bonds
Shifted: sceptical → expectant
Commentators increasingly describe bonds as more attractive after the rise in yields, particularly relative to expensive equities. Some expect a bond rally if growth weakens or equities sell off, while others warn that yields have not peaked and that inflation, debt supply and fiscal risks could keep pressuring prices. Credit stress is also emerging in selected corporate bonds, including AI-related issuers and Virgin Media O2. 168101213151624283032
Where the voices land
All voices 12 voices4 bearish8 bullish
Strongly bearish
- CSCaleb SilverStrongly bearish Expects the bond market's multi-year bear market to continue, not change anytime soon. “the bond market has been in a bear market for years. And I don't see that changing anytime soon.” ▶ 5:57 Shaking The Leaves Off The Money Tree | Invest… · 13 Oct
- MMMike McGloneStrongly bearish Expects bond yields to drop as fast or faster than they rallied once the stock market breaks, and stay down a long time. “Those yields are going to drop much as fast or faster than they rally, and they'll stay down a long time” ▶ 17:15 ‘Very Similar To 1987': Here's What Bonds Break … · 8 Oct
- LGLuke GromenStrongly bearish Expects bonds to keep falling in price (yields rising) and prefers expressing the short via gold, silver and Bitcoin rather than shorting bonds. “you want to be short bonds, don't short bonds, buy gold, buy silver, buy a little Bitcoin” ▶ 7:57 Does the Administration believe they can inflate… · 8 Oct
Bearish
- LALyn AldenBearish Expects bond prices to keep falling (a structural bond bear), though she may turn neutral as the bearish talk gets crowded. “As a structural bond bear, I actually don’t find this recent bear surge in bonds surprising.” Open the post As a structural bond bear, I actually don’t find… · 11 Oct
Bullish
- ʎꞱʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹqBullish Expects bonds to rally if the selling in AI favorites becomes large enough. “if that move becomes large enough, bonds start to rally” Open the post You can see that the market is moving towards a … · 14 Oct
- THThomas HayesBullish Expects bonds to get a bid as pensions lock in yields and reallocate away from equities. “where bonds start to get a bid” ▶ 9:52 Great Rotation Happening Now: Why Chip Stocks Ar… · 13 Oct
- TCTavi CostaBullish Expects a rotation into bonds over the next two years as earnings growth normalizes. ▶ 21:00 Bond Market Reckoning: Why Your Money Is Next | … · 12 Oct
Strongly bullish
- AMAlasdair MacleodStrongly bullish Expects bond yields to rise significantly over the next two to three months. “over the next two to three months, bond yields will rise and they will rise significantly” ▶ 7:13 Alasdair Macleod: Gold Could Explode as Fiat Cur… · 14 Oct
- MHMichael HowellStrongly bullish Expects a bond rally over the cycle as positioning is so negative and growth attenuates. “I think the pressures are building for a bond rally because everyone's so negative” ▶ 37:40 MICHAEL HOWELL | Always buy the dip in monetary … · 14 Oct
- PBPeter BerezinStrongly bullish Would get bullish on 10-year Treasuries at a 5.5% yield, locking in a ~3% real yield, and may go long in coming weeks. “5.5% is the level in the 10-year that I've been saying that would be high enough for me to get bullish on bonds” ▶ 14:50 No Relief Until 2027—Then Stocks Face Reset | Pe… · 13 Oct
- CDCameron DawsonStrongly bullish Expects yields to remain in a distinct long-term uptrend, with a higher cost of capital persisting and a 6% 10-year yield not far off. “we've very much moved into a world where there is a distinct uptrend in yields” ▶ 32:10 It's A New World Order For Markets | Cameron Daw… · 13 Oct
- LRLance RobertsStrongly bullish Expects bonds to perform well and yields to fall in the next real bear market, making bonds more valuable. “when we get into the next kind of real bear market correction, yields are going to fall during that corrective process” ▶ 41:55 Value Stocks Set To Outperform Tech Into The End… · 10 Oct
Yields and rate path 9 voices4 bearish5 bullish
Strongly bearish
- CSCaleb SilverStrongly bearish Expects the bond market's multi-year bear market to continue, not change anytime soon. “the bond market has been in a bear market for years. And I don't see that changing anytime soon.” ▶ 5:57 Shaking The Leaves Off The Money Tree | Invest… · 13 Oct
- MMMike McGloneStrongly bearish Expects bond yields to drop as fast or faster than they rallied once the stock market breaks, and stay down a long time. “Those yields are going to drop much as fast or faster than they rally, and they'll stay down a long time” ▶ 17:15 ‘Very Similar To 1987': Here's What Bonds Break … · 8 Oct
