Sceptical
Luke Gromen focused on US fiscal sustainability, arguing that high real rates and fiscal dominance could destabilise Treasury markets, banking collateral and the dollar system 691417. He argued that inflation and negative real rates are among the few routes to reduce the debt burden, favouring gold, silver and some Bitcoin over directly shorting bonds 8. He also discussed gold’s relationship with sovereign bond yields, risks from cash-settled Bitcoin derivatives, veterans’ benefits and energy-related geopolitical developments 241213.
From the window to Oct 11, 05:30 ET — this window's take is still to be written.
On the record
last 90 days · 50 positionsUS -1.5 · 10gold +1.8 · 8inflation +1.2 · 5USD -0.3 · 4bonds -1.8 · 4Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 0.0 · 3USTs -1.3 · 3Federal Reserve System -1.3 · 3
Latest positions
- LGLuke GromenStrongly bullish on defense industrial base Expects a 10-20 year generational run of reshoring the US defense industrial base. “what virtually everyone agrees is a 10-20 year generational run of reshoring the US defense industrial base” Open the post Why would insiders at Anduril be selling ANY sto… · 14 Oct
- LGLuke GromenVery high risk on consumer debt Sees the $10T of consumer debt held by under-49s as a major risk, since AI could disintermediate their incomes and 10% losses would equal ~40% of US bank equity capital. “If AI does what its proponents say it will, 10% losses on that $10T = $1T = ~40% of total equity capital of the US banking industry” Open the post Consumers <49 years old owe $10T in consumer … · 14 Oct
- LGLuke GromenVery high risk on AI Warns that AI, if it delivers as proponents claim, would disintermediate the incomes of under-49s and threaten large losses on consumer debt. Open the post Consumers <49 years old owe $10T in consumer … · 14 Oct
- LGLuke GromenVery high risk on banking industry Sees the US banking industry as exposed to large losses on consumer debt, with a 10% loss rate equalling ~40% of its equity capital. “10% losses on that $10T = $1T = ~40% of total equity capital of the US banking industry (~$2.6T)” Open the post Consumers <49 years old owe $10T in consumer … · 14 Oct
- LGLuke GromenStrongly bullish on gold Expects gold to reach $22,000/oz, the level at which China's YTD gold imports would balance its YTD trade surplus. “China's YTD gold imports would balance its YTD trade surplus at $22,000/oz.” Open the post Nonmonetary gold + Precious metals exports are t… · 12 Oct
- LGLuke GromenBullish on skilled trades Expects new skilled trades businesses to thrive by undercutting prices private equity has raised. “Already seeing this w/my sons & their friends in skilled trades & skilled service biz's” Open the post Private equity is creating a price umbrella for … · 11 Oct
- LGLuke GromenBullish on skilled service Expects new skilled service businesses to thrive by undercutting prices private equity has raised. “Already seeing this w/my sons & their friends in skilled trades & skilled service biz's” Open the post Private equity is creating a price umbrella for … · 11 Oct
- LGLuke GromenBullish on gold miner Expects the gold/oil ratio to rise, which is bullish for gold miner profitability. “Bullish for gold/oil ratio (which is a proxy for gold miner profitability.)” Open the post Trump reportedly buying Russian diesel per CNBC.… · 9 Oct
- LGLuke GromenSharply rising on deficit Expects an austerity-driven US recession to push the US deficit to 17-25% of GDP, larger than WW2. “austerity-driven US recession would drive US deficit to (13-17%) + (4-7%) = 17-25% of GDP, or a bigger deficit than WW2” Open the post ONE OF BIGGEST VARIANT PERCEPTION IN MARKETS IMO… · 8 Oct
- LGLuke GromenSharply worsening on US Expects an austerity-driven US recession to trigger debt collapse, banking system collapse and hyperinflation versus gold. “if we do austerity, we trigger not just recession, but debt collapse, banking system collapse, & risk hyperinflation v. gold” Open the post ONE OF BIGGEST VARIANT PERCEPTION IN MARKETS IMO… · 8 Oct
- LGLuke GromenBullish on USD Expects the USD to rise on US austerity. “the USD would rise on US austerity” Open the post ONE OF BIGGEST VARIANT PERCEPTION IN MARKETS IMO… · 8 Oct
- LGLuke GromenStrongly bearish on USTs Expects forced selling of USTs by foreigners, banks, pensions and hedge funds as a stronger USD drives weaker global growth. “foreigners, US banks, US pensions, & US hedge funds would be FORCED by stronger USD to sell USTs” Open the post ONE OF BIGGEST VARIANT PERCEPTION IN MARKETS IMO… · 8 Oct
Their output
22 this weekWed 7Tue 13 · 5Thu 15
Stories it travels in
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The stories
- ○ a voice, on the left
- ◌ a voice raising half of these
- ● a subject, on the right, under its story
- ⌒ a line is a voice raising a subject — thicker, more items; colour is the story
The stories this entity travels in: on the right, each story with the subjects seen alongside it; on the left, the voices that raised them, and a line for every subject a voice raised, bundled by story. Tap a voice to light everything it raises, a subject for who raised it, a story for its own lines. The crumb goes back.
Who brings it up
- Javier Blas 2 mentions
- Rory Johnston 2 mentions
- Michael Every 2 mentions
- Jeffrey Currie ++ 1 mention
- Gary Bohm 1 mention
- Chris Marcus 1 mention
See what your own voices say about Luke Gromen, every morning.
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