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AI Industry & Chips

Past edition
Oct 10 · 26 voices
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About this edition

52 items · printed Oct 10, 08:35 ET

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AI demand was portrayed as powerful but increasingly vulnerable to revenue opacity, infrastructure constraints, financing pressure and narrow market leadership.

S&P 500 7,812 +0.6%closes of Oct 9

The period’s discussion centred on whether AI investment and valuations can sustain their pace, with attention on OpenAI and Anthropic revenue disclosure, semiconductor demand, data-centre financing and the market’s narrow AI-led leadership. Bullish claims focused on strong underlying demand and continued equity upside 294047, while sceptical voices highlighted revenue-definition problems, possible growth deceleration, losses, leverage and concentration risk 25334647. The evidence also covered AI’s physical costs—power, water, copper and equipment—and its wider social and political implications 12184552.

+2126 voices

What happened

Jack Farley said Nvidia has enough demand to achieve 100% growth if land, power and data‑centre shells can be secured.29

1 of 26

Reports highlighted that OpenAI and Anthropic report revenue differently, creating investor confusion about AI leaders' growth.2546

2 of 26

Analysts and commentators warned of AI’s heavy physical demands—power, water, copper and equipment—which could constrain buildout and create systemic risks.124552

3 of 26
Show 1 moreShow fewer

James Stanley argued higher yields raise funding pressure on loss-making AI firms but are not an immediate death sentence for stocks and he remained constructive on equities.47

1 of 26

“the AI boom is first and foremost an energy and materials event.”

NH Nate HagensOct 9 ▶ 7:30

Where they disagree

AI growth outlook and investability

Sufficient demand for Nvidia29

1 voice

JS

Stocks still investable despite risks47

1 voice

The desk

How the desk is calling it

15 of 21 voices lean bearish on S&P 500. Next to settle: S&P 500 on Apr 1, David Hunter's call; 5 calls open.

Where they stand · S&P 500

i

Reading the chart

  • bullish
  • bearish

S&P 500 · Google Finance

An arrow is one voice's position on the day they took it. Hover or tap an arrow for who it was and what they said.

