O
oil
Shifted: sceptical → expectant
The dominant discussion is that oil remains elevated because Middle East disruption, reduced crude flows, depleted inventories and exceptionally tight refined-product markets are offsetting reports of recovering Hormuz traffic 11826. Several commentators see substantial upside risk, with Josh Young arguing that pessimistic crude positioning historically precedes higher prices 1, while David Hay said $200 oil would not be outlandish 24. Others are bearish or cautious: David Hunter expects oil to roll over, and James Stanley sees the price action as inconsistent with the fundamentals and avoids buying it 831.
From the window to Oct 6, 05:30 ET — this window's take is still to be written.
Where the voices land
All voices 14 voices2 bearish1 range-bound1 mixed10 bullish
Strongly bearish
- JBJavier BlasStrongly bearish Remains bearish relative to very bullish takes; does not see oil going to $150, $175 or $200 a barrel. “I remain berries. I still don't see that we are going to go to $150, $175, $200.” ▶ 4:45 Why Oil Hasn't Hit $200—and What Happens Next | … · 14 Oct
- RBRobin BrooksStrongly bearish Expects Iran's attempt to spike oil prices to fail, so oil prices will not rise. “it's trying to spike oil prices as much as possible. It won't work...” Open the post The reason Iran is attacking lots of ships is be… · 13 Oct
Range-bound
- PBPeter BerezinRange-bound Sees no huge scope for relief in oil prices this year or next year, though things may improve after that. ▶ 7:12 No Relief Until 2027—Then Stocks Face Reset | Pe… · 13 Oct
Mixed
- RJRory JohnstonMixed Sees both bullish and bearish forces for oil: attacks are slowing the recovery in Hormuz flows, but attacks are at the war's heaviest pace with over 10 MMbpd still clearing the Strait. “Bullish: these attacks unsurprisingly appear to be slowing and at least partially reversing the recently robust recovery in Hormuz oil flows. Bearish: this is now the heaviest pace of attacks in Hormuz of the war” Open the post For oil, Bullish: these attacks unsurprisingly … · 10 Oct
Bullish
- THThomas HayesBullish Expects oil to stay elevated for an extended period, feeding into input costs and inflation expectations. “people looking down the road as oil stays elevated for an extended period of time” ▶ 25:17 Great Rotation Happening Now: Why Chip Stocks Ar… · 13 Oct
- FCFiona CincottaBullish Expects oil to remain constructive and reclaim $95, with $100 back in focus if 50 EMA support holds. “if we find that 50 emi support holds and the outlook actually remains fairly constructive buyers could look to reclaim 95 dollars” ▶ 2:57 Why Russian Diesel Can't Fix Oil While Hormuz St… · 12 Oct
- DNDan NathanBullish Expects a premium in oil to persist until the Iran-related conflict resolves. “you're going to see a premium in oil until there is some” ▶ 27:49 If Not Now, Then When Will These AI Companies Go… · 12 Oct
Strongly bullish
- SHSteve H. HankeStrongly bullish Expects physical oil prices to stay high, with landed physical prices running 35-40% above quoted futures prices, due to low inventories and logistical bottlenecks. “The physical oil prices are up about 35, 40% greater than the prices we're quoting right now” ▶ 21:32 Hot Inflation Shocks Markets: The Worst Is Still… · 14 Oct
- AMAlasdair MacleodStrongly bullish Expects oil and other commodities to rise roughly fourfold in gold terms as suppressed prices revert toward par. ▶ 11:27 Alasdair Macleod: Gold Could Explode as Fiat Cur… · 14 Oct
- ABAmena BakrStrongly bullish Expects oil prices to rise given escalating conflict, exposed energy infrastructure, more vessel attacks in Hormuz and depleted stocks. “You can guess which direction oil prices will go.” Open the post The conflict is escalating, energy infrastructur… · 14 Oct
- MEMichael EveryStrongly bullish Expects energy prices, at least for physical oil, to stay higher for longer as the regional escalation continues. “Higher for longer is the risk for energy prices, at least for physical” Open the post The Houthis threatened to hit Saudi oil after th… · 13 Oct
- BEBob ElliottStrongly bullish Expects the oil market to get tighter, with no relief coming at the pump. “it's all marginal in the face of an oil market that if anything looks like it's getting tighter” Open the post No Relief Coming At The Pump Despite all the rh… · 12 Oct
- RDRichard D. WolffStrongly bullish Expects the price of oil to keep rising, with the biggest inflation impact still to come as the war continues. “the biggest impact on inflation is about to come when we have no more way of holding back the rising price of oil” ▶ 21:13 Oil Crisis Escalates: When Does Iran War End? | … · 10 Oct
- PBPeter BoockvarStrongly bullish Expects crude oil prices to stay elevated for a while as the conflict drags on and barrels remain offline. “And that's going to keep prices elevated for a while.” ▶ 36:58 Bond Market Dominoes: The Path to 6% Rates with … · 9 Oct
