Sceptical
Tracy Shuchart mainly shared developments in oil, fuel and shipping markets amid conflict-related disruption, including Hormuz attacks, Gulf production shut-ins, tanker costs and possible Russian diesel supplies 134714. They also argued for a US national diesel reserve and against treating the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as a political tool 313234. Other posts covered bond-market stress, defensive investor positioning, data-center power demand and nuclear or gas infrastructure 58101527.
From the window to Oct 10, 05:30 ET โ this window's take is still to be written.
On the record
last 90 days ยท 22 positionsUS -0.5 ยท 6diesel -0.7 ยท 3Refining -1.0 ยท 2energy +2.0 ยท 1fuel +2.0 ยท 1product market +1.0 ยท 1AGB +1.0 ยท 1oil refining -1.0 ยท 1
Latest positions
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Tracy Shuchart (๐๐ฝ๐พ )Strongly against on SPR
Opposes using the SPR as a piggy bank or political lever, arguing that is what caused the current situation.
โThe SPR is not a piggy bank nor should be used as a political lever.โ
Open the post The SPR is not a piggy bank nor should be used aโฆ ยท 4 Oct
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Tracy Shuchart (๐๐ฝ๐พ )Strongly for on US
Supports building a national diesel reserve, funded by exchanging SPR crude for diesel, to give the US its own tool for the next price spike.
โBuilding a national diesel reserve would give the US a tool of its own the next time prices spike.โ
Open the post A case for a national diesel reserve
The adminiโฆ ยท 4 Oct
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Tracy Shuchart (๐๐ฝ๐พ )Against on diesel
Opposes a ban on diesel exports, arguing it would back up barrels in Gulf Coast storage and force refiners to cut runs.
โAn export ban was always going to be difficult to justify.โ
Open the post A case for a national diesel reserve
The adminiโฆ ยท 4 Oct
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Tracy Shuchart (๐๐ฝ๐พ )Bearish on Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve
Expects the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve to be inadequate, covering only about six and a half hours of US distillate demand and not lasting long in a serious winter disruption.
โthe Northeast reserve would not last long in a serious winter supply disruptionโ
Open the post A case for a national diesel reserve
The adminiโฆ ยท 4 Oct
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Tracy Shuchart (๐๐ฝ๐พ )Bearish on Refining
Expects refining capacity to keep leaving both coasts, with the Northeast having very little refining left and California losing capacity.
โThat limitation is getting harder to ignore as refining capacity leaves both coasts.โ
Open the post A case for a national diesel reserve
The adminiโฆ ยท 4 Oct
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Tracy Shuchart (๐๐ฝ๐พ )Strongly bullish on fuel
Expects product markets to tighten sharply, calling this possibly the worst time ever for products given converging supply disruptions.
โThis may be the worst time ever for product markets between US maintenence, throttled Hormuz crossings, the Russian diesel export ban extended, and now China implementing a fuel export ban today.โ
Open the post I forewarned that the US refineries were not goiโฆ ยท 1 Oct
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Tracy Shuchart (๐๐ฝ๐พ )Risk rising on Hormuz
Throttled Hormuz crossings are adding to the strain on product markets.
โthrottled Hormuz crossingsโ
Open the post I forewarned that the US refineries were not goiโฆ ยท 1 Oct
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Tracy Shuchart (๐๐ฝ๐พ )Against on US
The US will not enact diesel export restrictions, so the media should drop the topic.
โThe US is not going to enact diesel exports. MSM needs to stop beating a dead horse.โ
Open the post The US is not going to enact diesel exports. MSMโฆ ยท 30 Sept
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Tracy Shuchart (๐๐ฝ๐พ ) ยท on the show, speaker unnamedRisk rising sharply on Black Sea
Vysotskyi sees no positive signs on a Black Sea ceasefire and thinks a solution is unlikely in the coming months, keeping the risk of disruption elevated.
โitโs hard to imagine any possible solutions in the nearest months on this issueโ
Open the post Ukraine Agri Chief Sees No Positive Signs on Blaโฆ ยท 28 Sept
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Tracy Shuchart (๐๐ฝ๐พ ) ยท on the show, speaker unnamedStrongly against on Russia
Vysotskyi says Russia has rejected all of Ukraine's partners' proposals, showing no willingness to reach a deal.
โRussia โrejected all of the proposals of our partners so farโโ
Open the post Ukraine Agri Chief Sees No Positive Signs on Blaโฆ ยท 28 Sept
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Tracy Shuchart (๐๐ฝ๐พ )Against on US
She opposes a national decision on diesel, arguing it should be left to individual companies and the states.
โthe US does not have a national oil company, a decision like this "should" be up to individual companies and within the states they operateโ
Open the post This is from Politico, so I have my reservationsโฆ ยท 25 Sept
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Tracy Shuchart (๐๐ฝ๐พ )Worsening on US
The US was insulated from the energy crunch, but that protection is now gone and the crunch has arrived.
โthe US has been fairly insulated from the energy crunch, but it was coming. Well, it is here.โ
Open the post If any of you have been listening to the Morningโฆ ยท 19 Sept
Their output
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The stories
- โ a voice, on the left
- โ a voice raising half of these
- โ a subject, on the right, under its story
- โ a line is a voice raising a subject โ thicker, more items; colour is the story
The stories this entity travels in: on the right, each story with the subjects seen alongside it; on the left, the voices that raised them, and a line for every subject a voice raised, bundled by story. Tap a voice to light everything it raises, a subject for who raised it, a story for its own lines. The crumb goes back.
Who brings it up
- Blake Morrow 5 mentions
- Amena Bakr 1 mention
What they talk about
- oil 15 items
- US 14 items
- Bloomberg 13 items
- Iran 8 items
- crude 6 items
- Donald J. Trump 6 items
- Russia 6 items
- Middle East 5 items
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