Michael Pettis focused mainly on China’s external imbalances, manufacturing dependence and financial restructuring. He argued that China’s export surge reflects weak domestic consumption and subsidised manufacturing capacity 48, while export restraints would shift benefits among European manufacturers rather than correct the underlying imbalance 4. He also discussed US manufacturing, import competition and household debt, arguing that manufacturing output and employment should be analysed separately 56.
From the window to Oct 10, 05:30 ET — this window's take is still to be written.
On the record
last 90 days · 7 positionsLatest positions
- MPMichael PettisSharply rising on trade imbalances Expects trade imbalances and trade tension to keep worsening. “imbalances and trade tension can only get worse” Open the post Reuters: “A deal halving Chinese hybrid car impo… · 15 Oct
- MPMichael PettisImproving on China Expects the draft gig-economy labor rules to be positive for China's rebalancing and to provide much-needed labor support. “This should be positive for rebalancing and could provide much-needed labor support.” Open the post According to Caixin: "China’s labor ministry on … · 12 Oct
- MPMichael PettisSharply worsening on European Union Expects the hybrid deal to have little effect on overall EU manufacturing, leaving the EU facing deindustrialization unless it intervenes in its external accounts. “it won't have much effect on overall EU manufacturing” Open the post NYT: "Maros Sefcovic, the trade commissioner of … · 11 Oct
- MPMichael PettisBullish on hybrids Expects EU producers of hybrids to be better off as the deal shifts the locus of net manufacturing imports away from hybrids. “EU producers of hybrids will be better off, but at the expense of other EU manufacturers” Open the post NYT: "Maros Sefcovic, the trade commissioner of … · 11 Oct
- MPMichael PettisStable on China Expects China's huge surpluses to persist as long as its deep consumption imbalance and low household income share of GDP remain unaddressed. “China runs huge surpluses not because it produces too many hybrids but rather because of its deep consumption imbalance” Open the post NYT: "Maros Sefcovic, the trade commissioner of … · 11 Oct
- MPMichael PettisAgainst on China Securities Regulatory Commission The CSRC should be encouraging mandatory convertible bonds rather than declining to register them. “The CSRC should be encouraging them.” Open the post Bloomberg: "The China Securities Regulatory Comm… · 9 Sept
- MPMichael PettisBullish on mandatory convertible bonds He views mandatory convertible bonds as very good, countercyclical financing instruments for overly-indebted entities. “These are actually very good, countercyclical instruments for financing overly-indebted entities” Open the post Bloomberg: "The China Securities Regulatory Comm… · 9 Sept
Their output
18 this weekStories it travels in
i
The stories
- ○ a voice, on the left
- ◌ a voice raising half of these
- ● a subject, on the right, under its story
- ⌒ a line is a voice raising a subject — thicker, more items; colour is the story
The stories this entity travels in: on the right, each story with the subjects seen alongside it; on the left, the voices that raised them, and a line for every subject a voice raised, bundled by story. Tap a voice to light everything it raises, a subject for who raised it, a story for its own lines. The crumb goes back.
Who brings it up
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- Conks 1 mention
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