Fed hike
Discussion centred on sharply reduced expectations for an October Fed hike: Kalshi pricing showed an 84% probability of no move versus 16% for a 25bp increase 1, while StoneX said hike odds had fallen from about 70% to 22% but still expected one hike in December 3. Longer-dated yields nevertheless surged amid resilient growth, AI investment and persistent inflation, with markets pricing roughly a 25% October-hike probability and a full 25bp increase by December 4. Warren Pies interpreted post-hike curve steepening as pricing both a two-hike mini-cycle and a higher neutral rate 2.
From the window to Oct 11, 05:30 ET — this window's take is still to be written.
Where the voices land
Nobody took a position this week.
Mentions
2 this weekStories it travels in
i
The stories
- ○ a voice, on the left
- ◌ a voice raising half of these
- ● a subject, on the right, under its story
- ⌒ a line is a voice raising a subject — thicker, more items; colour is the story
The stories this entity travels in: on the right, each story with the subjects seen alongside it; on the left, the voices that raised them, and a line for every subject a voice raised, bundled by story. Tap a voice to light everything it raises, a subject for who raised it, a story for its own lines. The crumb goes back.
Who brings it up
- Walter Bloomberg 1 mention
- Cameron Dawson 1 mention
- David Lin 1 mention
See what your own voices say about Fed hike, every morning.
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