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AI Industry & Chips

Past edition
Oct 13 · 24 voices
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About this edition

47 items · printed Oct 13, 11:35 ET

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The central dispute was whether AI earnings and infrastructure demand can justify continued optimism despite rising valuation, financing and capacity concerns.

S&P 500 7,807 −0.1%NVIDIA $226.32 −1.3%closes of Oct 12

The period’s AI and chip-related coverage focused on whether the AI trade can extend or is becoming financially and technically stretched. HSBC argued that accelerating AI demand, resilient GPU prices and improving earnings guidance support further equity gains 5, while other items highlighted rising pressure on the global AI trade 9, investor agitation 13 and concern about overheated infrastructure spending 18. Sources also examined circular financing, debt-funded data-centre expansion and the risks these could create for markets and banks 2021282935.

CL+1924 voices

What happened

Bloomberg reported that a web of circular investments powering the AI boom is amplifying global imbalances and reviving memories of the 2008 financial crisis.2829

1 of 24

The IMF warned that AI-related challenges could push more global banks to the brink in a doomsday scenario even as profits rise.21

0 of 24

Bloomberg also flagged broader market strains tied to AI: investor agitation over tech stocks, delays in data‑centre IPOs, and heavy corporate borrowing to fund AI builds.131935

1 of 24

“The global AI trade is coming under increasing pressure”

BL BloombergOct 13 Open the source

Where they disagree

Whether AI investment is creating financial-system risk

Circular financing amplifies crisis risk2829

1 voice

AI challenges could imperil banks21

International Monetary Fund

The desk

How the desk is calling it

13 of 23 voices lean bearish on S&P 500. Next to settle: S&P 500 on Apr 1, David Hunter's call; 5 calls open.

Where they stand · S&P 500

i

Reading the chart

  • bullish
  • bearish

S&P 500 · Google Finance

An arrow is one voice's position on the day they took it. Hover or tap an arrow for who it was and what they said.

