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AI Industry & Chips

Past edition
Oct 15 · 20 voices
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About this edition

56 items · printed Oct 15, 15:35 ET

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AI demand was still described as powerful, but financing, valuation and growth concerns drove a clear split between infrastructure bulls and AI-bubble sceptics.

S&P 500 7,719 −1.1%closes of Oct 14

The period focused on whether AI infrastructure demand remains durable as semiconductor and AI-related shares sold off amid higher financing costs, stretched valuations and concerns about debt and capital intensity 213652. Anthropic’s reported $16.8 billion third-quarter revenue and IPO plans attracted sharply different interpretations: some saw evidence supporting the IPO, while others viewed slowing growth or flat ARR as confirmation that AI valuations are vulnerable 22284146. The pool also covered Nvidia’s potential German partnership, TSMC’s reported discussions around Elon Musk’s Terafab, AI’s macroeconomic investment impact, and safety and legal concerns around Anthropic and OpenAI 419253253. Several followed topics received no attention in this period, including AI boom, banks, Broadcom, cybersecurity, Dario Amodei, DeepSeek, IPOs, James Chanos, King Charles III, net loss, regulation, Salesforce, Sam Altman, San Francisco, Scotland, technology, The Information and the UN Security Council [topic list].

+1520 voices

What happened

Anthropic reported $16.8bn in third‑quarter revenue as it prepares for an IPO, prompting debate about growth and valuations.283847

1 of 20

AI‑related semiconductor and infrastructure stocks fell amid concerns over higher rates, financing and AI spending.89213652

2 of 20

Commentators were split on whether the AI infrastructure selloff is a buying opportunity or a warning about sustainability.12172948

2 of 20

“buying opportunities rather than warning signs”

DI Dan IvesWalter Bloomberg Open the source

Where they disagree

Whether the AI infrastructure selloff is a buying opportunity or a warning

Selloff is a buy12

Dan Ives

CD

Demand strong but sustainability uncertain48

1 voice

The desk

How the desk is calling it

17 of 28 voices lean bearish on S&P 500. Next to settle: S&P 500 on Apr 1, David Hunter's call; 5 calls open.

Where they stand · S&P 500

i

Reading the chart

  • bullish
  • bearish
  • range-bound

S&P 500 · Google Finance

An arrow is one voice's position on the day they took it. Hover or tap an arrow for who it was and what they said.

