — thicker, more items; colour is the story
The stories this entity travels in: on the right, each story with the subjects seen alongside it; on the left, the voices that raised them, and a line for every subject a voice raised, bundled by story. Tap a voice to light everything it raises, a subject for who raised it, a story for its own lines. The crumb goes back.
Who brings it up
- Max Wiethe 16 mentions
- Javier Blas 6 mentions
- Joseph Wang 4 mentions
- Quinn Thompson 2 mentions
- David Busch 1 mention
- Andrew Granato 1 mention
- Freddie Brick 1 mention
- John Farris 1 mention
What they talk about
- Federal Reserve System 20 items
- Joseph Wang 15 items
- Max Wiethe 14 items
- AI 13 items
- Kevin Warsh 13 items
- private credit 13 items · disputed
- Apple Inc. 12 items
- US 10 items
See what your own voices say about Jack Farley, every morning.
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