AW
Anna Wong
Analytical
Anna Wong focused on October CPI signals, highlighting a decline in inflation diffusion and noting that markets had returned to pre-CPI levels 12. She previewed price changes in video-streaming services, announced the Bloomberg Price Project, and shared an AI-capex dashboard 34. Wong also discussed AI hiring and humanities education, while arguing that reducing obesity could improve US fiscal sustainability by lowering Medicare and Medicaid costs 56.
On the record
last 90 days · 11 positionsTheir calls
✓ 1✗ 0 1 settled
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✓ Called it
Fed funds target range, upper bound higher by Sep 19 · Federal Reserve System
“Wong expects the Fed to hike next week, shifting up the short end.” — their words, paraphrased · said Sep 12 · settled Sep 17 the post ↗
It did: Fed funds target range, upper bound 4.00% on Sep 17.
The chart
Read from their words, checked against market data, approved by a person. Misses show like hits.
Federal Reserve System +0.5 · 2Labor productivity +2.0 · 1labor force participation +1.0 · 1unemployment rate +1.0 · 1CPI +1.0 · 1K-shape economy 0.0 · 1PCE diffusion metric -1.0 · 1Federal Open Market Committee -1.0 · 1
Latest positions
- AWAnna WongRising on CPI Expects video streaming services to push the CPI report higher tomorrow, with Disney+ price increases possibly affecting the October index too. “BPP is flagging video streaming services rising in tomorrow’s CPI report” Open the post My team is launching the Bloomberg Price Project… · 13 Oct
- AWAnna WongSteady on K-shape economy Expects the K-shape economy to keep inflation expectations anchored. Open the post I think the K-shape economy (a shape that descri… · 2 Oct
- AWAnna WongFalling on core PCE inflation Core PCE inflation momentum is on track for 2% and Warsh's diffusion metric fell in August, so she sees inflation cooling. “Core PCE inflation momentum…. On track for 2% past few months.” Open the post Core PCE inflation momentum…. On track for 2% pa… · 30 Sept
- AWAnna WongAgainst on Federal Open Market Committee Wong criticises the FOMC for groupthink and for failing to genuinely debate competing interpretations. “Group think is rearing its ugly head inside the Fed again.” Open the post Debate on cause of rise of the long term bond yi… · 23 Sept
- AWAnna WongFalling on PCE diffusion metric Wong expects the PCE diffusion metric to fall in August. “This is our estimation of the PCE diffusion metric that Warsh introduced during Jackson Hole. It should be falling in August.” Open the post This is our estimation of the PCE diffusion metr… · 16 Sept
- AWAnna WongStrongly hawkish on Federal Reserve System Wong expects the Fed to hike next week, shifting up the short end. “A perfect test to this hypothesis will be how the long end respond next week to the likely Fed hike.” Open the post A perfect test to this hypothesis will be how th… · 12 Sept
- AWAnna WongAgainst on Federal Reserve System Wong thinks it would be a big mistake for the Fed to seal a rate hike on the basis of a one-off wireless phone services distortion in inflation. “Hard to believe that this category is what seals the deal for a rate hike. A big mistake.” Open the post October 2017, then Fed chair Janet Yellen talked… · 12 Sept
- AWAnna WongRisk rising sharply on AI Wong says the risks to the sustainability of the AI boom she flagged three months ago are now materializing. “I have only seen more evidence that the risks I saw on the sustainability of the AI boom from three months ago are materializing.” Open the post I have only seen more evidence that the risks I … · 10 Sept
- AWAnna WongRising on unemployment rate A tiny increase in labor force participation will easily push the unemployment rate up in tomorrow's jobs report. “just a tiny increase in labor force participation will easily push unemployment rate up” Open the post For tomorrow’s jobs report, just a tiny increase… · 3 Sept
- AWAnna WongRising on labor force participation She expects labor force participation to increase, at least slightly, in tomorrow's report. “just a tiny increase in labor force participation” Open the post For tomorrow’s jobs report, just a tiny increase… · 3 Sept
- AWAnna WongSharply rising on Labor productivity Wong expects labor productivity to grow about 3% this year once revisions are in, similar to the 1990s. “Labor productivity also likely in fact -- post eventual revisions, like in the 1990s -- growing at about 3% this year.” Open the post We estimate that the investment boom, in fact i… · 3 Sept
Their output
7 this weekWed 7Tue 13 · 4Thu 15
Stories it travels in
i
The stories
- ○ a voice, on the left
- ◌ a voice raising half of these
- ● a subject, on the right, under its story
- ⌒ a line is a voice raising a subject — thicker, more items; colour is the story
The stories this entity travels in: on the right, each story with the subjects seen alongside it; on the left, the voices that raised them, and a line for every subject a voice raised, bundled by story. Tap a voice to light everything it raises, a subject for who raised it, a story for its own lines. The crumb goes back.
Who brings it up
- @profplum99 1 mention
What they talk about
- AI 2 items
- Bloomberg terminal 2 items
- CPI 2 items
- CPI inflation 1 item
- Bloomberg Price Project 1 item
- Troy Durie 1 item
- pce inflation 1 item
- Kalshi 1 item
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