S&P 500, 2026-09-14 to 2026-10-14, where the desk's voices took positions7,6007,7007,800Sep 15Oct 1The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 15 · up — Historically the S&P 500 dips after the first Fed hike but recovers and gains over 6-12 months, making hikes good buying opportunities.Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · down — The S&P 500 is flat to slightly down after the hike and hawkish press conference.The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 16 · up — The AI boom is providing substantial support for the S&P 500, and a resolution to the energy crisis would open the way for it to rise well above 8,000.Jurrien Timmer · Sep 22 · down — Timmer sees no catalyst for the bull market's next up leg, with the index churning without lasting progress since early June.Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · down — Razaqzada sees a deeper correction in the S&P 500 as increasingly credible, with the index likely to head lower.Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · down — He expects parts of the market to crash before a full-blown 2022-style downturn, with 2027 worse than 2022.Michael Lebowitz · Sep 26 · down — The S&P may fall or trickle off given extreme dispersion and narrow leadership.Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · down — Brooks says the S&P 500 is the worst hedge and falls when oil prices rise.Adam Taggart · Sep 27 · down — He thinks the odds of the stock market continuing to deliver strong gains over the next couple of years are low.Bill Smead · Sep 27 · down — Smead expects the S&P 500 to be lower a decade from now, calling the odds of it being higher almost zero.David Hunter · Oct 1 · up — Hunter targets the S&P 500 at 10,000, roughly 30% higher, within three to six months.Ed Zitron · Oct 1 · down — The S&P 500 is far too weighted toward big tech and the rest of its constituents lack cash flows.Patrick Ceresna · Oct 1 · down — Ceresna sees broad equity correction risk, with the median S&P 500 stock 16% off highs and breadth collapsing.The Kobeissi Letter · Oct 1 · up — Seasonality is turning more favorable for stocks, with history pointing to stronger equity returns ahead.David Hay · Oct 2 · down — Expects terrible market breadth to lead to a very severe bear market.Eric Balchunas · Oct 2 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to hit a new all-time high.Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · down — Expects the downside in the market to be wrapped up only when the big names are sold off, which he suspects happens in 2027.Lance Roberts · Oct 3 · up — Expects the next move in the markets to be higher over the course of the year.James Stanley · Oct 5 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to keep melting up, treating pullbacks as buy-the-dip opportunities.The Kobeissi Letter · Oct 5 · down — Expects further weakness in the S&P 500 given historically weak October market breadth.Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575.Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · down — Sees a major meltdown coming and is looking to get short, though not until the market signals a top.Fiona Cincotta · Oct 7 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to break above 7,840 and target 7,900 and 8,000.Jonny Matthews | SuperMacro · Oct 7 · down — Expects rising equity supply to act as a headwind, or at least a brake, on the S&P 500.Mike McGlone · Oct 8 · down — Expects the S&P 500 to break and drop 10-20%, calling it a matter of when, not if.James Stanley · Oct 9 · up — Expects S&P 500 bullish continuation, with pullbacks seen as opportunistic buying.Lance Roberts · Oct 10 · up — Expects the cap-weighted S&P 500 to be flat to modestly higher into year-end, with the strongest gains in the equal-weighted index.Charles Lemonides · Oct 12 · up — Expects the bull market to continue, with a blow-off top still ahead and the market potentially running another two to five years.The Kobeissi Letter · Oct 12 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to post another year of strong gains, based on the historical average Year 5 bull market return of +20.8%.Caleb Silver · Oct 13 · up — Expects higher share prices as long as the earnings parade continues.Cameron Dawson · Oct 13 · down — Expects earnings growth to slow in 2027, leaving less room to absorb macro headwinds and multiple compression.Robin Brooks · Oct 13 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to be the big winner as oil falls and France muddles along.Thomas Hayes · Oct 13 · steady — Expects the indices to be more subdued than people expect, rising only modestly while the 493 outperforms.Alasdair Macleod · Oct 14 · down — Expects the equity market bubble to implode, with the S&P 500 unable to hold its record levels.Ben Inker · Oct 14 · down — Expects the market to do about 4% worse per percent of market cap coming in via IPO, implying roughly 24% worse than normal with 6% supply.Cameron Dawson · Oct 14 · down — Expects the market to roll over and break down before earnings estimates do.Jesse Felder · Oct 14 · down — Expects the S&P 500 to roll over, with the fourth quarter likely to reveal the deterioration in market breadth.
S&P 500, 2026-09-19 to 2026-10-14, where the desk's voices took positions7,7007,800Oct 1Jurrien Timmer · Sep 22 · down — Timmer sees no catalyst for the bull market's next up leg, with the index churning without lasting progress since early June.Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · down — Razaqzada sees a deeper correction in the S&P 500 as increasingly credible, with the index likely to head lower.Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · down — He expects parts of the market to crash before a full-blown 2022-style downturn, with 2027 worse than 2022.Michael Lebowitz · Sep 26 · down — The S&P may fall or trickle off given extreme dispersion and narrow leadership.Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · down — Brooks says the S&P 500 is the worst hedge and falls when oil prices rise.Adam Taggart · Sep 27 · down — He thinks the odds of the stock market continuing to deliver strong gains over the next couple of years are low.Bill Smead · Sep 27 · down — Smead expects the S&P 500 to be lower a decade from now, calling the odds of it being higher almost zero.David Hunter · Oct 1 · up — Hunter targets the S&P 500 at 10,000, roughly 30% higher, within three to six months.Ed Zitron · Oct 1 · down — The S&P 500 is far too weighted toward big tech and the rest of its constituents lack cash flows.Patrick Ceresna · Oct 1 · down — Ceresna sees broad equity correction risk, with the median S&P 500 stock 16% off highs and breadth collapsing.The Kobeissi Letter · Oct 1 · up — Seasonality is turning more favorable for stocks, with history pointing to stronger equity returns ahead.David Hay · Oct 2 · down — Expects terrible market breadth to lead to a very severe bear market.Eric Balchunas · Oct 2 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to hit a new all-time high.Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · down — Expects the downside in the market to be wrapped up only when the big names are sold off, which he suspects happens in 2027.Lance Roberts · Oct 3 · up — Expects the next move in the markets to be higher over the course of the year.James Stanley · Oct 5 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to keep melting up, treating pullbacks as buy-the-dip opportunities.The Kobeissi Letter · Oct 5 · down — Expects further weakness in the S&P 500 given historically weak October market breadth.Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575.Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · down — Sees a major meltdown coming and is looking to get short, though not until the market signals a top.Fiona Cincotta · Oct 7 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to break above 7,840 and target 7,900 and 8,000.Jonny Matthews | SuperMacro · Oct 7 · down — Expects rising equity supply to act as a headwind, or at least a brake, on the S&P 500.Mike McGlone · Oct 8 · down — Expects the S&P 500 to break and drop 10-20%, calling it a matter of when, not if.James Stanley · Oct 9 · up — Expects S&P 500 bullish continuation, with pullbacks seen as opportunistic buying.Lance Roberts · Oct 10 · up — Expects the cap-weighted S&P 500 to be flat to modestly higher into year-end, with the strongest gains in the equal-weighted index.Charles Lemonides · Oct 12 · up — Expects the bull market to continue, with a blow-off top still ahead and the market potentially running another two to five years.The Kobeissi Letter · Oct 12 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to post another year of strong gains, based on the historical average Year 5 bull market return of +20.8%.Caleb Silver · Oct 13 · up — Expects higher share prices as long as the earnings parade continues.Cameron Dawson · Oct 13 · down — Expects earnings growth to slow in 2027, leaving less room to absorb macro headwinds and multiple compression.Robin Brooks · Oct 13 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to be the big winner as oil falls and France muddles along.Thomas Hayes · Oct 13 · steady — Expects the indices to be more subdued than people expect, rising only modestly while the 493 outperforms.Alasdair Macleod · Oct 14 · down — Expects the equity market bubble to implode, with the S&P 500 unable to hold its record levels.Ben Inker · Oct 14 · down — Expects the market to do about 4% worse per percent of market cap coming in via IPO, implying roughly 24% worse than normal with 6% supply.Cameron Dawson · Oct 14 · down — Expects the market to roll over and break down before earnings estimates do.Jesse Felder · Oct 14 · down — Expects the S&P 500 to roll over, with the fourth quarter likely to reveal the deterioration in market breadth.
S&P 500, 2026-07-17 to 2026-10-14, with 28 desk voices' positions7,4007,6007,800Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 15 · up — Historically the S&P 500 dips after the first Fed hike but recovers and gains over 6-12 months, making hikes good buying opportunities.Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · down — The S&P 500 is flat to slightly down after the hike and hawkish press conference.The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 16 · up — The AI boom is providing substantial support for the S&P 500, and a resolution to the energy crisis would open the way for it to rise well above 8,000.Jurrien Timmer · Sep 22 · down — Timmer sees no catalyst for the bull market's next up leg, with the index churning without lasting progress since early June.Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · down — Razaqzada sees a deeper correction in the S&P 500 as increasingly credible, with the index likely to head lower.Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · down — He expects parts of the market to crash before a full-blown 2022-style downturn, with 2027 worse than 2022.Michael Lebowitz · Sep 26 · down — The S&P may fall or trickle off given extreme dispersion and narrow leadership.Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · down — Brooks says the S&P 500 is the worst hedge and falls when oil prices rise.Adam Taggart · Sep 27 · down — He thinks the odds of the stock market continuing to deliver strong gains over the next couple of years are low.Bill Smead · Sep 27 · down — Smead expects the S&P 500 to be lower a decade from now, calling the odds of it being higher almost zero.David Hunter · Oct 1 · up — Hunter targets the S&P 500 at 10,000, roughly 30% higher, within three to six months.Ed Zitron · Oct 1 · down — The S&P 500 is far too weighted toward big tech and the rest of its constituents lack cash flows.Patrick Ceresna · Oct 1 · down — Ceresna sees broad equity correction risk, with the median S&P 500 stock 16% off highs and breadth collapsing.The Kobeissi Letter · Oct 1 · up — Seasonality is turning more favorable for stocks, with history pointing to stronger equity returns ahead.David Hay · Oct 2 · down — Expects terrible market breadth to lead to a very severe bear market.Eric Balchunas · Oct 2 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to hit a new all-time high.Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · down — Expects the downside in the market to be wrapped up only when the big names are sold off, which he suspects happens in 2027.Lance Roberts · Oct 3 · up — Expects the next move in the markets to be higher over the course of the year.James Stanley · Oct 5 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to keep melting up, treating pullbacks as buy-the-dip opportunities.The Kobeissi Letter · Oct 5 · down — Expects further weakness in the S&P 500 given historically weak October market breadth.Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575.Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · down — Sees a major meltdown coming and is looking to get short, though not until the market signals a top.Fiona Cincotta · Oct 7 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to break above 7,840 and target 7,900 and 8,000.Jonny Matthews | SuperMacro · Oct 7 · down — Expects rising equity supply to act as a headwind, or at least a brake, on the S&P 500.Mike McGlone · Oct 8 · down — Expects the S&P 500 to break and drop 10-20%, calling it a matter of when, not if.James Stanley · Oct 9 · up — Expects S&P 500 bullish continuation, with pullbacks seen as opportunistic buying.Lance Roberts · Oct 10 · up — Expects the cap-weighted S&P 500 to be flat to modestly higher into year-end, with the strongest gains in the equal-weighted index.Charles Lemonides · Oct 12 · up — Expects the bull market to continue, with a blow-off top still ahead and the market potentially running another two to five years.The Kobeissi Letter · Oct 12 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to post another year of strong gains, based on the historical average Year 5 bull market return of +20.8%.Caleb Silver · Oct 13 · up — Expects higher share prices as long as the earnings parade continues.Cameron Dawson · Oct 13 · down — Expects earnings growth to slow in 2027, leaving less room to absorb macro headwinds and multiple compression.Robin Brooks · Oct 13 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to be the big winner as oil falls and France muddles along.Thomas Hayes · Oct 13 · steady — Expects the indices to be more subdued than people expect, rising only modestly while the 493 outperforms.Alasdair Macleod · Oct 14 · down — Expects the equity market bubble to implode, with the S&P 500 unable to hold its record levels.Ben Inker · Oct 14 · down — Expects the market to do about 4% worse per percent of market cap coming in via IPO, implying roughly 24% worse than normal with 6% supply.Cameron Dawson · Oct 14 · down — Expects the market to roll over and break down before earnings estimates do.Jesse Felder · Oct 14 · down — Expects the S&P 500 to roll over, with the fourth quarter likely to reveal the deterioration in market breadth.

