Rory Johnston focused on surging attacks and still-elevated oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the acute diesel squeeze, and policy responses like reserve releases and potential US diesel export restrictions. He repeatedly defended tanker/satellite flow data against claims of manipulation, arguing flows recovered at great cost but are not back to normal and may be slowing, while warning that high distillate cracks and thin buffers heighten risk heading into winter 28131517182934364041. He discussed Europe’s diesel SPR mechanics and timing, and the political calculus of a US diesel export ban, including downstream impacts on refinery runs, product supply, and Canadian heavy crude differentials 1920252628294950.
From the window to Oct 5, 05:30 ET — this window's take is still to be written.
On the record
last 90 days · 50 positionsLatest positions
- RJRory JohnstonStrongly cheap on United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Despite its flaws, Johnston judges UKMTO an especially valuable confirmed list of attacks. “But it’s an especially valuable confirmed list of [dramatically accelerating and escalating] attacks” Open the post People have their issues with UKMTO (reports to … · 13 Oct
- RJRory JohnstonBearish on crude Expects crude prices to fall, treating the explosions as bearish for crude. “Guess all those explosions are bearish for crude prices.” Open the post Guess all those explosions are bearish for crude… · 11 Oct
- RJRory JohnstonMixed on oil Sees both bullish and bearish forces for oil: attacks are slowing the recovery in Hormuz flows, but attacks are at the war's heaviest pace with over 10 MMbpd still clearing the Strait. “Bullish: these attacks unsurprisingly appear to be slowing and at least partially reversing the recently robust recovery in Hormuz oil flows. Bearish: this is now the heaviest pace of attacks in Hormuz of the war” Open the post For oil, Bullish: these attacks unsurprisingly … · 10 Oct
- RJRory JohnstonHigh risk on Strait of Hormuz Says the Strait of Hormuz is not safe right now, i.e. the risk there is elevated. “Guys, I don’t think the Strait of Hormuz is safe right now” Open the post Guys, I don’t think the Strait of Hormuz is safe… · 5 Oct
- RJRory JohnstonFalling on oil flows Expects the recent record-high oil flows to waver or at least slow, since the current structure was never sustainable. “early data already looks to be wavering or at the very least recent gains are have slowed” Open the post Purposefully misleading claim. Yes, recent oil … · 3 Oct
- RJRory JohnstonBullish on crude oil Expects the crude market to remain tight, with prices above $100 and prompt backwardation persisting despite rising flows. ▶ 46:09 Hormuz, Diesel & the Return of the Geopolitical … · 2 Oct
- RJRory JohnstonWorsening on Iran Expects Iran's influence and standing to erode as 20 million b/d keeps leaving the Middle East. “My argument is that eventually, I think 20 million barrels a day leaving the Middle East does generally begin to erode their influence” ▶ 43:03 Hormuz, Diesel & the Return of the Geopolitical … · 2 Oct
- RJRory JohnstonBullish on crude oil Expects the crude oil market to remain tight, with prices above 100 and prompt backwardation persisting, even as flows rise. “this market remains tight, even on even on crude, even while crude flows are rising” ▶ 38:24 Hormuz, Diesel & the Return of the Geopolitical … · 2 Oct
- RJRory JohnstonBullish on diesel Expects the release of 50 million barrels of emergency EU diesel over ~120 days to be a big help to seaborne diesel supply, adding ~415 kbpd. “50 million barrels of emergency EU diesel supply over ~120 days = ~415 kbpd additional diesel flow rate” Open the post Ok here we go! 50 million barrels of emergency … · 2 Oct
- RJRory JohnstonStable on Saudi Arabia Expects Saudi oil loadings to stop rising at this pace, i.e. to level off rather than keep climbing. “I don't expect that this will continue at this pace for long” Open the post 🇸🇦🛢️ Saudi Arabia West (Red Rea) vs East (Gul… · 2 Oct
- RJRory JohnstonFor on diesel SPRs Europe should be releasing its diesel strategic reserves now, unless it expects the problem to worsen. “This is exactly when Europe *should* be releasing it's diesel SPRs” Open the post Energy Secretary Wright isn't wrong. This is ex… · 1 Oct
- RJRory JohnstonStrongly against on SPR Johnston is against filling the SPR with crude while the market is in backwardation. “if anyone seriously proposes filling the SPR with crude backwardation where it's currently sitting then they're not a serious person” Open the post Guys, easy filter: if anyone seriously proposes … · 1 Oct
Their output
57 this weekStories it travels in
i
The stories
- ○ a voice, on the left
- ◌ a voice raising half of these
- ● a subject, on the right, under its story
- ⌒ a line is a voice raising a subject — thicker, more items; colour is the story
The stories this entity travels in: on the right, each story with the subjects seen alongside it; on the left, the voices that raised them, and a line for every subject a voice raised, bundled by story. Tap a voice to light everything it raises, a subject for who raised it, a story for its own lines. The crumb goes back.
Who brings it up
- Javier Blas 2 mentions
- Jeffrey Currie ++ 1 mention
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