S&P 500
Cautious
The S&P 500 was repeatedly described as near record highs but increasingly dependent on a narrow group of AI and mega-cap stocks, with breadth and equal-weight performance materially weaker 31016. Some commentators remain bullish, pointing to strong earnings, improving guidance and possible rotation into lagging stocks 1613, while others warn that high yields, slowing earnings growth, stretched valuations and thin leadership leave the index vulnerable 582831.
From the window to Oct 14, 05:30 ET — this window's take is still to be written.
Where the voices land
All voices 11 voices4 bearish1 range-bound6 bullish
Strongly bearish
- CDCameron DawsonStrongly bearish Expects the market to roll over and break down before earnings estimates do. “we think the market will break down before earnings break down” ▶ 36:15 AI Stocks Crack, Yields Fall, Defensives Surge; … · 14 Oct
- AMAlasdair MacleodStrongly bearish Expects the equity market bubble to implode, with the S&P 500 unable to hold its record levels. “you're gonna find that banks are up to their necks in loans to leveraged equity positions” ▶ 7:13 Alasdair Macleod: Gold Could Explode as Fiat Cur… · 14 Oct
- BIBen InkerStrongly bearish Expects the market to do about 4% worse per percent of market cap coming in via IPO, implying roughly 24% worse than normal with 6% supply. “the market does about 4% worse per percent of market cap that comes in, in an IPO” ▶ 0:00 The AI Bubble Will Pop from Equity Supply Says T… · 14 Oct
- MMMike McGloneStrongly bearish Expects the S&P 500 to break and drop 10-20%, calling it a matter of when, not if. “if we drop 20% in the stock market, which we will and stay down” ▶ 24:07 ‘Very Similar To 1987': Here's What Bonds Break … · 8 Oct
Range-bound
- THThomas HayesRange-bound Expects the indices to be more subdued than people expect, rising only modestly while the 493 outperforms. “the indices will be more subdued than people expect” ▶ 12:28 Great Rotation Happening Now: Why Chip Stocks Ar… · 13 Oct
Bullish
- CSCaleb SilverBullish Expects higher share prices as long as the earnings parade continues. “as long as that earnings parade continues, we will continue to see higher share prices” ▶ 41:48 Shaking The Leaves Off The Money Tree | Invest… · 13 Oct
- LRLance RobertsBullish Expects the cap-weighted S&P 500 to be flat to modestly higher into year-end, with the strongest gains in the equal-weighted index. “Out of the last 19 mid-term years, 16 were positive, 3 were negative.” ▶ 14:38 Value Stocks Set To Outperform Tech Into The End… · 10 Oct
Strongly bullish
- RBRobin BrooksStrongly bullish Expects the S&P 500 to be the big winner as oil falls and France muddles along. “Big winner is the S&P 500” Open the post My roadmap for how markets trade in the rest of … · 13 Oct
- TKThe Kobeissi LetterStrongly bullish Expects the S&P 500 to post another year of strong gains, based on the historical average Year 5 bull market return of +20.8%. “If history is any guide, the market is heading for another year of strong gains.” Open the post The US bull market is entering its 5th year. Si… · 12 Oct
- CLCharles LemonidesStrongly bullish Expects the bull market to continue, with a blow-off top still ahead and the market potentially running another two to five years. ▶ 1:58 Top Performing Value Investor Explains Why the M… · 12 Oct
- JSJames StanleyStrongly bullish Expects S&P 500 bullish continuation, with pullbacks seen as opportunistic buying. “I don't see anything on the chart right now that dissuades me from looking at bullish continuation. And I'm still looking at pullbacks as opportunistic.” ▶ 12:57 Treasury Yield Surge Leaves AI Bubble Waiting fo… · 9 Oct
Breadth and concentration 2 voices1 range-bound1 bullish
Range-bound
- THThomas HayesRange-bound Expects the indices to be more subdued than people expect, rising only modestly while the 493 outperforms. “the indices will be more subdued than people expect” ▶ 12:28 Great Rotation Happening Now: Why Chip Stocks Ar… · 13 Oct
