Cautious
Jurrien Timmer focused on a four-year-old cyclical bull market, arguing that strong earnings have supported equities despite rising real rates and tightening financial conditions 910. He highlighted growing valuation pressure, weakening breadth and dependence on mega-cap stocks, while noting that earnings momentum and seasonality could still push the S&P 500 above 8,000 67810. He also examined historical-cycle analogies, warning that the current 1998–2000 internet-bubble comparison may soon fail and that peak earnings growth could limit what investors should pay 23.
On the record
last 90 days · 31 positionsTheir calls
None settled yet · 2 open
Still open
- ○ Open Bitcoin at or above $100,000 · Bitcoin “Expects Bitcoin to break higher after clearing $80k resistance, targeting $100k.” — their words, paraphrased · said Oct 2 · no deadline given, judged Apr 2, 2027 the post ↗ Now $82,446 (Oct 15).
- ○ Open Bitcoin at or above $300,000 by Dec 31 · Bitcoin “Timmer reads Bitcoin's power-law math as confirming a new cyclical bull market after the $60k hold, with a $300k target for 2029.” — their words, paraphrased · said Sep 25 · by Dec 31, 2029 the post ↗ Now $82,446 (Oct 15).
Read from their words, checked against market data, approved by a person. Misses show like hits.
Bitcoin +2.0 · 3US 0.0 · 3equities 0.0 · 2AI 0.0 · 2nominal Treasury +2.0 · 1Federal Reserve System +2.0 · 1commodities +2.0 · 1Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System +2.0 · 1
Latest positions
- JTJurrien TimmerRising on financial conditions Expects financial conditions to tighten from here, tempering earnings-driven price momentum. “a slight tightening in financial conditions now starting to temper the earnings-driven price momentum” Open the post It does appear that the investment clock has mov… · 13 Oct
- JTJurrien TimmerBullish on S&P 500 index Expects the S&P 500 index could be pushed above 8k by earnings momentum and a bullish seasonal window. “could be enough to push the S&P 500 index above 8k” Open the post It is now 4 years since the current cyclical bul… · 12 Oct
- JTJurrien TimmerStrongly cheap on equal-weighted index Sees the equal-weighted index as attractively valued at 17.3x forward earnings, not a bubble. “the equal-weighted index is an even more modest 17.3x. Whatever you want to call this cycle, it isn’t a bubble.” Open the post In terms of valuation, the forward cap-weighted … · 8 Oct
- JTJurrien TimmerImproving on Canada Expects Canada to remain a standout winner on earnings and payout growth. “Japan and Canada continue to be the standout winners.” Open the post In the US and around the world, earnings, and pa… · 8 Oct
- JTJurrien TimmerWorsening on US Expects US earnings and payout growth to be peaking, with the second derivative due to roll over. “earnings, and payout CAGRs appear to be peaking on a 5-year basis” Open the post In the US and around the world, earnings, and pa… · 8 Oct
- JTJurrien TimmerStable on US Sees the US economy as decent but hardly booming, not running hot. “Estimated real GDP growth rates for 2026-2028 are decent (2.1-2.2%) but hardly booming” Open the post One thing I find interesting is that there’s a w… · 7 Oct
- JTJurrien TimmerSteady on GDP Expects real GDP growth of about 2.1-2.2% for 2026-2028, below potential growth. “Estimated real GDP growth rates for 2026-2028 are decent (2.1-2.2%) but hardly booming, and they are not even at the real potential growth rate.” Open the post One thing I find interesting is that there’s a w… · 7 Oct
- JTJurrien TimmerStrongly hawkish on Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Expects the Fed to take back its 2025 rate cuts, i.e. hike, because the market is demanding it. “the Fed should not have eased in 2025 and now must take those rate cuts back” Open the post The Fed is in a bind because the markets are dem… · 7 Oct
- JTJurrien TimmerBullish on AI Expects demand for AI capital to keep rising, crowding out government borrowing. “the insatiable demand for AI capital crowds out the government” Open the post The so-called savings glut that suppressed bond … · 6 Oct
- JTJurrien TimmerStrongly bullish on Bitcoin Expects Bitcoin to break higher after clearing $80k resistance, targeting $100k. “we broke through resistance at $80k, targeting $100k” Open the post I continue to like both gold and Bitcoin, but es… · 2 Oct
- JTJurrien TimmerBearish on 60/40 Timmer thinks the classic 60/40 portfolio is obsolete, having been superseded by a 60/20/20 allocation since COVID, and sees no reason for that to change. “With the old 60/40 paradigm further in the rearview mirror of what used to work, the 60/20/20 has ruled the roost since the world changed after COVID” Open the post With the old 60/40 paradigm further in the rearv… · 1 Oct
- JTJurrien TimmerBullish on Magnificent Seven Timmer says the Mag 7 are doing the heavy lifting and are being treated as the survivors immune to rising rates, having outperformed the equal-weight S&P 500 by 18 points in 13 weeks. “The Mag 7 are doing the heavy lifting right now. Perhaps they are deemed the best survivors” Open the post The Mag 7 are doing the heavy lifting right now.… · 30 Sept
Their output
16 this weekWed 7Tue 13 · 4Thu 15
Stories it travels in
i
The stories
- ○ a voice, on the left
- ◌ a voice raising half of these
- ● a subject, on the right, under its story
- ⌒ a line is a voice raising a subject — thicker, more items; colour is the story
The stories this entity travels in: on the right, each story with the subjects seen alongside it; on the left, the voices that raised them, and a line for every subject a voice raised, bundled by story. Tap a voice to light everything it raises, a subject for who raised it, a story for its own lines. The crumb goes back.
Who brings it up
Nobody in this window.
What they talk about
- earnings 8 items
- bull market 3 items
- real rates 2 items
- Bloomberg 2 items
- P/E-multiple 2 items
- cost of capital 2 items
- earnings growth 1 item
- payout CAGRs 1 item
See what your own voices say about Jurrien Timmer, every morning.
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