S&P 500, 2026-09-12 to 2026-10-12, where the desk's voices took positions7,6007,7007,800Sep 15Oct 1The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 15 · up — Historically the S&P 500 dips after the first Fed hike but recovers and gains over 6-12 months, making hikes good buying opportunities.Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · down — The S&P 500 is flat to slightly down after the hike and hawkish press conference.The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 16 · up — The AI boom is providing substantial support for the S&P 500, and a resolution to the energy crisis would open the way for it to rise well above 8,000.Jurrien Timmer · Sep 22 · down — Timmer sees no catalyst for the bull market's next up leg, with the index churning without lasting progress since early June.Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · down — Razaqzada sees a deeper correction in the S&P 500 as increasingly credible, with the index likely to head lower.Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · down — He expects parts of the market to crash before a full-blown 2022-style downturn, with 2027 worse than 2022.Michael Lebowitz · Sep 26 · down — The S&P may fall or trickle off given extreme dispersion and narrow leadership.Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · down — Brooks says the S&P 500 is the worst hedge and falls when oil prices rise.Adam Taggart · Sep 27 · down — He thinks the odds of the stock market continuing to deliver strong gains over the next couple of years are low.Bill Smead · Sep 27 · down — Smead expects the S&P 500 to be lower a decade from now, calling the odds of it being higher almost zero.David Hunter · Oct 1 · up — Hunter targets the S&P 500 at 10,000, roughly 30% higher, within three to six months.Ed Zitron · Oct 1 · down — The S&P 500 is far too weighted toward big tech and the rest of its constituents lack cash flows.Patrick Ceresna · Oct 1 · down — Ceresna sees broad equity correction risk, with the median S&P 500 stock 16% off highs and breadth collapsing.The Kobeissi Letter · Oct 1 · up — Seasonality is turning more favorable for stocks, with history pointing to stronger equity returns ahead.David Hay · Oct 2 · down — Expects terrible market breadth to lead to a very severe bear market.Eric Balchunas · Oct 2 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to hit a new all-time high.Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · down — Expects the downside in the market to be wrapped up only when the big names are sold off, which he suspects happens in 2027.Lance Roberts · Oct 3 · up — Expects the next move in the markets to be higher over the course of the year.James Stanley · Oct 5 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to keep melting up, treating pullbacks as buy-the-dip opportunities.The Kobeissi Letter · Oct 5 · down — Expects further weakness in the S&P 500 given historically weak October market breadth.Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575.Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · down — Sees a major meltdown coming and is looking to get short, though not until the market signals a top.Fiona Cincotta · Oct 7 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to break above 7,840 and target 7,900 and 8,000.Jonny Matthews | SuperMacro · Oct 7 · down — Expects rising equity supply to act as a headwind, or at least a brake, on the S&P 500.Mike McGlone · Oct 8 · down — Expects the S&P 500 to break and drop 10-20%, calling it a matter of when, not if.James Stanley · Oct 9 · up — Expects S&P 500 bullish continuation, with pullbacks seen as opportunistic buying.Lance Roberts · Oct 10 · up — Expects the cap-weighted S&P 500 to be flat to modestly higher into year-end, with the strongest gains in the equal-weighted index.Caleb Silver · Oct 12 · up — Expects higher share prices as long as the earnings parade continues.Charles Lemonides · Oct 12 · up — Expects the bull market to continue, with a blow-off top still ahead and the market potentially running another two to five years.Robin Brooks · Oct 12 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to be the big winner as oil falls and France muddles along.The Kobeissi Letter · Oct 12 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to post another year of strong gains, based on the historical average Year 5 bull market return of +20.8%.
S&P 500, 2026-09-19 to 2026-10-12, where the desk's voices took positions7,7007,800Oct 1Jurrien Timmer · Sep 22 · down — Timmer sees no catalyst for the bull market's next up leg, with the index churning without lasting progress since early June.Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · down — Razaqzada sees a deeper correction in the S&P 500 as increasingly credible, with the index likely to head lower.Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · down — He expects parts of the market to crash before a full-blown 2022-style downturn, with 2027 worse than 2022.Michael Lebowitz · Sep 26 · down — The S&P may fall or trickle off given extreme dispersion and narrow leadership.Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · down — Brooks says the S&P 500 is the worst hedge and falls when oil prices rise.Adam Taggart · Sep 27 · down — He thinks the odds of the stock market continuing to deliver strong gains over the next couple of years are low.Bill Smead · Sep 27 · down — Smead expects the S&P 500 to be lower a decade from now, calling the odds of it being higher almost zero.David Hunter · Oct 1 · up — Hunter targets the S&P 500 at 10,000, roughly 30% higher, within three to six months.Ed Zitron · Oct 1 · down — The S&P 500 is far too weighted toward big tech and the rest of its constituents lack cash flows.Patrick Ceresna · Oct 1 · down — Ceresna sees broad equity correction risk, with the median S&P 500 stock 16% off highs and breadth collapsing.The Kobeissi Letter · Oct 1 · up — Seasonality is turning more favorable for stocks, with history pointing to stronger equity returns ahead.David Hay · Oct 2 · down — Expects terrible market breadth to lead to a very severe bear market.Eric Balchunas · Oct 2 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to hit a new all-time high.Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · down — Expects the downside in the market to be wrapped up only when the big names are sold off, which he suspects happens in 2027.Lance Roberts · Oct 3 · up — Expects the next move in the markets to be higher over the course of the year.James Stanley · Oct 5 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to keep melting up, treating pullbacks as buy-the-dip opportunities.The Kobeissi Letter · Oct 5 · down — Expects further weakness in the S&P 500 given historically weak October market breadth.Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575.Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · down — Sees a major meltdown coming and is looking to get short, though not until the market signals a top.Fiona Cincotta · Oct 7 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to break above 7,840 and target 7,900 and 8,000.Jonny Matthews | SuperMacro · Oct 7 · down — Expects rising equity supply to act as a headwind, or at least a brake, on the S&P 500.Mike McGlone · Oct 8 · down — Expects the S&P 500 to break and drop 10-20%, calling it a matter of when, not if.James Stanley · Oct 9 · up — Expects S&P 500 bullish continuation, with pullbacks seen as opportunistic buying.Lance Roberts · Oct 10 · up — Expects the cap-weighted S&P 500 to be flat to modestly higher into year-end, with the strongest gains in the equal-weighted index.Caleb Silver · Oct 12 · up — Expects higher share prices as long as the earnings parade continues.Charles Lemonides · Oct 12 · up — Expects the bull market to continue, with a blow-off top still ahead and the market potentially running another two to five years.Robin Brooks · Oct 12 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to be the big winner as oil falls and France muddles along.The Kobeissi Letter · Oct 12 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to post another year of strong gains, based on the historical average Year 5 bull market return of +20.8%.
S&P 500, 2026-07-15 to 2026-10-12, with 23 desk voices' positions7,4007,6007,800Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 15 · up — Historically the S&P 500 dips after the first Fed hike but recovers and gains over 6-12 months, making hikes good buying opportunities.Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · down — The S&P 500 is flat to slightly down after the hike and hawkish press conference.The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 16 · up — The AI boom is providing substantial support for the S&P 500, and a resolution to the energy crisis would open the way for it to rise well above 8,000.Jurrien Timmer · Sep 22 · down — Timmer sees no catalyst for the bull market's next up leg, with the index churning without lasting progress since early June.Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · down — Razaqzada sees a deeper correction in the S&P 500 as increasingly credible, with the index likely to head lower.Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · down — He expects parts of the market to crash before a full-blown 2022-style downturn, with 2027 worse than 2022.Michael Lebowitz · Sep 26 · down — The S&P may fall or trickle off given extreme dispersion and narrow leadership.Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · down — Brooks says the S&P 500 is the worst hedge and falls when oil prices rise.Adam Taggart · Sep 27 · down — He thinks the odds of the stock market continuing to deliver strong gains over the next couple of years are low.Bill Smead · Sep 27 · down — Smead expects the S&P 500 to be lower a decade from now, calling the odds of it being higher almost zero.David Hunter · Oct 1 · up — Hunter targets the S&P 500 at 10,000, roughly 30% higher, within three to six months.Ed Zitron · Oct 1 · down — The S&P 500 is far too weighted toward big tech and the rest of its constituents lack cash flows.Patrick Ceresna · Oct 1 · down — Ceresna sees broad equity correction risk, with the median S&P 500 stock 16% off highs and breadth collapsing.The Kobeissi Letter · Oct 1 · up — Seasonality is turning more favorable for stocks, with history pointing to stronger equity returns ahead.David Hay · Oct 2 · down — Expects terrible market breadth to lead to a very severe bear market.Eric Balchunas · Oct 2 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to hit a new all-time high.Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · down — Expects the downside in the market to be wrapped up only when the big names are sold off, which he suspects happens in 2027.Lance Roberts · Oct 3 · up — Expects the next move in the markets to be higher over the course of the year.James Stanley · Oct 5 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to keep melting up, treating pullbacks as buy-the-dip opportunities.The Kobeissi Letter · Oct 5 · down — Expects further weakness in the S&P 500 given historically weak October market breadth.Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575.Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · down — Sees a major meltdown coming and is looking to get short, though not until the market signals a top.Fiona Cincotta · Oct 7 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to break above 7,840 and target 7,900 and 8,000.Jonny Matthews | SuperMacro · Oct 7 · down — Expects rising equity supply to act as a headwind, or at least a brake, on the S&P 500.Mike McGlone · Oct 8 · down — Expects the S&P 500 to break and drop 10-20%, calling it a matter of when, not if.James Stanley · Oct 9 · up — Expects S&P 500 bullish continuation, with pullbacks seen as opportunistic buying.Lance Roberts · Oct 10 · up — Expects the cap-weighted S&P 500 to be flat to modestly higher into year-end, with the strongest gains in the equal-weighted index.Caleb Silver · Oct 12 · up — Expects higher share prices as long as the earnings parade continues.Charles Lemonides · Oct 12 · up — Expects the bull market to continue, with a blow-off top still ahead and the market potentially running another two to five years.Robin Brooks · Oct 12 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to be the big winner as oil falls and France muddles along.The Kobeissi Letter · Oct 12 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to post another year of strong gains, based on the historical average Year 5 bull market return of +20.8%.

