Jurrien Timmer

Latest positions

• JTJurrien TimmerBullish on Magnificent Seven Timmer says the Mag 7 are doing the heavy lifting and are being treated as the survivors immune to rising rates, having outperformed the equal-weight S&P 500 by 18 points in 13 weeks. “The Mag 7 are doing the heavy lifting right now. Perhaps they are deemed the best survivors” Open the post The Mag 7 are doing the heavy lifting right now.… · 30 Sept
• JTJurrien TimmerStrongly bullish on Bitcoin Timmer reads Bitcoin's power-law math as confirming a new cyclical bull market after the $60k hold, with a $300k target for 2029. “Bitcoin’s power law math continues to suggest that a new cyclical bull market is underway after holding $60k, targeting $300k in 2029.” Open the post Bitcoin’s power law math continues to suggest th… · 25 Sept
• JTJurrien TimmerStrongly bullish on nominal Treasury Timmer argues the risk-reward for bond investors has improved markedly at a 5% nominal Treasury yield, with a large cushion against further yield rises. “for bond investors the risk-reward math has gotten considerably better. The 5% yield provides such a good cushion” Open the post Will 5.0% be the ceiling for the nominal Treasur… · 24 Sept
• JTJurrien TimmerDovish on Congressional Budget Office Timmer thinks the CBO's real potential growth projections are likely too low, especially given the AI boom. “Hopefully, the CBO projections are too low given the AI boom that is currently underway.” Open the post Below is a longer view of real yields vs real po… · 24 Sept
• JTJurrien TimmerBullish on semis At a forward P/E of 20x with booming earnings, semis are not in a valuation bubble despite the price analog to 1999-2000 internet stocks. “So, at forward P/E of 20x, there is no valuation bubble as far as I can see.” Open the post As disturbing as the near-perfect price analog i… · 23 Sept
• JTJurrien TimmerRisk rising on AI If the AI theme unravels, it will likely be because investors choke on the firehose of capital raises rather than on missing earnings. “If the AI theme unravels at some point, my guess is that it will be because investors are choking on the firehose of capital raises” Open the post As disturbing as the near-perfect price analog i… · 23 Sept
• JTJurrien TimmerRising on inflation data Six months of supply chain bottlenecks are pushing those pressures through the inflation data. “those pressures are working their way through the inflation data” Open the post The energy complex is struggling through an echo… · 22 Sept
• JTJurrien TimmerBullish on crude At $100/barrel, crude is probably not expensive enough to derail the US economy's resilient growth. “At $100/barrel, crude is probably not expensive enough to derail the US economy’s resilient growth” Open the post The energy complex is struggling through an echo… · 22 Sept
• JTJurrien TimmerImproving on US The US economy is showing resilient growth that even $100 crude likely won't derail. “crude is probably not expensive enough to derail the US economy’s resilient growth” Open the post The energy complex is struggling through an echo… · 22 Sept
• JTJurrien TimmerBearish on S&P 500 Timmer sees no catalyst for the bull market's next up leg, with the index churning without lasting progress since early June. “What’s the catalyst to generate the bull market’s next up leg? For now, I don’t see one.” Open the post The S&P 500 has not made any lasting progress si… · 22 Sept
• JTJurrien TimmerRisk rising sharply on energy Timmer says energy markets are once again in a state of severe stress, i.e. risk is elevated. “The energy markets are once again in a state of severe stress” Open the post Serious crosscurrents continue to blow over the … · 21 Sept
• JTJurrien TimmerStrongly bullish on Bitcoin Timmer sees a new 4-year cycle bull market underway for Bitcoin after it held $60k support and the BTC/gold Z-score turned positive. “I’m sensing that a new 4-year cycle bull market is underway.” Open the post Finally, Bitcoin has been on the move after hold… · 18 Sept