Warren Pies focused on post-Fed-hike market pricing, arguing that a bear-steepening yield curve signalled both a two-hike mini-cycle and a higher neutral rate 1. They also examined AI’s exposure to higher rates through venture funding and data-centre demand 4, AI-related labour-market disruption 5, and semiconductor and hyperscaler strength 3. Pies additionally linked constrained Boeing 200 availability to higher rents 2 and said dovish Fed communication could control longer-term yields 6.
From the window to Oct 8, 05:30 ET — this window's take is still to be written.
On the record
last 90 days · 10 positionsLatest positions
- WPWarren PiesRising on residual seasonality Expects residual seasonality to make early-2027 data come in hot. “Given residual seasonality, base case has to be hot early-27 data.” Open the post More hawkish than I would have guessed his dot t… · 8 Oct
- WPWarren PiesHawkish on Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Expects the Fed to deliver a two-hike "mini-cycle" rather than a single hike. “this is the market pricing in: 1) A two-hike "mini-cycle" AND 2) A higher neutral rate” Open the post IMO, the most interesting macro development post… · 7 Oct
- WPWarren PiesStrongly bullish on AI Expects AI's impact on the labor market to intensify next year and spread into other industries. “This dynamic will most likely intensify next year and expand into other industries.” Open the post It is becoming obvious that AI is impacting the … · 3 Oct
- WPWarren PiesBearish on finance Notes finance industry employment has fallen 246k since mid-2025 alongside tech, and expects the AI-driven labor hit to intensify. “Finance + Tech industries -246k jobs.” Open the post It is becoming obvious that AI is impacting the … · 3 Oct
- WPWarren PiesBearish on tech Notes tech industry employment has fallen 246k since mid-2025 alongside finance, and expects the AI-driven labor hit to intensify. “Finance + Tech industries -246k jobs.” Open the post It is becoming obvious that AI is impacting the … · 3 Oct
- WPWarren PiesRisk easing on Oracle Corporation Pies thinks the market is too nervous about Oracle's Jupiter force majeure declaration, implying the risk is overblown. “Too much nervousness around Oracle's Jupiter force majeure declaration.” Open the post Too much nervousness around Oracle's Jupiter for… · 24 Sept
- WPWarren PiesBullish on datacenter Pies sees no broad expansion of delays or cancellations across US datacenter projects, so the sector's buildout outlook is intact. “Looking at every datacenter project in the country, there is no evidence that delays/cancellations are expanding broadly.” Open the post Too much nervousness around Oracle's Jupiter for… · 24 Sept
- WPWarren PiesStrongly hawkish on Federal Reserve System Pies expects the Fed to deliver one more rate hike. “Warren says one more hike” Open the post RT @Wild_Randomness: RECAP 3. @WarrenPies lates… · 21 Sept
- WPWarren PiesStrongly hawkish on Federal Reserve System The Fed meeting has cleared the path for equities to move higher, implying a dovish policy backdrop. “the Fed meeting likely cleared the path for equities to move higher now” Open the post Yesterday, I joined @michaelsantoli and @Melissa… · 19 Sept
- WPWarren PiesRising on CPI CPI is running above the Waller line, implying inflation is high enough to force a hike. “CPI above the Waller line...Hike is coming.” Open the post CPI above the Waller line...Hike is coming. · 11 Sept
Their output
3 this weekStories it travels in
i
The stories
- ○ a voice, on the left
- ◌ a voice raising half of these
- ● a subject, on the right, under its story
- ⌒ a line is a voice raising a subject — thicker, more items; colour is the story
The stories this entity travels in: on the right, each story with the subjects seen alongside it; on the left, the voices that raised them, and a line for every subject a voice raised, bundled by story. Tap a voice to light everything it raises, a subject for who raised it, a story for its own lines. The crumb goes back.
Who brings it up
Nobody in this window.
What they talk about
- annualized growth rate 1 item
- @NickTimiraos 1 item
- non-GAAP metrics 1 item
- Gavin Baker 1 item
- residual seasonality 1 item
- two-hike adjustment 1 item
- ARR 1 item
- GPU rents 1 item
See what your own voices say about Warren Pies, every morning.
Start a desk