S&P 500 rose from 7,458 to 7,719 since Jul 17. The desk's voices, as each stands now: 10 bullish, 17 bearish, 1 range-bound.

Their record

○AI bubble bursts within 12-18 months: Ben Inker.
○US fiscal deficit to widen to -6.1% of GDP in 2027: The Kobeissi Letter.
○AI CapEx boom peaks around 2028, stocks peak in 2027: Peter Berezin.

What settles next

Near the mark

○ Open · by Dec 31

Gareth Soloway: “S&P 500 to 8,000 by year end”

S&P 500 with Gareth Soloway's target ≥ 8,0007,2507,5007,7508,000Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1target ≥ 8,000Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575.
They said
Oct 6: Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575.
Distance
7,719 now, +3.6% to go by Dec 31.
source ↗
○ Open · no deadline

Fiona Cincotta: “S&P 500 to reach the 8,000 psychological level”

S&P 500 with Fiona Cincotta's target ≥ 8,0007,2507,5007,7508,000Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1target ≥ 8,000Fiona Cincotta · Oct 7 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to break above 7,840 and target 7,900 and 8,000.
They said
Oct 7: Expects the S&P 500 to break above 7,840 and target 7,900 and 8,000.
Distance
7,719 now, +3.6% to go.
source ↗
1 AprS&P 500 · Thu 2027
David Hunter: “S&P 500 to 10,000 within three to six months” (Oct 1). S&P 500 is at 7,719, +29.6% to go.Settles on the close of Apr 1 (S&P 500).
27 SepS&P 500 · Sat 2036
Bill Smead: “S&P 500 lower in 10 years” (Sep 27). S&P 500 is at 7,719.Settles on the close of Sep 27 (S&P 500).
No date6-month check
Mike McGlone: “S&P 500 to drop 20%” (Oct 8) · S&P 500 ≤ 6,212No deadline was given, so each is judged six months after it was said.

The voices

Bloomberg

Anthropic’s Q3 revenue was reported at $16.8bn as the company pushes ahead with IPO plans while AI financing and valuation concerns weigh on the sector.223847

Walter Bloomberg

AI infrastructure financing concerns and higher borrowing costs are pressuring names like CoreWeave, Oracle and regional chip stocks as investors reassess spending plans.91721

CD

Cameron Dawson

For now demand is very strong thanks to hyperscaler capex, but sustaining AI infrastructure stocks depends on whether 2027 capex and margin estimates hold.48

Adam Taggart

The scale of AI capital expenditure and speculative activity appears larger than prior bubbles, making it unclear when investment becomes excessive.3

Mohamed El-Erian

Falling bond yields partly reflect flight to quality from pressured tech shares and concern that tech’s role as a US growth engine may be less robust.6

Robin Brooks

Despite AI‑related jitters in the stock market, the US activity picture remains solid based on recent data surprises.7

Geiger Capital

Anthropic’s revenue jump to $16.8bn is 'not good enough' and signals the story may be over.45

The Kobeissi Letter

Anthropic posted Q3 revenue of $16.8bn, up nearly 50% from the prior quarter, and said it posted a profit as it prepares to go public.46

