Julien Bittel, CFA

Latest positions

• JBJulien Bittel, CFABullish on GMI Expects the GMI Total Liquidity Index to trend higher, with liquidity rising into 2026. “Either way, I believe we're going higher.” Open the post I wanted to share a few thoughts on liquidity fr… · 29 Oct
• JBJulien Bittel, CFAStrongly hawkish on People's Bank of China Expects the PBoC balance sheet to keep expanding, potentially reaching around $8 trillion by end-2026. “the PBoC can deploy its balance sheet, which this month hit a record high and could reach around $8 trillion by the end of 2026” Open the post I wanted to share a few thoughts on liquidity fr… · 29 Oct
• JBJulien Bittel, CFASharply improving on US Expects a wall of US liquidity once the shutdown ends, with TGA spend, rate cuts, end of QT and a return to ample reserves. “That's a wall of liquidity coming, and that's just the US…” Open the post I wanted to share a few thoughts on liquidity fr… · 29 Oct
• JBJulien Bittel, CFADovish on Federal Reserve System Expects a more dovish Fed, with rate cuts, the end of QT and a repo tweak to ease tightness. “We believe a more dovish Fed, rising PBoC liquidity, and strong Q4 seasonals are all lining up” Open the post I wanted to share a few thoughts on liquidity fr… · 29 Oct
• JBJulien Bittel, CFABullish on housing Expects lower rates to feed through to rate-sensitive housing and drive the business cycle higher. “Lower rates then feed through to more rate-sensitive and leading areas of the economy like housing” Open the post I wanted to share a few thoughts on liquidity fr… · 29 Oct
• JBJulien Bittel, CFARising on ISM Expects the ISM to be driven higher by the liquidity cycle, following financial conditions and liquidity. “GMI Financial Conditions Index > GMI Total Liquidity Index > ISM” Open the post I wanted to share a few thoughts on liquidity fr… · 29 Oct
• JBJulien Bittel, CFAImproving on China Expects China to play a major role in pushing the liquidity cycle higher, with the PBoC able to deploy its balance sheet. “That, in my view, would likely mark the peak of the liquidity cycle, with China playing a major role.” Open the post I wanted to share a few thoughts on liquidity fr… · 29 Oct
• JBJulien Bittel, CFARising on unemployment rate Expects the unemployment rate to continue rising, which keeps the Fed engaged. “Lagging data, particularly the unemployment rate, continues to rise and that is what keeps the Fed engaged.” Open the post Ok, let’s get one thing straight… Delinquency r… · 26 Oct
• JBJulien Bittel, CFAStrongly bullish on housing Expects lower rates to feed through to rate-sensitive areas like housing, driving the next leg of the business cycle higher. “which will eventually feed through to rate-sensitive areas of the economy like housing and manufacturing, driving the next leg of the business cycle higher” Open the post Ok, let’s get one thing straight… Delinquency r… · 26 Oct
• JBJulien Bittel, CFAStrongly bullish on manufacturing Expects lower rates to feed through to rate-sensitive areas like manufacturing, driving the next leg of the business cycle higher. “which will eventually feed through to rate-sensitive areas of the economy like housing and manufacturing, driving the next leg of the business cycle higher” Open the post Ok, let’s get one thing straight… Delinquency r… · 26 Oct
• JBJulien Bittel, CFADovish on Federal Reserve System Expects the Fed to cut rates, with the labor market doing what it needs to bring rates lower. “The labor market is doing exactly what it needs to do to bring rates lower” Open the post Ok, let’s get one thing straight… Delinquency r… · 26 Oct
• JBJulien Bittel, CFARising on ISM Says the ISM bottomed in March 2023 and started turning higher. “By March 2023, exactly nine months later, the ISM and our GMI index had also bottomed and started turning higher.” Open the post Ok, let’s get one thing straight… Delinquency r… · 26 Oct