Anna Wong

Latest positions

• AWAnna WongFalling on core PCE inflation Core PCE inflation momentum is on track for 2% and Warsh's diffusion metric fell in August, so she sees inflation cooling. “Core PCE inflation momentum…. On track for 2% past few months.” Open the post Core PCE inflation momentum…. On track for 2% pa… · 30 Sept
• AWAnna WongAgainst on Federal Open Market Committee Wong criticises the FOMC for groupthink and for failing to genuinely debate competing interpretations. “Group think is rearing its ugly head inside the Fed again.” Open the post Debate on cause of rise of the long term bond yi… · 23 Sept
• AWAnna WongFalling on PCE diffusion metric Wong expects the PCE diffusion metric to fall in August. “This is our estimation of the PCE diffusion metric that Warsh introduced during Jackson Hole. It should be falling in August.” Open the post This is our estimation of the PCE diffusion metr… · 16 Sept
• AWAnna WongStrongly hawkish on Federal Reserve System Wong expects the Fed to hike next week, shifting up the short end. “A perfect test to this hypothesis will be how the long end respond next week to the likely Fed hike.” Open the post A perfect test to this hypothesis will be how th… · 12 Sept
• AWAnna WongAgainst on Federal Reserve System Wong thinks it would be a big mistake for the Fed to seal a rate hike on the basis of a one-off wireless phone services distortion in inflation. “Hard to believe that this category is what seals the deal for a rate hike. A big mistake.” Open the post October 2017, then Fed chair Janet Yellen talked… · 12 Sept
• AWAnna WongRisk rising sharply on AI Wong says the risks to the sustainability of the AI boom she flagged three months ago are now materializing. “I have only seen more evidence that the risks I saw on the sustainability of the AI boom from three months ago are materializing.” Open the post I have only seen more evidence that the risks I … · 10 Sept
• AWAnna WongRising on unemployment rate A tiny increase in labor force participation will easily push the unemployment rate up in tomorrow's jobs report. “just a tiny increase in labor force participation will easily push unemployment rate up” Open the post For tomorrow’s jobs report, just a tiny increase… · 3 Sept
• AWAnna WongRising on labor force participation She expects labor force participation to increase, at least slightly, in tomorrow's report. “just a tiny increase in labor force participation” Open the post For tomorrow’s jobs report, just a tiny increase… · 3 Sept
• AWAnna WongSharply rising on Labor productivity Wong expects labor productivity to grow about 3% this year once revisions are in, similar to the 1990s. “Labor productivity also likely in fact -- post eventual revisions, like in the 1990s -- growing at about 3% this year.” Open the post We estimate that the investment boom, in fact i… · 3 Sept