S&P 500, 2026-09-09 to 2026-10-09, where the desk's voices took positions7,6007,7007,800Sep 15Oct 1The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 15 · up — Historically the S&P 500 dips after the first Fed hike but recovers and gains over 6-12 months, making hikes good buying opportunities.Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · down — The S&P 500 is flat to slightly down after the hike and hawkish press conference.The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 16 · up — The AI boom is providing substantial support for the S&P 500, and a resolution to the energy crisis would open the way for it to rise well above 8,000.Jurrien Timmer · Sep 22 · down — Timmer sees no catalyst for the bull market's next up leg, with the index churning without lasting progress since early June.Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · down — Razaqzada sees a deeper correction in the S&P 500 as increasingly credible, with the index likely to head lower.Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · down — He expects parts of the market to crash before a full-blown 2022-style downturn, with 2027 worse than 2022.Michael Lebowitz · Sep 26 · down — The S&P may fall or trickle off given extreme dispersion and narrow leadership.Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · down — Brooks says the S&P 500 is the worst hedge and falls when oil prices rise.Adam Taggart · Sep 27 · down — He thinks the odds of the stock market continuing to deliver strong gains over the next couple of years are low.Bill Smead · Sep 27 · down — Smead expects the S&P 500 to be lower a decade from now, calling the odds of it being higher almost zero.David Hunter · Oct 1 · up — Hunter targets the S&P 500 at 10,000, roughly 30% higher, within three to six months.Ed Zitron · Oct 1 · down — The S&P 500 is far too weighted toward big tech and the rest of its constituents lack cash flows.Patrick Ceresna · Oct 1 · down — Ceresna sees broad equity correction risk, with the median S&P 500 stock 16% off highs and breadth collapsing.The Kobeissi Letter · Oct 1 · up — Seasonality is turning more favorable for stocks, with history pointing to stronger equity returns ahead.David Hay · Oct 2 · down — Expects terrible market breadth to lead to a very severe bear market.Eric Balchunas · Oct 2 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to hit a new all-time high.Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · down — Expects the downside in the market to be wrapped up only when the big names are sold off, which he suspects happens in 2027.Lance Roberts · Oct 3 · up — Expects the next move in the markets to be higher over the course of the year.James Stanley · Oct 5 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to keep melting up, treating pullbacks as buy-the-dip opportunities.The Kobeissi Letter · Oct 5 · down — Expects further weakness in the S&P 500 given historically weak October market breadth.Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575.Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · down — Sees a major meltdown coming and is looking to get short, though not until the market signals a top.Fiona Cincotta · Oct 7 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to break above 7,840 and target 7,900 and 8,000.Jonny Matthews | SuperMacro · Oct 7 · down — Expects rising equity supply to act as a headwind, or at least a brake, on the S&P 500.Mike McGlone · Oct 8 · down — Expects the S&P 500 to break and drop 10-20%, calling it a matter of when, not if.James Stanley · Oct 9 · up — Expects S&P 500 bullish continuation, with pullbacks seen as opportunistic buying.
S&P 500, 2026-09-17 to 2026-10-09, where the desk's voices took positions7,7007,800Oct 1Jurrien Timmer · Sep 22 · down — Timmer sees no catalyst for the bull market's next up leg, with the index churning without lasting progress since early June.Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · down — Razaqzada sees a deeper correction in the S&P 500 as increasingly credible, with the index likely to head lower.Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · down — He expects parts of the market to crash before a full-blown 2022-style downturn, with 2027 worse than 2022.Michael Lebowitz · Sep 26 · down — The S&P may fall or trickle off given extreme dispersion and narrow leadership.Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · down — Brooks says the S&P 500 is the worst hedge and falls when oil prices rise.Adam Taggart · Sep 27 · down — He thinks the odds of the stock market continuing to deliver strong gains over the next couple of years are low.Bill Smead · Sep 27 · down — Smead expects the S&P 500 to be lower a decade from now, calling the odds of it being higher almost zero.David Hunter · Oct 1 · up — Hunter targets the S&P 500 at 10,000, roughly 30% higher, within three to six months.Ed Zitron · Oct 1 · down — The S&P 500 is far too weighted toward big tech and the rest of its constituents lack cash flows.Patrick Ceresna · Oct 1 · down — Ceresna sees broad equity correction risk, with the median S&P 500 stock 16% off highs and breadth collapsing.The Kobeissi Letter · Oct 1 · up — Seasonality is turning more favorable for stocks, with history pointing to stronger equity returns ahead.David Hay · Oct 2 · down — Expects terrible market breadth to lead to a very severe bear market.Eric Balchunas · Oct 2 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to hit a new all-time high.Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · down — Expects the downside in the market to be wrapped up only when the big names are sold off, which he suspects happens in 2027.Lance Roberts · Oct 3 · up — Expects the next move in the markets to be higher over the course of the year.James Stanley · Oct 5 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to keep melting up, treating pullbacks as buy-the-dip opportunities.The Kobeissi Letter · Oct 5 · down — Expects further weakness in the S&P 500 given historically weak October market breadth.Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575.Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · down — Sees a major meltdown coming and is looking to get short, though not until the market signals a top.Fiona Cincotta · Oct 7 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to break above 7,840 and target 7,900 and 8,000.Jonny Matthews | SuperMacro · Oct 7 · down — Expects rising equity supply to act as a headwind, or at least a brake, on the S&P 500.Mike McGlone · Oct 8 · down — Expects the S&P 500 to break and drop 10-20%, calling it a matter of when, not if.James Stanley · Oct 9 · up — Expects S&P 500 bullish continuation, with pullbacks seen as opportunistic buying.
S&P 500, 2026-07-13 to 2026-10-09, with 21 desk voices' positions7,4007,6007,800Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 15 · up — Historically the S&P 500 dips after the first Fed hike but recovers and gains over 6-12 months, making hikes good buying opportunities.Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · down — The S&P 500 is flat to slightly down after the hike and hawkish press conference.The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 16 · up — The AI boom is providing substantial support for the S&P 500, and a resolution to the energy crisis would open the way for it to rise well above 8,000.Jurrien Timmer · Sep 22 · down — Timmer sees no catalyst for the bull market's next up leg, with the index churning without lasting progress since early June.Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · down — Razaqzada sees a deeper correction in the S&P 500 as increasingly credible, with the index likely to head lower.Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · down — He expects parts of the market to crash before a full-blown 2022-style downturn, with 2027 worse than 2022.Michael Lebowitz · Sep 26 · down — The S&P may fall or trickle off given extreme dispersion and narrow leadership.Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · down — Brooks says the S&P 500 is the worst hedge and falls when oil prices rise.Adam Taggart · Sep 27 · down — He thinks the odds of the stock market continuing to deliver strong gains over the next couple of years are low.Bill Smead · Sep 27 · down — Smead expects the S&P 500 to be lower a decade from now, calling the odds of it being higher almost zero.David Hunter · Oct 1 · up — Hunter targets the S&P 500 at 10,000, roughly 30% higher, within three to six months.Ed Zitron · Oct 1 · down — The S&P 500 is far too weighted toward big tech and the rest of its constituents lack cash flows.Patrick Ceresna · Oct 1 · down — Ceresna sees broad equity correction risk, with the median S&P 500 stock 16% off highs and breadth collapsing.The Kobeissi Letter · Oct 1 · up — Seasonality is turning more favorable for stocks, with history pointing to stronger equity returns ahead.David Hay · Oct 2 · down — Expects terrible market breadth to lead to a very severe bear market.Eric Balchunas · Oct 2 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to hit a new all-time high.Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · down — Expects the downside in the market to be wrapped up only when the big names are sold off, which he suspects happens in 2027.Lance Roberts · Oct 3 · up — Expects the next move in the markets to be higher over the course of the year.James Stanley · Oct 5 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to keep melting up, treating pullbacks as buy-the-dip opportunities.The Kobeissi Letter · Oct 5 · down — Expects further weakness in the S&P 500 given historically weak October market breadth.Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575.Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · down — Sees a major meltdown coming and is looking to get short, though not until the market signals a top.Fiona Cincotta · Oct 7 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to break above 7,840 and target 7,900 and 8,000.Jonny Matthews | SuperMacro · Oct 7 · down — Expects rising equity supply to act as a headwind, or at least a brake, on the S&P 500.Mike McGlone · Oct 8 · down — Expects the S&P 500 to break and drop 10-20%, calling it a matter of when, not if.James Stanley · Oct 9 · up — Expects S&P 500 bullish continuation, with pullbacks seen as opportunistic buying.

