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Nate Hagens

This week · 2 items
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This week · spoke in 2 items · 8 topics

Oct 8 → Oct 15, 05:30 ET · Last update Oct 11, 17:25 ET (for the window to Oct 11, 05:30)

Earlier: September 2026

Sceptical

Nate Hagens discussed AI risks through an Icarus metaphor, framing civilization as an energy-consuming organism whose ability to sense, coordinate and exploit resources could be amplified by AI 1. He also hosted Arthur Berman for a discussion of Middle East geopolitics, energy supply, oil and gas buffers, and the possibility that dwindling resilience could precede a major energy shock 2.

From the window to Oct 11, 05:30 ET — this window's take is still to be written.

On the record

last 90 days · 34 positions
coal +1.5 · 2Artificial Intelligence -0.5 · 2gas +1.0 · 1renewables +1.0 · 1mining +1.0 · 1data centers +1.0 · 1Jevons Paradox +1.0 · 1farming +1.0 · 1

Latest positions

  • NHNate HagensVery high risk on AI Sees AI as a huge, possibly civilization-ending risk — humanity's Icarus moment — with dangers on both sides of the flight path. “I now think it is quite possible the advent of AI will be humanity's Icarus moment.” ▶ 0:00 Humanity's Icarus Moment: The Wings, the Sea, an… · 9 Oct
  • NHNate HagensVery high risk on Artificial Intelligence Sees artificial intelligence as carrying grave risks along humanity's flight path, from fossil lock-in to loss of shared reality. “I fervently wish it had never been invented” ▶ 0:00 Humanity's Icarus Moment: The Wings, the Sea, an… · 9 Oct
  • NHNate HagensVery high risk on private credit Warns that most AI borrowing has moved off balance sheet into private credit and SPVs where nobody, including regulators, can see the size of it. ▶ 10:54 Humanity's Icarus Moment: The Wings, the Sea, an… · 9 Oct
  • NHNate HagensVery high risk on special purpose vehicles Warns that AI debt hidden in special purpose vehicles is invisible even to regulators and rhymes with 2008. “into private credit and special purpose vehicles. where nobody, including the regulators, can really see the size of it” ▶ 10:54 Humanity's Icarus Moment: The Wings, the Sea, an… · 9 Oct
  • NHNate HagensHigh risk on Wall Street Sees Wall Street financing the largest infrastructure build-out in history on AI revenues that do not exist yet, a 2008-like risk. ▶ 10:54 Humanity's Icarus Moment: The Wings, the Sea, an… · 9 Oct
  • NHNate HagensBullish on Artificial Intelligence Expects AI use to spread and become a defining social and political divide, with a small share of people working intensively with it and everyone else using it indirectly. “I expect only a very small portion of humans, at least in the USA, will intensively work with AI” ▶ 39:01 Humanity's Icarus Moment: The Wings, the Sea, an… · 9 Oct
  • NHNate HagensBullish on data centers Expects data center load and appetite for energy and materials to keep growing. “Skyrocketing data center load is arriving at the exact moment utilities were retiring coal” ▶ 5:38 Humanity's Icarus Moment: The Wings, the Sea, an… · 9 Oct
  • NHNate HagensRising on Jevons Paradox Expects total energy consumption to keep rising even as energy per token falls, because cheaper thinking means more thinking. “total energy use total consumption rose anyway, because cheaper thinking means more overall thinking” ▶ 9:10 Humanity's Icarus Moment: The Wings, the Sea, an… · 9 Oct
  • NHNate HagensWorsening on Africa Expects Africa's coming generation of young workers to find their jobs taken by AI, leaving hundreds of millions with no path upwards. ▶ 42:38 Humanity's Icarus Moment: The Wings, the Sea, an… · 9 Oct
  • NHNate HagensBullish on coal Expects coal retirements worldwide to be deferred as data center load arrives. “now coal retirements around the world are being deferred” ▶ 5:38 Humanity's Icarus Moment: The Wings, the Sea, an… · 9 Oct
  • NHNate HagensHigh risk on Oracle Corporation Sees Oracle's credit default swaps blowing out as a sign of growing hidden credit risk in the AI build-out. “We've seen signs of this with the Oracle credit default swaps blowing out in the last couple of weeks.” ▶ 10:54 Humanity's Icarus Moment: The Wings, the Sea, an… · 9 Oct
  • NHNate HagensBullish on gas Expects gas plant use and construction to rise, with mothballed plants restarted and turbines ordered in gigawatt blocks. “Mothballed gas plants are being restarted. Combined cycle turbines are being ordered in gigawatt blocks” ▶ 5:38 Humanity's Icarus Moment: The Wings, the Sea, an… · 9 Oct

Their output

2 this week
Wed 7Tue 13 · 1Thu 15

Stories it travels in

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The stories

  • ○ a voice, on the left
  • ◌ a voice raising half of these
  • ● a subject, on the right, under its story
  • ⌒ a line is a voice raising a subject — thicker, more items; colour is the story

The stories this entity travels in: on the right, each story with the subjects seen alongside it; on the left, the voices that raised them, and a line for every subject a voice raised, bundled by story. Tap a voice to light everything it raises, a subject for who raised it, a story for its own lines. The crumb goes back.

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