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Past edition
Oct 12 · 19 voices
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About this edition

43 items · printed Oct 12, 10:35 ET

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The central dispute was whether AI’s powerful market and infrastructure momentum reflects durable demand or a late-stage, heavily concentrated investment boom.

Apple $336.64 −1.1%NVIDIA $229.28 −0.5%closes of Oct 9

The pool focused on whether AI investment and valuations can be sustained, with concerns about concentrated market leadership, financing, data-centre costs and the absence of clear end-user payment capacity 22313343. Others highlighted continuing demand and expansion, including prospective AI-related acquisitions, infrastructure lending and Taiwan’s wider economic benefits 212329. Sources also discussed AI’s labour impact and regulation, but the evidence shows competing claims rather than consensus 21213. Several followed topics received no attention in this pool, including AMD, the AI boom as a topic, cybersecurity, Dario Amodei, DeepSeek, IPO/going-public variants beyond the items cited, Jensen Huang, regulation, revenue and semiconductor as a standalone topic.

+1419 voices

What happened

Bloomberg Opinion warned Masayoshi Son’s new $100 billion plan signals the AI investment boom is entering its late stages.31

0 of 19

Bob Elliott argued that while semiconductors and hyperscalers expect AI demand, there’s no clear payer and sustaining expectations would require non-tech firms to commit all free cash flow to AI by 2030.43

1 of 19

Grant Cardone said capital and construction labor will keep flowing into data centers, implying continued infrastructure demand.35

1 of 19
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Evidence showed market concentration around AI names, with a small basket driving most S&P gains and capex/R&D, raising sustainability concerns.33

1 of 19

“AI "will probably be the biggest job generator in decades"”

AM Alexandra MousavizadehBloomberg Open the source

Where they disagree

Whether AI demand and investment are sustainable

AI boom late-stage31

Shuli Ren/Bloomberg Opinion

Unclear who will pay43

1 voice

GC

Infrastructure demand persists35

1 voice

The desk

How the desk is calling it

18 of 25 voices lean bearish on S&P 500. Next to settle: S&P 500 on Apr 1, David Hunter's call; 5 calls open.

Where they stand · S&P 500

i

Reading the chart

  • bullish
  • bearish

S&P 500 · Google Finance

An arrow is one voice's position on the day they took it. Hover or tap an arrow for who it was and what they said.