S&P 500 rose from 7,515 to 7,812 since Jul 13. The desk's voices, as each stands now: 6 bullish, 15 bearish.

Their record

○AI companies to generate ~$3.5 trillion in annual revenue by 2032: The Kobeissi Letter.
○OpenAI+Anthropic together to reach $1trn in ARR by 2045: Bob Elliott.
○Oracle downgraded to junk: steph pomboy.

What settles next

Near the mark

○ Open · by Dec 31

Gareth Soloway: “S&P 500 to 8,000 by year end”

S&P 500 with Gareth Soloway's target ≥ 8,0007,2507,5007,7508,000Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1target ≥ 8,000Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575.
They said
Oct 6: Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575.
Distance
7,812 now, +2.4% to go by Dec 31.
source ↗
○ Open · no deadline

Fiona Cincotta: “S&P 500 to reach the 8,000 psychological level”

S&P 500 with Fiona Cincotta's target ≥ 8,0007,2507,5007,7508,000Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1target ≥ 8,000Fiona Cincotta · Oct 7 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to break above 7,840 and target 7,900 and 8,000.
They said
Oct 7: Expects the S&P 500 to break above 7,840 and target 7,900 and 8,000.
Distance
7,812 now, +2.4% to go.
source ↗
1 AprS&P 500 · Thu 2027
David Hunter: “S&P 500 to 10,000 within three to six months” (Oct 1). S&P 500 is at 7,812, +28.0% to go.Settles on the close of Apr 1 (S&P 500).
27 SepS&P 500 · Sat 2036
Bill Smead: “S&P 500 lower in 10 years” (Sep 27). S&P 500 is at 7,812.Settles on the close of Sep 27 (S&P 500).
No date6-month check
Mike McGlone: “S&P 500 to drop 20%” (Oct 8) · S&P 500 ≤ 6,212No deadline was given, so each is judged six months after it was said.

The voices

Jack Farley

Is Nvidia trading at 11.5x forward earnings? Per my convo, Nvidia actually has enough demand for 100% growth if they can secure land, power and shells to build out.29

JS

James Stanley

Anthropic showed large losses and AI firms are sensitive to rising yields, but higher yields aren’t an automatic death sentence for stocks and I remain constructive looking at pullbacks as opportunities.47

Bloomberg

Investors have run into a problem comparing OpenAI and Anthropic because the two private companies calculate a closely watched revenue figure differently.25

Bob Elliott

News of lower OpenAI revenue and hastily leaked guidance suggests a transition from parabolic to linear industry revenue growth ahead.46

Nate Hagens

The AI boom is primarily an energy and materials event consuming transformers, turbines, copper and water, creating systemic and social risks tied to infrastructure and debt.45

Jeffrey Currie ++

(Guests highlighted) data‑intensive AI buildout raises demand for industrial inputs and infrastructure, stressing supply chains for turbines and other equipment.2352

8 of this desk's 18 voices spoke · Quiet: Arnaud Bertrand, Brent Johnson, Dan Nathan, David Lin, Ed Zitron, Erik Townsend, Evan, Grant Williams, Max Wiethe, Michael Liebreich - @MLiebreich.bsky.social

More from the desk

AI revenue, profitability and fundingBloomberg reported that OpenAI and Anthropic calculate a closely watched revenue measure differently, complicating comparisons. Bob Elliott argued that weaker OpenAI revenue and late guidance indicated a shift from parabolic to linear industry growth, while James Stanley highlighted Anthropic’s reported loss and OpenAI’s greater dependence on debt markets but still favoured the long side of stocks.