S&P 500 rose from 7,572 to 7,807 since Jul 15. The desk's voices, as each stands now: 10 bullish, 13 bearish.

Their record

○S&P 500 heading for another year of strong gains: The Kobeissi Letter.
○AI companies to generate ~$3.5 trillion in annual revenue by 2032: The Kobeissi Letter.
○OpenAI+Anthropic together to reach $1trn in ARR by 2045: Bob Elliott.

What settles next

Near the mark

○ Open · by Dec 31

Gareth Soloway: “S&P 500 to 8,000 by year end”

S&P 500 with Gareth Soloway's target ≥ 8,0007,2507,5007,7508,000Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1target ≥ 8,000Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575.
They said
Oct 6: Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575.
Distance
7,807 now, +2.5% to go by Dec 31.
source ↗
○ Open · no deadline

Fiona Cincotta: “S&P 500 to reach the 8,000 psychological level”

S&P 500 with Fiona Cincotta's target ≥ 8,0007,2507,5007,7508,000Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1target ≥ 8,000Fiona Cincotta · Oct 7 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to break above 7,840 and target 7,900 and 8,000.
They said
Oct 7: Expects the S&P 500 to break above 7,840 and target 7,900 and 8,000.
Distance
7,807 now, +2.5% to go.
source ↗
1 AprS&P 500 · Thu 2027
David Hunter: “S&P 500 to 10,000 within three to six months” (Oct 1). S&P 500 is at 7,807, +28.1% to go.Settles on the close of Apr 1 (S&P 500).
27 SepS&P 500 · Sat 2036
Bill Smead: “S&P 500 lower in 10 years” (Sep 27). S&P 500 is at 7,807.Settles on the close of Sep 27 (S&P 500).
No date6-month check
Mike McGlone: “S&P 500 to drop 20%” (Oct 8) · S&P 500 ≤ 6,212No deadline was given, so each is judged six months after it was said.

