Robin Brooks
Robin Brooks focused on three threads: Brazil’s election and the BRL, Euro zone bond stress and ECB choices, and the global rates/sanctions backdrop. He argued right‑wing candidates are systematically undercounted in polls and a stronger‑than‑expected Bolsonaro would be bullish for the Real, with Brooks flagging 4.80 near‑term versus a longer‑stated 4.50 fair value 13557. He warned Euro zone yields are fracturing around high‑debt members, with France central, and expects ECB intervention that entrenches bad incentives and fuels Northern populism 6910111415161718. On the US, he said the Fed is trying to avoid an October hike amid a curve steepening and safe‑haven demand for Treasuries, while dismissing yen‑carry explanations for the yield spike 4192228313240. He also argued sanctions/blockade are biting Iran severely and reshaping oil geopolitics, with broader implications for Europe and Russia 24758.
From the window to Oct 5, 05:30 ET — this window's take is still to be written.
On the record
last 90 days · 50 positionsTheir calls
✓ 1✗ 0 1 settled · 4 still open
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✓ Called it
Fed funds target range, upper bound higher by Sep 18 · Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
“Brooks expects the Fed to hike next week, saying the CPI number boxes it in.” — their words, paraphrased · said Sep 11 · settled Sep 17 the post ↗
It did: Fed funds target range, upper bound 4.00% on Sep 17.
The chart
Still open
- ○ Open Fed funds target range, upper bound unchanged by Oct 31 · Federal Reserve System “Brooks says the Fed cannot validate the hikes markets price and an October hike is off the table, leaving the debasement trade in charge.” — their words, paraphrased · said Sep 30 · by Oct 31, 2026 the post ↗ Now 4.00% (Oct 14).
- ○ Open US dollar / Brazilian real at or below 4.8000 · $/BRL “Expects $/BRL to fall toward a near-term target of 4.80.” — their words, paraphrased · said Oct 4 · no deadline given, judged Apr 4, 2027 the post ↗ Now 5.0479 (Oct 15).
- ○ Open US dollar / Brazilian real at or below 4.5000 · $/BRL “Expects $/BRL to fall to 4.80 and then converge quickly to his fair value of 4.50.” — their words, paraphrased · said Oct 5 · no deadline given, judged Apr 5, 2027 the post ↗ Now 5.0479 (Oct 15).
- ○ Open Fed funds target range, upper bound lower by Dec 31 · Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System “Expects the Fed to hold for now, with no hikes as aggressive as priced and cuts not arriving until 2027.” — their words, paraphrased · said Oct 11 · by Dec 31, 2027 the post ↗ Now 4.00% (Oct 14).
Read from their words, checked against market data, approved by a person. Misses show like hits.
Latest positions
- RBRobin BrooksSharply rising on inflation Expects inflation to become entrenched, with the breadth of above-2% price increases exceeding earlier 2026 highs. “Yesterday's CPI gives ammunition to those on the FOMC who worry about inflation getting entrenched.” Open the post Yesterday's CPI gives ammunition to those on the… · 15 Oct
- RBRobin BrooksOn hold on Federal Open Market Committee Expects the FOMC to hold rates, with hawkish dissents rather than a hike. “If there's no hike, there'll be hawkish dissents...” Open the post Yesterday's CPI gives ammunition to those on the… · 15 Oct
- RBRobin BrooksSharply rising on trade surplus Expects China's trade surplus to keep climbing sharply. “China's trade surplus is going vertical.” Open the post China's trade surplus is going vertical. The rea… · 15 Oct
- RBRobin BrooksSharply improving on China Expects China's exports to keep surging and China to double down on exporting while cutting dependence on the US. “China is doubling down on exports; (ii) it's furiously trying to cut its dependence on the US” Open the post China's trade surplus is going vertical. The rea… · 15 Oct
- RBRobin BrooksSharply improving on China Expects China to double down on export-led growth rather than step back, with exports surging. “To think China will step back from its export-led growth model is naive. It won't. In fact, China is doing the opposite. It's doubling down.” Open the post To think China will step back from its export-le… · 15 Oct
- RBRobin BrooksSharply improving on EM Expects Chinese exports into emerging markets to keep surging. “China's exports to every possible EM imaginable are going through the roof.” Open the post To think China will step back from its export-le… · 15 Oct
- RBRobin BrooksStrongly bearish on global bond markets Expects the global bond sell-off to reignite, with global bond markets catching on fire again. “it looked like the global bond sell-off was calming, but now bond markets are catching on fire again” Open the post The optics of today's September core CPI reading… · 14 Oct
- RBRobin BrooksStrongly bearish on bond markets Expects bond markets to sell off again, catching on fire after the hot core CPI print. “now bond markets are catching on fire again” Open the post The optics of today's September core CPI reading… · 14 Oct
- RBRobin BrooksSharply rising on core CPI Expects the September core CPI reading to keep inflation pressure hot, calling the optics bad. “The optics of today's September core CPI reading out of the US are bad” Open the post The optics of today's September core CPI reading… · 14 Oct
- RBRobin BrooksStrongly hawkish on Federal Reserve System Expects an October Fed hike is back on the table. “today's reading puts an October hike back on the table” Open the post Not a good CPI number. Last month it was wireles… · 14 Oct
- RBRobin BrooksSharply rising on core inflation Expects core inflation to be driven higher, with today's reading removing the excuse for a pause. “Last month it was wireless services that spiked core inflation and were a reasonable excuse for the Fed to pause later this month. But today's reading puts an October hike back on the table.” Open the post Not a good CPI number. Last month it was wireles… · 14 Oct
- RBRobin BrooksSharply rising on CPI Expects the CPI reading to be bad, with inflation pressure building. “Not a good CPI number.” Open the post Not a good CPI number. Last month it was wireles… · 14 Oct
Their output
49 this weekStories it travels in
i
The stories
- ○ a voice, on the left
- ◌ a voice raising half of these
- ● a subject, on the right, under its story
- ⌒ a line is a voice raising a subject — thicker, more items; colour is the story
The stories this entity travels in: on the right, each story with the subjects seen alongside it; on the left, the voices that raised them, and a line for every subject a voice raised, bundled by story. Tap a voice to light everything it raises, a subject for who raised it, a story for its own lines. The crumb goes back.
See what your own voices say about Robin Brooks, every morning.
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