Luke Gromen

September 2026 · 123 items

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Voice · person

September 2026 · spoke in 123 items · 8 topics

Sep 1 → Oct 1, 05:30 ET · Last update Oct 9, 05:47 ET

at FFTT LLC · founder

𝕏 site ▶ youtube

September 2026Live view →

Sceptical

Luke Gromen focused chiefly on US fiscal dominance, sovereign bonds, debt sustainability and the implications for rates, the dollar, gold and Bitcoin. He argued that higher rates can worsen Treasury supply, deficits and inflation dynamics, while long-term Treasuries may offer nominal but not real value until debt is devalued through the dollar ²⁵. He also discussed reshoring, AI-driven productivity, geopolitics, war and de-dollarization as forces interacting with the sovereign-debt problem ⁴⁶⁵⁸⁵³.

On the record

last 30 days · 50 positions

US -1.3 · 6 gold +1.6 · 5 inflation +1.0 · 4 Federal Reserve System -1.3 · 3 bonds -1.7 · 3 Electrical infrastructure +2.0 · 2 oil +1.0 · 2 LT USTs -0.5 · 2

Latest positions

LGLuke GromenWorsening on US The US cannot catch up on electricity-driven growth without the bond market being crushed in real terms, so the consensus view of a painless catch-up is wrong. “bond investor consensus still thinks the US can catch up without the bond market being crushed in real terms, but that’s not possible” Open the post Few metrics are a better read on real economic g… · 30 Sept
LGLuke GromenBearish on Federal Reserve System Gromen argues the bond market's expectation that Fed rate hikes will calm the long end is wrong and will keep being wrong. “They were so CERTAIN that Fed rate hikes would calm the long end, but they were wrong...and they will continue to be wrong” Open the post The bond mafia has 45 years of experience workin… · 30 Sept
LGLuke GromenRisk rising sharply on sovereign debt The risk of a yield gamma event in western sovereign debt keeps rising, and rate hikes, USD sanctions or war would only worsen it. “The risk of a UST yield and western sovereign debt yield "gamma event" continues to rise” Open the post The risk of a UST yield and western sovereign de… · 28 Sept
LGLuke GromenRisk rising sharply on LT USTs The risk of a long-term UST yield gamma event continues to rise. “The risk of a UST yield and western sovereign debt yield "gamma event" continues to rise” Open the post The risk of a UST yield and western sovereign de… · 28 Sept
LGLuke GromenRisk rising sharply on U.S. Department of the Treasury The risk of a Treasury yield gamma event continues to rise and more rate hikes, sanctions or war only make it worse. “The risk of a UST yield and western sovereign debt yield "gamma event" continues to rise” Open the post The risk of a UST yield and western sovereign de… · 28 Sept
LGLuke GromenStrongly bearish on bond Gromen argues AI's capital demands are driving a bond singularity — a collapse in the bond market — before any AI singularity arrives. “AI is driving a bond singularity before it drives an AI singularity.” Open the post September 1, 2026 edition of FFTT: "AI is drivin… · 25 Sept
LGLuke GromenStrongly bearish on bonds Gromen expects bonds to perform terribly in real terms, as they did for decades after 1896. “The ensuing several decades were TERRIBLE for bonds in real terms” Open the post Just read "1873" by Liaquat Ahamed The US bondh… · 24 Sept
LGLuke GromenRisk rising sharply on UST mkts Cutting anything but interest rates would trigger a USD spike and a NIIP unwind that crashes the UST market. “the resulting USD spike would trigger a NIIP unwind that crashed UST mkts” Open the post Look at replies to my OP at bottom Consensus do… · 24 Sept
LGLuke GromenSharply worsening on US The US faces a sovereign debt spiral, with austerity being fatal. “Any austerity would be a root canal with a shotgun: Effective but fatal.” Open the post Look at replies to my OP at bottom Consensus do… · 24 Sept
LGLuke GromenStrongly bullish on gold Gromen expects gold to surge sharply ("moon") as part of his proposed policy sequence. “let gold moon, instruct Warsh to revalue official gold to the new much higher price” Open the post Cut rates to zero, cut interest on bank reserves… · 23 Sept
LGLuke GromenFor on T-bills Gromen advocates issuing 0% T-bills to buy back debt. “buy back some of the debt with 0% T-Bills” Open the post Cut rates to zero, cut interest on bank reserves… · 23 Sept
LGLuke GromenHawkish on Treasury General Account Gromen expects the TGA to be credited with multiple trillions from a gold revaluation. “depositing multiple trillions into the TGA” Open the post Cut rates to zero, cut interest on bank reserves… · 23 Sept

Their output

123 in September 2026

Mon 31Wed 16 · 8Thu 1

Stories it travels in

The stories

○ a voice, on the left
◌ a voice raising half of these
● a subject, on the right, under its story
⌒ a line is a voice raising a subject — thicker, more items; colour is the story

The stories this entity travels in: on the right, each story with the subjects seen alongside it; on the left, the voices that raised them, and a line for every subject a voice raised, bundled by story. Tap a voice to light everything it raises, a subject for who raised it, a story for its own lines. The crumb goes back.

Who brings it up