- LGLuke GromenStrongly bearish Expects bonds to keep falling in price (yields rising) and prefers expressing the short via gold, silver and Bitcoin rather than shorting bonds. “you want to be short bonds, don't short bonds, buy gold, buy silver, buy a little Bitcoin” ▶ 7:57 Does the Administration believe they can inflate… · 8 Oct
Bearish
- LALyn AldenBearish Expects bond prices to keep falling (a structural bond bear), though she may turn neutral as the bearish talk gets crowded. “As a structural bond bear, I actually don’t find this recent bear surge in bonds surprising.” Open the post As a structural bond bear, I actually don’t find… · 11 Oct
Strongly bullish
- AMAlasdair MacleodStrongly bullish Expects bond yields to rise significantly over the next two to three months. “over the next two to three months, bond yields will rise and they will rise significantly” ▶ 7:13 Alasdair Macleod: Gold Could Explode as Fiat Cur… · 14 Oct
- MHMichael HowellStrongly bullish Expects a bond rally over the cycle as positioning is so negative and growth attenuates. “I think the pressures are building for a bond rally because everyone's so negative” ▶ 37:40 MICHAEL HOWELL | Always buy the dip in monetary … · 14 Oct
- PBPeter BerezinStrongly bullish Would get bullish on 10-year Treasuries at a 5.5% yield, locking in a ~3% real yield, and may go long in coming weeks. “5.5% is the level in the 10-year that I've been saying that would be high enough for me to get bullish on bonds” ▶ 14:50 No Relief Until 2027—Then Stocks Face Reset | Pe… · 13 Oct
- CDCameron DawsonStrongly bullish Expects yields to remain in a distinct long-term uptrend, with a higher cost of capital persisting and a 6% 10-year yield not far off. “we've very much moved into a world where there is a distinct uptrend in yields” ▶ 32:10 It's A New World Order For Markets | Cameron Daw… · 13 Oct
- LRLance RobertsStrongly bullish Expects bonds to perform well and yields to fall in the next real bear market, making bonds more valuable. “when we get into the next kind of real bear market correction, yields are going to fall during that corrective process” ▶ 41:55 Value Stocks Set To Outperform Tech Into The End… · 10 Oct
Rotation out of equities 3 voices3 bullish
Bullish
- ʎꞱʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹqBullish Expects bonds to rally if the selling in AI favorites becomes large enough. “if that move becomes large enough, bonds start to rally” Open the post You can see that the market is moving towards a … · 14 Oct
- THThomas HayesBullish Expects bonds to get a bid as pensions lock in yields and reallocate away from equities. “where bonds start to get a bid” ▶ 9:52 Great Rotation Happening Now: Why Chip Stocks Ar… · 13 Oct
- TCTavi CostaBullish Expects a rotation into bonds over the next two years as earnings growth normalizes. ▶ 21:00 Bond Market Reckoning: Why Your Money Is Next | … · 12 Oct
4 bearish8 bullish
Also asked
Valuation 3 voices← expensive · cheap →3 cheap
Cheap
- CDCameron DawsonCheap Expects bonds to be relatively cheaper versus equities, making risk-adjusted portfolios more attractive. “bonds are now a lot cheaper on a relative basis versus equities” ▶ 28:50 AI Stocks Crack, Yields Fall, Defensives Surge; … · 14 Oct
Strongly cheap
- WRWolf RichterStrongly cheap Expects bonds to be a valid, moderately attractive investment option for the first time in 20 years, and is shifting toward them. “bonds are now, a uh i think a valid investment option that there haven't been in 20 years” ▶ 1:05:05 When A.I. Spending Starts Slowing, Start Worryin… · 14 Oct
- TCTavi CostaStrongly cheap Says bonds are becoming more and more attractive relative to equities on a yield basis. ▶ 18:49 Bond Market Reckoning: Why Your Money Is Next | … · 12 Oct
Risk 1 voice← rising · easing →1 rising
High risk
- RWRobin WigglesworthHigh risk Warns maturity walls become dangerous only when they collide with a deep recession, which is hard to predict. “maturity walls in isolation are very rarely problematic. But if a maturity wall either...” ▶ 42:40 The Hater's Guide To Bonds With Rob Wigglesworth · 14 Oct
Mentions
44 this weekWed 7Tue 13 · 12Thu 15
Stories it travels in
i
The stories
- ○ a voice, on the left
- ◌ a voice raising half of these
- ● a subject, on the right, under its story
- ⌒ a line is a voice raising a subject — thicker, more items; colour is the story
The stories this entity travels in: on the right, each story with the subjects seen alongside it; on the left, the voices that raised them, and a line for every subject a voice raised, bundled by story. Tap a voice to light everything it raises, a subject for who raised it, a story for its own lines. The crumb goes back.
Who brings it up
- Bloomberg 10 mentions
- David Lin 8 mentions
- Walter Bloomberg 6 mentions
- Adam Taggart 4 mentions
- Dan Nathan 3 mentions
- Josh Linville 3 mentions
- Cameron Dawson 2 mentions
- Gary Bohm 2 mentions
See what your own voices say about bonds, every morning.
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