Middle East conflict and Hormuz 5 voices1 bearish1 mixed3 bullish
Strongly bearish
- RBRobin BrooksStrongly bearish Expects Iran's attempt to spike oil prices to fail, so oil prices will not rise. “it's trying to spike oil prices as much as possible. It won't work...” Open the post The reason Iran is attacking lots of ships is be… · 13 Oct
Mixed
- RJRory JohnstonMixed Sees both bullish and bearish forces for oil: attacks are slowing the recovery in Hormuz flows, but attacks are at the war's heaviest pace with over 10 MMbpd still clearing the Strait. “Bullish: these attacks unsurprisingly appear to be slowing and at least partially reversing the recently robust recovery in Hormuz oil flows. Bearish: this is now the heaviest pace of attacks in Hormuz of the war” Open the post For oil, Bullish: these attacks unsurprisingly … · 10 Oct
Bullish
- DNDan NathanBullish Expects a premium in oil to persist until the Iran-related conflict resolves. “you're going to see a premium in oil until there is some” ▶ 27:49 If Not Now, Then When Will These AI Companies Go… · 12 Oct
Strongly bullish
- ABAmena BakrStrongly bullish Expects oil prices to rise given escalating conflict, exposed energy infrastructure, more vessel attacks in Hormuz and depleted stocks. “You can guess which direction oil prices will go.” Open the post The conflict is escalating, energy infrastructur… · 14 Oct
- MEMichael EveryStrongly bullish Expects energy prices, at least for physical oil, to stay higher for longer as the regional escalation continues. “Higher for longer is the risk for energy prices, at least for physical” Open the post The Houthis threatened to hit Saudi oil after th… · 13 Oct
Inflation, rates and market positioning 4 voices4 bullish
Bullish
- THThomas HayesBullish Expects oil to stay elevated for an extended period, feeding into input costs and inflation expectations. “people looking down the road as oil stays elevated for an extended period of time” ▶ 25:17 Great Rotation Happening Now: Why Chip Stocks Ar… · 13 Oct
- FCFiona CincottaBullish Expects oil to remain constructive and reclaim $95, with $100 back in focus if 50 EMA support holds. “if we find that 50 emi support holds and the outlook actually remains fairly constructive buyers could look to reclaim 95 dollars” ▶ 2:57 Why Russian Diesel Can't Fix Oil While Hormuz St… · 12 Oct
Strongly bullish
- AMAlasdair MacleodStrongly bullish Expects oil and other commodities to rise roughly fourfold in gold terms as suppressed prices revert toward par. ▶ 11:27 Alasdair Macleod: Gold Could Explode as Fiat Cur… · 14 Oct
- RDRichard D. WolffStrongly bullish Expects the price of oil to keep rising, with the biggest inflation impact still to come as the war continues. “the biggest impact on inflation is about to come when we have no more way of holding back the rising price of oil” ▶ 21:13 Oil Crisis Escalates: When Does Iran War End? | … · 10 Oct
Supply, inventories and spare capacity 3 voices3 bullish
Strongly bullish
- SHSteve H. HankeStrongly bullish Expects physical oil prices to stay high, with landed physical prices running 35-40% above quoted futures prices, due to low inventories and logistical bottlenecks. “The physical oil prices are up about 35, 40% greater than the prices we're quoting right now” ▶ 21:32 Hot Inflation Shocks Markets: The Worst Is Still… · 14 Oct
- BEBob ElliottStrongly bullish Expects the oil market to get tighter, with no relief coming at the pump. “it's all marginal in the face of an oil market that if anything looks like it's getting tighter” Open the post No Relief Coming At The Pump Despite all the rh… · 12 Oct
- PBPeter BoockvarStrongly bullish Expects crude oil prices to stay elevated for a while as the conflict drags on and barrels remain offline. “And that's going to keep prices elevated for a while.” ▶ 36:58 Bond Market Dominoes: The Path to 6% Rates with … · 9 Oct
2 bearish1 range-bound1 mixed10 bullish
Mentions
179 this weekWed 7Sun 11 · 33Thu 15
Stories it travels in
i
The stories
- ○ a voice, on the left
- ◌ a voice raising half of these
- ● a subject, on the right, under its story
- ⌒ a line is a voice raising a subject — thicker, more items; colour is the story
The stories this entity travels in: on the right, each story with the subjects seen alongside it; on the left, the voices that raised them, and a line for every subject a voice raised, bundled by story. Tap a voice to light everything it raises, a subject for who raised it, a story for its own lines. The crumb goes back.
Who brings it up
- Bloomberg 44 mentions
- Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) 15 mentions
- Javier Blas 14 mentions
- Walter Bloomberg 12 mentions
- Anas Alhajji 12 mentions
- David Lin 10 mentions
- Rory Johnston 9 mentions
- Robin Brooks 8 mentions
See what your own voices say about oil, every morning.
Start a desk