S&P 500, 2026-09-09 to 2026-10-09, where the desk's voices took positions7,6007,7007,800Sep 15Oct 1The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 15 · up — Historically the S&P 500 dips after the first Fed hike but recovers and gains over 6-12 months, making hikes good buying opportunities.Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · down — The S&P 500 is flat to slightly down after the hike and hawkish press conference.The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 16 · up — The AI boom is providing substantial support for the S&P 500, and a resolution to the energy crisis would open the way for it to rise well above 8,000.Jurrien Timmer · Sep 22 · down — Timmer sees no catalyst for the bull market's next up leg, with the index churning without lasting progress since early June.Alex Ridgers · Sep 24 · up — Clients are overwhelmingly long the S&P, their biggest position, expecting index moves to continue.Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · down — Razaqzada sees a deeper correction in the S&P 500 as increasingly credible, with the index likely to head lower.Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · down — He expects parts of the market to crash before a full-blown 2022-style downturn, with 2027 worse than 2022.Ted Oakley · Sep 24 · down — Oakley warns the average S&P sector is down 18-19% from its high and the index is dangerously concentrated in the top 10 names, so a big corrective move is coming.Michael Lebowitz · Sep 26 · down — The S&P may fall or trickle off given extreme dispersion and narrow leadership.Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · down — Brooks says the S&P 500 is the worst hedge and falls when oil prices rise.Adam Taggart · Sep 27 · down — He thinks the odds of the stock market continuing to deliver strong gains over the next couple of years are low.Bill Smead · Sep 27 · down — Smead expects the S&P 500 to be lower a decade from now, calling the odds of it being higher almost zero.Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · down — He expects the S&P bubble to break or at least stumble, which would drive money into gold stocks.David Hunter · Oct 1 · up — Hunter targets the S&P 500 at 10,000, roughly 30% higher, within three to six months.Ed Zitron · Oct 1 · down — The S&P 500 is far too weighted toward big tech and the rest of its constituents lack cash flows.Patrick Ceresna · Oct 1 · down — Ceresna sees broad equity correction risk, with the median S&P 500 stock 16% off highs and breadth collapsing.The Kobeissi Letter · Oct 1 · up — Seasonality is turning more favorable for stocks, with history pointing to stronger equity returns ahead.Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · down — Expects a sizable risk-off with highly correlated beta selling hitting risk assets before the election.David Hay · Oct 2 · down — Expects terrible market breadth to lead to a very severe bear market.Eric Balchunas · Oct 2 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to hit a new all-time high.Stephanie Guild · Oct 2 · down — Says her target was around 6,500 with give or take 100 points, and she is surprised the index has held up so well.Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · down — Expects the downside in the market to be wrapped up only when the big names are sold off, which he suspects happens in 2027.Lance Roberts · Oct 3 · up — Expects the next move in the markets to be higher over the course of the year.James Stanley · Oct 5 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to keep melting up, treating pullbacks as buy-the-dip opportunities.The Kobeissi Letter · Oct 5 · down — Expects further weakness in the S&P 500 given historically weak October market breadth.Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575.Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · down — Sees a major meltdown coming and is looking to get short, though not until the market signals a top.Fiona Cincotta · Oct 7 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to break above 7,840 and target 7,900 and 8,000.Jonny Matthews | SuperMacro · Oct 7 · down — Expects rising equity supply to act as a headwind, or at least a brake, on the S&P 500.Mike McGlone · Oct 8 · down — Expects the S&P 500 to break and drop 10-20%, calling it a matter of when, not if.James Stanley · Oct 9 · up — Expects S&P 500 bullish continuation, with pullbacks seen as opportunistic buying.Lance Roberts · Oct 9 · up — Expects the cap-weighted S&P 500 to be flat to modestly higher into year-end, with the strongest gains in the equal-weighted index.
S&P 500, 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-09, where the desk's voices took positions7,7007,800Oct 1Jurrien Timmer · Sep 22 · down — Timmer sees no catalyst for the bull market's next up leg, with the index churning without lasting progress since early June.Alex Ridgers · Sep 24 · up — Clients are overwhelmingly long the S&P, their biggest position, expecting index moves to continue.Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · down — Razaqzada sees a deeper correction in the S&P 500 as increasingly credible, with the index likely to head lower.Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · down — He expects parts of the market to crash before a full-blown 2022-style downturn, with 2027 worse than 2022.Ted Oakley · Sep 24 · down — Oakley warns the average S&P sector is down 18-19% from its high and the index is dangerously concentrated in the top 10 names, so a big corrective move is coming.Michael Lebowitz · Sep 26 · down — The S&P may fall or trickle off given extreme dispersion and narrow leadership.Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · down — Brooks says the S&P 500 is the worst hedge and falls when oil prices rise.Adam Taggart · Sep 27 · down — He thinks the odds of the stock market continuing to deliver strong gains over the next couple of years are low.Bill Smead · Sep 27 · down — Smead expects the S&P 500 to be lower a decade from now, calling the odds of it being higher almost zero.Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · down — He expects the S&P bubble to break or at least stumble, which would drive money into gold stocks.David Hunter · Oct 1 · up — Hunter targets the S&P 500 at 10,000, roughly 30% higher, within three to six months.Ed Zitron · Oct 1 · down — The S&P 500 is far too weighted toward big tech and the rest of its constituents lack cash flows.Patrick Ceresna · Oct 1 · down — Ceresna sees broad equity correction risk, with the median S&P 500 stock 16% off highs and breadth collapsing.The Kobeissi Letter · Oct 1 · up — Seasonality is turning more favorable for stocks, with history pointing to stronger equity returns ahead.Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · down — Expects a sizable risk-off with highly correlated beta selling hitting risk assets before the election.David Hay · Oct 2 · down — Expects terrible market breadth to lead to a very severe bear market.Eric Balchunas · Oct 2 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to hit a new all-time high.Stephanie Guild · Oct 2 · down — Says her target was around 6,500 with give or take 100 points, and she is surprised the index has held up so well.Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · down — Expects the downside in the market to be wrapped up only when the big names are sold off, which he suspects happens in 2027.Lance Roberts · Oct 3 · up — Expects the next move in the markets to be higher over the course of the year.James Stanley · Oct 5 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to keep melting up, treating pullbacks as buy-the-dip opportunities.The Kobeissi Letter · Oct 5 · down — Expects further weakness in the S&P 500 given historically weak October market breadth.Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575.Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · down — Sees a major meltdown coming and is looking to get short, though not until the market signals a top.Fiona Cincotta · Oct 7 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to break above 7,840 and target 7,900 and 8,000.Jonny Matthews | SuperMacro · Oct 7 · down — Expects rising equity supply to act as a headwind, or at least a brake, on the S&P 500.Mike McGlone · Oct 8 · down — Expects the S&P 500 to break and drop 10-20%, calling it a matter of when, not if.James Stanley · Oct 9 · up — Expects S&P 500 bullish continuation, with pullbacks seen as opportunistic buying.Lance Roberts · Oct 9 · up — Expects the cap-weighted S&P 500 to be flat to modestly higher into year-end, with the strongest gains in the equal-weighted index.
S&P 500, 2026-07-14 to 2026-10-09, with 25 desk voices' positions7,4007,6007,800Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 15 · up — Historically the S&P 500 dips after the first Fed hike but recovers and gains over 6-12 months, making hikes good buying opportunities.Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · down — The S&P 500 is flat to slightly down after the hike and hawkish press conference.The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 16 · up — The AI boom is providing substantial support for the S&P 500, and a resolution to the energy crisis would open the way for it to rise well above 8,000.Jurrien Timmer · Sep 22 · down — Timmer sees no catalyst for the bull market's next up leg, with the index churning without lasting progress since early June.Alex Ridgers · Sep 24 · up — Clients are overwhelmingly long the S&P, their biggest position, expecting index moves to continue.Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · down — Razaqzada sees a deeper correction in the S&P 500 as increasingly credible, with the index likely to head lower.Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · down — He expects parts of the market to crash before a full-blown 2022-style downturn, with 2027 worse than 2022.Ted Oakley · Sep 24 · down — Oakley warns the average S&P sector is down 18-19% from its high and the index is dangerously concentrated in the top 10 names, so a big corrective move is coming.Michael Lebowitz · Sep 26 · down — The S&P may fall or trickle off given extreme dispersion and narrow leadership.Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · down — Brooks says the S&P 500 is the worst hedge and falls when oil prices rise.Adam Taggart · Sep 27 · down — He thinks the odds of the stock market continuing to deliver strong gains over the next couple of years are low.Bill Smead · Sep 27 · down — Smead expects the S&P 500 to be lower a decade from now, calling the odds of it being higher almost zero.Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · down — He expects the S&P bubble to break or at least stumble, which would drive money into gold stocks.David Hunter · Oct 1 · up — Hunter targets the S&P 500 at 10,000, roughly 30% higher, within three to six months.Ed Zitron · Oct 1 · down — The S&P 500 is far too weighted toward big tech and the rest of its constituents lack cash flows.Patrick Ceresna · Oct 1 · down — Ceresna sees broad equity correction risk, with the median S&P 500 stock 16% off highs and breadth collapsing.The Kobeissi Letter · Oct 1 · up — Seasonality is turning more favorable for stocks, with history pointing to stronger equity returns ahead.Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · down — Expects a sizable risk-off with highly correlated beta selling hitting risk assets before the election.David Hay · Oct 2 · down — Expects terrible market breadth to lead to a very severe bear market.Eric Balchunas · Oct 2 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to hit a new all-time high.Stephanie Guild · Oct 2 · down — Says her target was around 6,500 with give or take 100 points, and she is surprised the index has held up so well.Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · down — Expects the downside in the market to be wrapped up only when the big names are sold off, which he suspects happens in 2027.Lance Roberts · Oct 3 · up — Expects the next move in the markets to be higher over the course of the year.James Stanley · Oct 5 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to keep melting up, treating pullbacks as buy-the-dip opportunities.The Kobeissi Letter · Oct 5 · down — Expects further weakness in the S&P 500 given historically weak October market breadth.Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575.Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · down — Sees a major meltdown coming and is looking to get short, though not until the market signals a top.Fiona Cincotta · Oct 7 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to break above 7,840 and target 7,900 and 8,000.Jonny Matthews | SuperMacro · Oct 7 · down — Expects rising equity supply to act as a headwind, or at least a brake, on the S&P 500.Mike McGlone · Oct 8 · down — Expects the S&P 500 to break and drop 10-20%, calling it a matter of when, not if.James Stanley · Oct 9 · up — Expects S&P 500 bullish continuation, with pullbacks seen as opportunistic buying.Lance Roberts · Oct 9 · up — Expects the cap-weighted S&P 500 to be flat to modestly higher into year-end, with the strongest gains in the equal-weighted index.

