Brad Setser
Brad Setser focused on China’s exchange rate, export surge and external imbalances, arguing that PBOC management of the RMB affects export growth and the current-account surplus 27. He also examined the EU’s response to surging Chinese vehicle and manufactured-goods imports, including quotas, safeguards and trade negotiations 56131730. Other points covered China’s fiscal capacity and domestic demand, East Asian surplus recycling, US-China trade data, and tariff-related distortions in gold and pharmaceutical flows 31018192829.
From the window to Oct 14, 05:30 ET — this window's take is still to be written.
On the record
last 90 days · 50 positionsTheir calls
✓ 1✗ 0 1 settled
-
✓ Called it
US dollar / Japanese yen at or above 155.00 · yen
“Setser takes pleasure in the yen breaking 155 and had argued it was more likely to trade through 155 than 165.” — their words, paraphrased · said Sep 7 · settled Sep 15 the post ↗
It did: US dollar / Japanese yen 155.27 on Sep 15.
The chart
Read from their words, checked against market data, approved by a person. Misses show like hits.
Latest positions
- BSBrad SetserRising on current account surplus Expects a weaker real CNY to increase China's current account surplus. “a weaker inflation adjusted (real) CNY predictably raises its exports and increases its current account surplus” Open the post Spiky is one way to say it. PBoC also trying to… · 13 Oct
- BSBrad SetserFor on People's Bank of China Affirms that the PBOC heavily manages the RMB, endorsing the view that such management is real and consequential. “the PBOC manages the RMB heavily” Open the post A new blog, which makes two points that should b… · 13 Oct
- BSBrad SetserFor on China Supports China borrowing more, used more efficiently, to support consumption. “China needs more borrowing (used more efficiently) to support consumption” Open the post I agree with Mr. Batson; China needs more borrow… · 13 Oct
- BSBrad SetserRising on nominal GDP growth Expects more borrowing to strengthen nominal GDP growth in China. “China needs more borrowing (used more efficiently) to support consumption and strengthen nominal GDP growth” Open the post I agree with Mr. Batson; China needs more borrow… · 13 Oct
- BSBrad SetserCheap on central government Sees the central government as having ample fiscal capacity — low rates, debt/GDP under 35%, substantial financial assets. “the obvious fiscal space (low rate, debt to GDP under 35%, substantial financial assets) of the central government” Open the post One of my more controversial views -- consolidat… · 11 Oct
- BSBrad SetserSharply rising on current account surplus Expects Korea's current account surplus to reach close to $500 billion this year. “Korea is heading for a current account surplus of close to $500 billion this year” Open the post Korea is heading for a current account surplus o… · 8 Oct
- BSBrad SetserRising on imports Expects China's imports to rise, which is needed to rebalance its global trade. “Without rising imports, balance has to come from slower export growth” Open the post One reason why exchange rate adjustment is actua… · 8 Oct
- BSBrad SetserRising on real appreciation Expects a bigger real appreciation of the renminbi would be needed to bring China's surplus down to the IMF's assessed norm. “implies a bigger real appreciation would be needed to bring the surplus down to the 0.5 to 1.0% IMF assessed norm” Open the post China's criticism shows that the IMF's assessmen… · 8 Oct
- BSBrad SetserFor on European Union Supports the EU preparing safeguards cases to address the second China shock, given clear import surges disrupting parts of the European economy. “EU preparing a series of safeguards cases to address the second China shock. Makes sense” Open the post EU preparing a series of safeguards cases to add… · 7 Oct
- BSBrad SetserStrongly for on wind industry Europe's wind industry should be protected from disappearing, as it is too strategic amid the green transition. “Europe's wind industry should not be allowed to disappear like Europe's solar industry; it is too strategic” Open the post Fair Europe's wind industry should not be allow… · 6 Oct
- BSBrad SetserStrongly bullish on RMB Expects the RMB to appreciate significantly, since broad rebalancing won't happen without exchange rate adjustment. “broad rebalancing won't happen without exchange rate adjustment” Open the post France &Germany recognize that their trade defen… · 5 Oct
- BSBrad SetserSteady on imports Sees no strong link now between Chinese demand growth and imports, so Chinese imports won't rise with demand growth. “there isn't a strong link now between Chinese demand growth and imports” Open the post France &Germany recognize that their trade defen… · 5 Oct
Their output
30 this weekStories it travels in
i
The stories
- ○ a voice, on the left
- ◌ a voice raising half of these
- ● a subject, on the right, under its story
- ⌒ a line is a voice raising a subject — thicker, more items; colour is the story
The stories this entity travels in: on the right, each story with the subjects seen alongside it; on the left, the voices that raised them, and a line for every subject a voice raised, bundled by story. Tap a voice to light everything it raises, a subject for who raised it, a story for its own lines. The crumb goes back.
Who brings it up
Nobody in this window.
What they talk about
- China 19 items · disputed
- People's Bank of China 5 items
- current account surplus 4 items
- EU 4 items
- Korea 4 items
- trade surplus 4 items
- Taiwan 4 items
- CNY 4 items
See what your own voices say about Brad Setser, every morning.
Start a desk