The voices

Bloomberg

A web of circular investments powering the AI boom is amplifying global imbalances and stirring echoes of the 2008 financial crisis.2829

6 of this desk's 18 voices spoke · Quiet: Adam Tooze, Arnaud Bertrand, Ben Carlson, Brent Johnson, Ed Zitron, Eric Balchunas, Erik Townsend, Evan, Geiger Capital, Grant Williams, Kaiser Kuo, Michael Liebreich - @MLiebreich.bsky.social

More from the desk

AI trade versus valuation and demand risksHSBC expected strong third-quarter earnings and accelerating AI demand to extend the equity bull market, favouring AI hyperscalers because of computing demand and resilient GPU prices. In contrast, the pool flagged increasing pressure on the global AI trade, greater investor agitation, and commodity-market uncertainty linked to fears of excessive AI-infrastructure spending.

HSBC expected strong third-quarter earnings and accelerating AI demand to extend the equity bull market, favouring AI hyperscalers because of computing demand and resilient GPU prices 5. In contrast, the pool flagged increasing pressure on the global AI trade 9, greater investor agitation 13, and commodity-market uncertainty linked to fears of excessive AI-infrastructure spending 18.

Circular financing and capital intensitySeveral items described a circular-investment model supporting the AI boom while amplifying global imbalances and reviving comparisons with the 2008 financial crisis. Technology companies were also portrayed as heading toward unusually large long-term debt issuance to fund AI investment, while the cost of a single Texas data centre was described as reaching tens of billions of dollars.

Several items described a circular-investment model supporting the AI boom while amplifying global imbalances and reviving comparisons with the 2008 financial crisis 2829. Technology companies were also portrayed as heading toward unusually large long-term debt issuance to fund AI investment 20, while the cost of a single Texas data centre was described as reaching tens of billions of dollars 2545.

Data centres, capacity and infrastructure build-outAnthropic was reported to be considering investment in Australian data centres as it expands capacity globally.

Anthropic was reported to be considering investment in Australian data centres as it expands capacity globally 22.

AI agents, companies and commercial positioningMeta and OpenAI were described as targeting different customer groups with AI agents whose paths may converge. Mark Zuckerberg was reported to have said Meta had reached the AI frontier while rejecting calls for a slowdown, and DeepSeek was reported to be pursuing an investment in an AI-for-robotics startup using capital from its financing.

Meta and OpenAI were described as targeting different customer groups with AI agents whose paths may converge 3. Mark Zuckerberg was reported to have said Meta had reached the AI frontier while rejecting calls for a slowdown 38, and DeepSeek was reported to be pursuing an investment in an AI-for-robotics startup using capital from its financing 43.

Market concentration and bubble debateBank of America’s poll showed fund managers’ technology overweight at its highest since 2020; respondents were nearly split on whether an AI bubble would emerge in 2027, with 45% expecting one and 42% disagreeing. The market-risk case was reinforced by a negative S&P 500 equity-risk premium versus 10-year Treasuries and historically stretched valuations, according to The Kobeissi Letter, while Charles Lemonides’ discussion was framed around the view that the market had not yet reached a blowoff phase.

Bank of America’s poll showed fund managers’ technology overweight at its highest since 2020; respondents were nearly split on whether an AI bubble would emerge in 2027, with 45% expecting one and 42% disagreeing 11. The market-risk case was reinforced by a negative S&P 500 equity-risk premium versus 10-year Treasuries and historically stretched valuations, according to The Kobeissi Letter 23, while Charles Lemonides’ discussion was framed around the view that the market had not yet reached a blowoff phase 3132.

Earlier editions

Oct 15 AI demand was still described as powerful, but financing, valuation and growth concerns drove a clear split be › Oct 14 The central dispute was not whether AI demand exists, but whether infrastructure profits and semiconductor pri › Oct 12 The central dispute was whether AI’s powerful market and infrastructure momentum reflects durable demand or a › Oct 11 The central claim was that AI investment and valuations look vulnerable if growth and revenue fail to accelera › Oct 10 AI demand was portrayed as powerful but increasingly vulnerable to revenue opacity, infrastructure constraints › Oct 9 The central dispute was whether AI’s enormous infrastructure buildout reflects durable demand or an increasing › Oct 8 AI infrastructure enthusiasm is colliding with rising leverage, concentration and bubble concerns. › Oct 6 AI investment and infrastructure momentum remained strong, but financing, demand, valuation and cybersecurity ›