Steph Pomboy discussed policymakers’ retreat from their campaign plans, arguing that Warsh and Besset had been forced to maintain or adopt policies they had criticised, including continued T-bill purchases and front-end financing 2. She said this raised questions about whether they underestimated the difficulty of the job or overestimated their ability to solve an impossible situation 2. Pomboy also outlined analytical lessons on dissecting economic data and focusing on the rate of change in interest rates, not just their levels 2. Separately, she said she had previously promoted a gold-backed bond idea to people connected with the administration but was rejected 1.
From the window to Oct 9, 05:30 ET — this window's take is still to be written.
On the record
last 90 days · 12 positionsLatest positions
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steph pomboyOn hold on Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Expects the Fed is one and done and will not continue raising rates.
“I think it was one and done. I don't anticipate that they're going to continue to raise rates.”
▶ 32:07 Stephanie Pomboy: The Higher Yields Go, The High… · 7 Oct
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steph pomboyStrongly bearish on Oracle Corporation
Expects Oracle to be downgraded to junk, which would reverberate through the investment grade market.
“I've been waiting, I think it's imminent. The downgrade of Oracle to junk.”
▶ 11:42 Stephanie Pomboy: The Higher Yields Go, The High… · 7 Oct
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steph pomboySharply falling on consumer spending
Expects consumer spending to prove unsustainable and weaken as households exhaust investment income and assets.
“it's also cast doubt on the sustainability of the consumer spending that we're seeing right now”
▶ 8:34 Stephanie Pomboy: The Higher Yields Go, The High… · 7 Oct
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steph pomboySharply rising on deficit
Expects the deficit to blow out to the upside if the stock market corrects, with $2tn deficits becoming $4tn.
“the deficit in that situation of the stock market corrected would just blow out to the upside”
▶ 41:17 Stephanie Pomboy: The Higher Yields Go, The High… · 7 Oct
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steph pomboyStrongly bearish on stock market
Expects a dramatic stock market crack rather than a slow decline, echoing 1987 or 2018.
▶ 5:37 Stephanie Pomboy: The Higher Yields Go, The High… · 7 Oct
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steph pomboyVery high risk on triple B
Sees growing risk in the BBB segment of investment grade credit, where a downgrade wave could hit the whole market.
“if and when Oracle does get downgraded to junk, it's going to have massive. reverberations throughout the entire investment grade market”
▶ 13:07 Stephanie Pomboy: The Higher Yields Go, The High… · 7 Oct
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steph pomboyMixed on bond market
Sees a powerful near-term rally at the long end on flight-to-safety and short covering, but expects rates to go back higher afterward on the deficit.
▶ 11:42 Stephanie Pomboy: The Higher Yields Go, The High… · 7 Oct
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steph pomboyVery high risk on AI
Sees the AI trade as precarious and already taking on water, with credit stress emerging.
“sustaining this AI bonanza trade, which already is taking on water”
▶ 11:42 Stephanie Pomboy: The Higher Yields Go, The High… · 7 Oct
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steph pomboyVery high risk on credit market
Sees credit stress building around the AI trade, with problems showing up in credit before equities.
“even in that AI space, you're seeing credit stress around that trade”
▶ 31:30 Stephanie Pomboy: The Higher Yields Go, The High… · 7 Oct
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steph pomboySteady on inflation
Expects prices to keep rising, with the rate of increase (inflation) staying positive even as it moderates.
“the price of everything that they buy has just keeps going higher and higher at a slightly slower pace”
▶ 3:55 Stephanie Pomboy: The Higher Yields Go, The High… · 7 Oct
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steph pomboyStrongly dovish on public pension plans
Public pensions will need a monumental bailout after the next bubble busts, having been bankrupted by ZIRP and pushed into risky alternatives.
“the inevitable (and monumental) bailout of public pensions that will be 'required' after the next bubble bust”
Open the post MacroMavens masochists have long heard me bemoan… · 8 Sept
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steph pomboyRisk rising sharply on alternative assets
Pensions fled into high-yielding alternative assets without understanding the risk involved.
“they ran to high-yielding 'alternative assets' to fulfill 7%+ return mandates. Their lack of understand of risk is almost Costanza-esque!!”
Open the post MacroMavens masochists have long heard me bemoan… · 8 Sept
Their output
1 this weekStories it travels in
i
The stories
- ○ a voice, on the left
- ◌ a voice raising half of these
- ● a subject, on the right, under its story
- ⌒ a line is a voice raising a subject — thicker, more items; colour is the story
The stories this entity travels in: on the right, each story with the subjects seen alongside it; on the left, the voices that raised them, and a line for every subject a voice raised, bundled by story. Tap a voice to light everything it raises, a subject for who raised it, a story for its own lines. The crumb goes back.
Who brings it up
- Lance Roberts 1 mention
- Grant Williams 1 mention
- Adam Taggart 1 mention
What they talk about
- Grant Williams 1 item
- gold backed-bond 1 item
See what your own voices say about steph pomboy, every morning.
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