Brad Setser

Latest positions

• BSBrad SetserFor on EU Europe should take smart action now to protect its large home market from Chinese auto imports. “That leaves a big market for European producers if Europe takes smart action now” Open the post Dangerous to disagree with an auto CEO -- But C… · 30 Sept
• BSBrad SetserFalling on GDP The widening goods trade deficit implies a drag on GDP of over a percentage point, with a huge annualized q/q change. “$30b annualized is an increase over a pp of GDP, the q/q change annualized will be huge” Open the post Just want to note that the seasonally adjusted m… · 30 Sept
• BSBrad SetserStrongly for on strategic European sectors Setser recommends broad safeguards against Chinese import surges in strategic European sectors. “Broad safeguards against Chinese import surges in strategic European sectors, including autos” Open the post Not a European think tanker, but would suggest: … · 28 Sept
• BSBrad SetserStrongly for on autos Setser wants Chinese import surges in autos covered by European safeguards. “Broad safeguards against Chinese import surges in strategic European sectors, including autos” Open the post Not a European think tanker, but would suggest: … · 28 Sept
• BSBrad SetserStrongly for on EU Setser argues the EU or euro area should have its own capacity to judge currency undervaluation, superseding the US Treasury report. “An EU (or euro area) capacity to render judgement on currency undervaluation -- one that trumps (ha) the current Treasury report” Open the post Not a European think tanker, but would suggest: … · 28 Sept
• BSBrad SetserStrongly for on European currency Setser proposes a European currency 301 or macroeconomic imbalance safeguard mechanism. “A European currency 301 or macroeconomic imbalance safeguards (on a slower fuse)” Open the post Not a European think tanker, but would suggest: … · 28 Sept
• BSBrad SetserAgainst on U.S. Treasury Setser wants a European judgement on currency undervaluation to override the current Treasury report. “one that trumps (ha) the current Treasury report” Open the post Not a European think tanker, but would suggest: … · 28 Sept
• BSBrad SetserRising on non petrol goods and services deficit Setser expects the non-petrol goods and services deficit to return to 4-5% of GDP in H2 2026. “I expect the non petrol goods and services deficit to be back in the 4-5% of GDP range in h2 2026” Open the post As a share of GDP, the US trade deficit in h1 20… · 27 Sept
• BSBrad SetserRising on Trade deficit Setser expects the US trade deficit, unusually low as a share of GDP in H1 2026, to widen again. “As a share of GDP, the US trade deficit in h1 2026 was unusually low. Can that last? In my view no” Open the post As a share of GDP, the US trade deficit in h1 20… · 27 Sept
• BSBrad SetserAgainst on China Setser argues a 0.5pp-of-GDP temporary fiscal stimulus in China is too small to make a difference, and notes the IMF has not really called for fiscal expansion there. “a 0.5 pp of GDP "temporary" fiscal stimulus won't move the needle” Open the post Moreover, the IMF hasn't really called for a fis… · 26 Sept
• BSBrad SetserSharply rising on deficit Setser expects the trade deficit to widen dramatically in Q3 and likely in H2, based on July trade and August import data. “the available data for q3 (July trade numbers, plus August import numbers) suggests a gigantic rewidening of the deficit in q3 and likely h2” Open the post Have long enjoyed my dialogue with Kunal Shah, b… · 25 Sept
• BSBrad SetserFor on IMF stats department The IMF stats department should take note of the Fed note on China's data quality. “The IMF stats department should take note” Open the post This Fed note makes a compelling case that China… · 25 Sept