S&P 500 rose from 7,544 to 7,812 since Jul 14. The desk's voices, as each stands now: 7 bullish, 18 bearish.

Their record

○AI companies to generate ~$3.5 trillion in annual revenue by 2032: The Kobeissi Letter.
○OpenAI+Anthropic together to reach $1trn in ARR by 2045: Bob Elliott.
○Oracle downgraded to junk: steph pomboy.

What settles next

Near the mark

○ Open · by Dec 31

Gareth Soloway: “S&P 500 to 8,000 by year end”

S&P 500 with Gareth Soloway's target ≥ 8,0007,2507,5007,7508,000Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1target ≥ 8,000Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575.
They said
Oct 6: Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575.
Distance
7,812 now, +2.4% to go by Dec 31.
source ↗
○ Open · no deadline

Fiona Cincotta: “S&P 500 to reach the 8,000 psychological level”

S&P 500 with Fiona Cincotta's target ≥ 8,0007,2507,5007,7508,000Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1target ≥ 8,000Fiona Cincotta · Oct 7 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to break above 7,840 and target 7,900 and 8,000.
They said
Oct 7: Expects the S&P 500 to break above 7,840 and target 7,900 and 8,000.
Distance
7,812 now, +2.4% to go.
source ↗
1 AprS&P 500 · Thu 2027
David Hunter: “S&P 500 to 10,000 within three to six months” (Oct 1). S&P 500 is at 7,812, +28.0% to go.Settles on the close of Apr 1 (S&P 500).
27 SepS&P 500 · Sat 2036
Bill Smead: “S&P 500 lower in 10 years” (Sep 27). S&P 500 is at 7,812.Settles on the close of Sep 27 (S&P 500).
No date6-month check
Mike McGlone: “S&P 500 to drop 20%” (Oct 8) · S&P 500 ≤ 6,212No deadline was given, so each is judged six months after it was said.

The voices

Bob Elliott

Semiconductors and hyperscalers may see AI demand but there's no demonstrated connection to who will pay, and meeting expectations would require non-tech companies to devote their free cash flow to AI by 2030.43

GC

Grant Cardone

Capital and construction labor will continue flowing into data centers, so infrastructure demand should persist.35

The Kobeissi Letter

A basket of 42 AI stocks has generated the majority of the S&P 500’s price return, earnings growth, and most capex and R&D growth since 2024, highlighting concentration risk.33

DP

Danielle Park

Technology’s concentration has been damaging historically and the rapid buildout of AI capacity risks reducing revenue per user and sustainability.37

JF

John Feneck

The market shows very narrow leadership with MAG-7 style concentration, echoing 2008-era risks for broadly held indexes.26

PS

Peter Schiff

U.S. consumer confidence is at historic lows according to the University of Michigan, suggesting economic fragility amid these market dynamics.35

JS

James Stanley

Price action has made fresh all-time highs despite worrying under-the-surface indicators, so reversal signals are not yet present but risks exist.10

Bloomberg

The market is repricing risks around AI-related investments and that could lead to more discipline in financing, per DBS CEO Tan Su Shan.22