5 of this desk's 18 voices spoke · Quiet: Adam Tooze, Arnaud Bertrand, Ben Carlson, Brent Johnson, Dan Nathan, Ed Zitron, Eric Balchunas, Erik Townsend, Evan, Grant Williams, Kaiser Kuo, Max Wiethe, Michael Liebreich - @MLiebreich.bsky.social

More from the desk

AI infrastructure: strong demand versus financing and valuation riskDan Ives characterised the selloff in CoreWeave, IREN and Nebius as a buying opportunity, arguing that demand remained strong despite higher financing costs and that chip demand exceeded supply. By contrast, Saxo favoured profitable chipmakers over debt-heavy infrastructure companies, while market coverage linked pressure on CoreWeave and Oracle to borrowing costs and data-centre funding.

Dan Ives characterised the selloff in CoreWeave, IREN and Nebius as a buying opportunity, arguing that demand remained strong despite higher financing costs and that chip demand exceeded supply 12. By contrast, Saxo favoured profitable chipmakers over debt-heavy infrastructure companies, while market coverage linked pressure on CoreWeave and Oracle to borrowing costs and data-centre funding 1721.

Anthropic’s results and IPO prospectsAnthropic was reported to have generated $16.8 billion of third-quarter revenue and to be pursuing an IPO, with some investors saying the results could strengthen the listing case. Other commentary said growth had slowed sharply, while Bob Elliott argued that ARR was flat and Geiger Capital called the result insufficient; New York City’s comptroller urged Anthropic to pause the IPO until safety and governance risks were addressed.

Anthropic was reported to have generated $16.8 billion of third-quarter revenue and to be pursuing an IPO, with some investors saying the results could strengthen the listing case 2838. Other commentary said growth had slowed sharply, while Bob Elliott argued that ARR was flat and Geiger Capital called the result insufficient; New York City’s comptroller urged Anthropic to pause the IPO until safety and governance risks were addressed 1224145.

Semiconductor market weakness despite earnings and capexChip shares and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell as investors reassessed AI spending, rates and valuations. Cameron Dawson said semiconductor margins and hyperscaler capex remained exceptionally strong, but warned that the market was questioning whether projected 2027 margin and capex growth could be sustained. TSMC nevertheless reported better-than-expected profit, illustrating the tension between strong company results and weak sector sentiment.

Chip shares and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell as investors reassessed AI spending, rates and valuations 8921. Cameron Dawson said semiconductor margins and hyperscaler capex remained exceptionally strong, but warned that the market was questioning whether projected 2027 margin and capex growth could be sustained 48. TSMC nevertheless reported better-than-expected profit, illustrating the tension between strong company results and weak sector sentiment 2430.

AI’s macroeconomic and market concentration effectsSteve Hanke attributed strong credit and money-supply growth partly to unusually intense AI and data-centre investment.

Steve Hanke attributed strong credit and money-supply growth partly to unusually intense AI and data-centre investment 32.

Geopolitical, safety and commercial expansionGermany was reported to be preparing a government-backed AI partnership with Nvidia involving industrial AI, robotics and autonomous systems. Jensen Huang said Nvidia would stop supplying chips to a customer developing unsafe AI software, while saying current concern about the technology was not warranted. The period also included reports of US states suing OpenAI over alleged harm to children and of Apple preparing an AI-platform launch in mainland China.

Germany was reported to be preparing a government-backed AI partnership with Nvidia involving industrial AI, robotics and autonomous systems 4. Jensen Huang said Nvidia would stop supplying chips to a customer developing unsafe AI software, while saying current concern about the technology was not warranted 25. The period also included reports of US states suing OpenAI over alleged harm to children and of Apple preparing an AI-platform launch in mainland China 5053.

Earlier editions

Oct 14 The central dispute was not whether AI demand exists, but whether infrastructure profits and semiconductor pri › Oct 13 The central dispute was whether AI earnings and infrastructure demand can justify continued optimism despite r › Oct 12 The central dispute was whether AI’s powerful market and infrastructure momentum reflects durable demand or a › Oct 11 The central claim was that AI investment and valuations look vulnerable if growth and revenue fail to accelera › Oct 10 AI demand was portrayed as powerful but increasingly vulnerable to revenue opacity, infrastructure constraints › Oct 9 The central dispute was whether AI’s enormous infrastructure buildout reflects durable demand or an increasing › Oct 8 AI infrastructure enthusiasm is colliding with rising leverage, concentration and bubble concerns. › Oct 6 AI investment and infrastructure momentum remained strong, but financing, demand, valuation and cybersecurity ›