Bullish
- LRLance RobertsBullish Expects the cap-weighted S&P 500 to be flat to modestly higher into year-end, with the strongest gains in the equal-weighted index. “Out of the last 19 mid-term years, 16 were positive, 3 were negative.” ▶ 14:38 Value Stocks Set To Outperform Tech Into The End… · 10 Oct
Earnings and profit growth 2 voices1 bearish1 bullish
Strongly bearish
- CDCameron DawsonStrongly bearish Expects the market to roll over and break down before earnings estimates do. “we think the market will break down before earnings break down” ▶ 36:15 AI Stocks Crack, Yields Fall, Defensives Surge; … · 14 Oct
Bullish
- CSCaleb SilverBullish Expects higher share prices as long as the earnings parade continues. “as long as that earnings parade continues, we will continue to see higher share prices” ▶ 41:48 Shaking The Leaves Off The Money Tree | Invest… · 13 Oct
Supply, leverage and volatility 2 voices2 bearish
Strongly bearish
- AMAlasdair MacleodStrongly bearish Expects the equity market bubble to implode, with the S&P 500 unable to hold its record levels. “you're gonna find that banks are up to their necks in loans to leveraged equity positions” ▶ 7:13 Alasdair Macleod: Gold Could Explode as Fiat Cur… · 14 Oct
- BIBen InkerStrongly bearish Expects the market to do about 4% worse per percent of market cap coming in via IPO, implying roughly 24% worse than normal with 6% supply. “the market does about 4% worse per percent of market cap that comes in, in an IPO” ▶ 0:00 The AI Bubble Will Pop from Equity Supply Says T… · 14 Oct
4 bearish1 range-bound6 bullish
Also asked
Valuation 3 voices← expensive · cheap →3 expensive
Strongly expensive
- MMMike McGloneStrongly expensive Says the stock market is the most expensive it has ever been in an environment like this and advises selling overvalued risk assets. “we've never seen an environment stock market this expensive in a shift like this” ▶ 37:07 ‘Very Similar To 1987': Here's What Bonds Break … · 8 Oct
Expensive
- TKThe Kobeissi LetterExpensive Expects the S&P 500 to be stretched/expensive, with a negative equity risk premium associated with stretched equity valuations. “a negative equity risk premium has been associated with strong risk appetite and stretched equity valuations” Open the post We are witnessing a historic shift. The annual … · 12 Oct
- CLCharles LemonidesExpensive Says the market is not overvalued but is much more fully valued than it once was, with the PE a little on the high side. “The market is not necessarily overvalued, but it is an awful lot more fully valued” ▶ 1:16 Top Performing Value Investor Explains Why the M… · 12 Oct
Risk 2 voices← rising · easing →2 rising
Very high risk
- MMMike McGloneVery high risk Warns there is not enough volatility or risk priced into the market around the midterm election. “there's not enough volatility priced in the market for that, not enough risk” ▶ 34:49 ‘Very Similar To 1987': Here's What Bonds Break … · 8 Oct
High risk
Mentions
40 this weekWed 7Tue 13 · 11Thu 15
Stories it travels in
i
The stories
- ○ a voice, on the left
- ◌ a voice raising half of these
- ● a subject, on the right, under its story
- ⌒ a line is a voice raising a subject — thicker, more items; colour is the story
The stories this entity travels in: on the right, each story with the subjects seen alongside it; on the left, the voices that raised them, and a line for every subject a voice raised, bundled by story. Tap a voice to light everything it raises, a subject for who raised it, a story for its own lines. The crumb goes back.
Who brings it up
- The Kobeissi Letter 13 mentions
- Max Wiethe 4 mentions
- David Lin 4 mentions
- Josh Linville 4 mentions
- Walter Bloomberg 3 mentions
- Dan Nathan 3 mentions
- Ben Carlson 2 mentions
- Jack Farley 2 mentions
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