5 of this desk's 18 voices spoke · Quiet: Adam Tooze, Arnaud Bertrand, Ben Carlson, Brent Johnson, Ed Zitron, Eric Balchunas, Erik Townsend, Evan, Geiger Capital, Grant Williams, Kaiser Kuo, Max Wiethe, Michael Liebreich - @MLiebreich.bsky.social

More from the desk

AI investment, valuation and concentrationSeveral commentators characterised the AI boom as late-stage or vulnerable: Bloomberg Opinion described Masayoshi Son’s ambition as a warning, while market commentary pointed to historically narrow leadership and AI stocks’ disproportionate contribution to index returns and investment growth. James Stanley nevertheless said the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were still making highs and saw no current technical reason to expect an S&P reversal.

Several commentators characterised the AI boom as late-stage or vulnerable: Bloomberg Opinion described Masayoshi Son’s ambition as a warning, while market commentary pointed to historically narrow leadership and AI stocks’ disproportionate contribution to index returns and investment growth 3133. James Stanley nevertheless said the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were still making highs and saw no current technical reason to expect an S&P reversal 10.

Financing, infrastructure and who paysThe sources stressed the scale and risks of AI infrastructure spending: power and construction costs were highlighted for data centres, and DBS CEO Tan Su Shan said markets were repricing investment risks toward more disciplined financing. Bob Elliott argued that AI demand claims lacked a clear link to who would fund them, while Grant Cardone said capital and labour would continue moving into data-centre construction.

The sources stressed the scale and risks of AI infrastructure spending: power and construction costs were highlighted for data centres 34, and DBS CEO Tan Su Shan said markets were repricing investment risks toward more disciplined financing 22. Bob Elliott argued that AI demand claims lacked a clear link to who would fund them, while Grant Cardone said capital and labour would continue moving into data-centre construction 4335.

Company activity and commercialisationThe pool covered Amazon’s reported negotiations to acquire Decart AI at a valuation of around $7 billion, and OpenAI’s possible first-half IPO alongside disputed interpretations of its revenue figures and run rate. Meta-related early data on the usefulness of its Muse AI agent was described as promising, though investors were said to need proof.

The pool covered Amazon’s reported negotiations to acquire Decart AI at a valuation of around $7 billion 29, and OpenAI’s possible first-half IPO alongside disputed interpretations of its revenue figures and run rate 8. Meta-related early data on the usefulness of its Muse AI agent was described as promising, though investors were said to need proof 6.

AI’s economic and social effectsAlexandra Mousavizadeh said AI could become the biggest job generator in decades, opposing the job-apocalypse narrative. Bloomberg also reported anxiety about catastrophic AI risks and calls for safeguards, while noting little agreement on the next steps; separate commentary warned that the technology may still be immature.

Alexandra Mousavizadeh said AI could become the biggest job generator in decades, opposing the job-apocalypse narrative 12. Bloomberg also reported anxiety about catastrophic AI risks and calls for safeguards, while noting little agreement on the next steps; separate commentary warned that the technology may still be immature 213.

Chips and spilloversJohn Feneck discussed critical-material supply constraints and technology for cooling AI data centres, while the pool also included reporting on Chinese progress in a memory-chip transistor design.

John Feneck discussed critical-material supply constraints and technology for cooling AI data centres, while the pool also included reporting on Chinese progress in a memory-chip transistor design 2624.

Earlier editions

Oct 15 AI demand was still described as powerful, but financing, valuation and growth concerns drove a clear split be › Oct 14 The central dispute was not whether AI demand exists, but whether infrastructure profits and semiconductor pri › Oct 13 The central dispute was whether AI earnings and infrastructure demand can justify continued optimism despite r › Oct 11 The central claim was that AI investment and valuations look vulnerable if growth and revenue fail to accelera › Oct 10 AI demand was portrayed as powerful but increasingly vulnerable to revenue opacity, infrastructure constraints › Oct 9 The central dispute was whether AI’s enormous infrastructure buildout reflects durable demand or an increasing › Oct 8 AI infrastructure enthusiasm is colliding with rising leverage, concentration and bubble concerns. › Oct 6 AI investment and infrastructure momentum remained strong, but financing, demand, valuation and cybersecurity ›