Bloomberg reported that OpenAI and Anthropic calculate a closely watched revenue measure differently, complicating comparisons 25. Bob Elliott argued that weaker OpenAI revenue and late guidance indicated a shift from parabolic to linear industry growth 46, while James Stanley highlighted Anthropic’s reported loss and OpenAI’s greater dependence on debt markets but still favoured the long side of stocks 47.

Semiconductor and infrastructure demandNvidia demand was described as constrained more by land, power and data-centre construction than by customer appetite. UBS maintained a Buy view on Nvidia after strong Taiwanese computing-equipment exports, interpreting the data as support for AI-infrastructure demand. Data-centre expansion was also linked to water scarcity, tax-revenue losses and new financing activity.

Nvidia demand was described as constrained more by land, power and data-centre construction than by customer appetite 29. UBS maintained a Buy view on Nvidia after strong Taiwanese computing-equipment exports, interpreting the data as support for AI-infrastructure demand 40. Data-centre expansion was also linked to water scarcity, tax-revenue losses and new financing activity 121849.

AI-led market concentrationThe Kobeissi Letter said AI-related stocks were driving the market, with AI enablers substantially outperforming the wider S&P 500. Other coverage stressed that the rally’s narrow leadership created concentration concerns, while Eric Balchunas argued that apparent weak breadth was less alarming because the dominant technology companies represent many acquired businesses.

The Kobeissi Letter said AI-related stocks were driving the market, with AI enablers substantially outperforming the wider S&P 500 32. Other coverage stressed that the rally’s narrow leadership created concentration concerns 41, while Eric Balchunas argued that apparent weak breadth was less alarming because the dominant technology companies represent many acquired businesses 42.

Physical and social costs of AINate Hagens characterised AI primarily as an energy-and-materials buildout, citing pressure on transformers, turbines, cooling water, copper and electronic waste, and warned that debt could outlast the useful life of chips. Bloomberg separately highlighted data-centre water scarcity, while the copper discussion linked a potential AI reversal to weaker demand for copper, construction materials and related industrial equipment.

Nate Hagens characterised AI primarily as an energy-and-materials buildout, citing pressure on transformers, turbines, cooling water, copper and electronic waste, and warned that debt could outlast the useful life of chips 45. Bloomberg separately highlighted data-centre water scarcity 12, while the copper discussion linked a potential AI reversal to weaker demand for copper, construction materials and related industrial equipment 52.

Different public attitudes and risksOn Sinica’s show, Kaiser Kuo and Afra Wang discussed stronger Chinese optimism about AI than in the United States, with Kuo attributing part of the difference to a long-standing belief that technology improves life. Hagens instead emphasised misuse, autonomous system risks, social polarisation and the possibility that people could be economically compelled to use AI.

On Sinica’s show, Kaiser Kuo and Afra Wang discussed stronger Chinese optimism about AI than in the United States, with Kuo attributing part of the difference to a long-standing belief that technology improves life 48. Hagens instead emphasised misuse, autonomous system risks, social polarisation and the possibility that people could be economically compelled to use AI 45.

Earlier editions

Oct 15 AI demand was still described as powerful, but financing, valuation and growth concerns drove a clear split be › Oct 14 The central dispute was not whether AI demand exists, but whether infrastructure profits and semiconductor pri › Oct 13 The central dispute was whether AI earnings and infrastructure demand can justify continued optimism despite r › Oct 12 The central dispute was whether AI’s powerful market and infrastructure momentum reflects durable demand or a › Oct 11 The central claim was that AI investment and valuations look vulnerable if growth and revenue fail to accelera › Oct 9 The central dispute was whether AI’s enormous infrastructure buildout reflects durable demand or an increasing › Oct 8 AI infrastructure enthusiasm is colliding with rising leverage, concentration and bubble concerns. › Oct 6 AI investment and infrastructure momentum remained strong, but financing, demand, valuation and cybersecurity ›