growth

Commentators largely framed growth as “fine” but uneven: Variant Perception’s Tian Yang sees US real growth around 1.5–2%, supported by corporate capex dissaving and a neutral-to-slightly positive fiscal impulse, despite elevated inflation constraints ¹³. Forward Guidance hosts judged economic activity and growth as OK while higher real rates bite and the fiscal impulse fades, arguing mean-reversion in yields is likely even as structural bond headwinds persist ³. Others flagged cracks: Bob Elliott cited signs of consumer exhaustion, and Peter Berezin warned China’s sharply fallen fiscal/credit impulse implies weaker Chinese growth ahead ¹⁰⁵. Luke Gromen linked policy choices and a weaker dollar to higher nominal growth, and argued gold-centered settlement could bring inflation and growth; he also warned that allowing higher rates to choke growth would be a policy error ²⁸.

From the window to Sep 1, 05:30 ET — this window's take is still to be written.