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AI Industry & Chips

Sample
Oct 14 · 14 voices
i

About this edition

33 items · printed Oct 14, 15:24 ET

Tap any number in the text for its receipt — who said it, when, and the clip.

A sample edition, written from this desk's voices for everyone. Your own paper is written only from the voices you pick.

The central dispute was not whether AI demand exists, but whether infrastructure profits and semiconductor pricing can endure as supply and competition expand.

S&P 500 7,714 −1.2%closes of Oct 14

The period focused on whether AI infrastructure demand can sustain its financing, earnings and valuation cycle. Peter Berezin saw continued data-centre demand but warned that margins, token prices and eventual supply growth could expose an AI bust 31, while Thomas Hayes argued the semiconductor portion of the trade is already rolling over even as AI adoption continues 6. Sources also highlighted constraints in energy, labour and chips 2229, Nvidia’s planned European investment 2033, and legal and national-security issues involving Anthropic 10. Followed topics including Advanced Micro Devices, AI infrastructure, banks, Broadcom, DeepSeek, IPOs as a general topic, regulation, revenue, Salesforce, Sam Altman, semiconductors and technology received no attention in the supplied pool 6102022293133.

+914 voices

What happened

Peter Berezin judged AI capex and data-center demand likely to continue for another 12–24 months while warning margins and token prices could expose a future AI bust.31

1 of 14

Thomas Hayes argued the commodity semiconductor portion of the AI trade is already rolling over as memory capacity, competition and falling chip prices pressure related stocks.6

1 of 14

Nvidia plans roughly $2 billion of new European AI investments and Jensen Huang urged Europe to accelerate AI development with emphasis on open-source models and robotics.2033

0 of 14
Show 1 moreShow fewer

Bloomberg and New York Fed commentary highlighted constraints on AI infrastructure from chip prices, construction costs, energy and skilled labor.2229

2 of 14

“AI is just getting started”

TH Thomas HayesOct 13 ▶ 5:24

Where they disagree

How durable is the AI boom and its market trade?

PB

AI demand durable short-term31

1 voice

TH

Commodity chip trade rolling over6

1 voice

The desk

How the desk is calling it

17 of 29 voices lean bearish on S&P 500. Next to settle: S&P 500 on Apr 1, David Hunter's call; 5 calls open.

Where they stand · S&P 500

i

Reading the chart

  • bullish
  • bearish
  • range-bound

S&P 500 · Google Finance

An arrow is one voice's position on the day they took it. Hover or tap an arrow for who it was and what they said.

S&P 500, 2026-09-14 to 2026-10-14, where the desk's voices took positions7,6007,7007,800Sep 15Oct 1The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 15 · up — Historically the S&P 500 dips after the first Fed hike but recovers and gains over 6-12 months, making hikes good buying opportunities.Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · down — The S&P 500 is flat to slightly down after the hike and hawkish press conference.The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 16 · up — The AI boom is providing substantial support for the S&P 500, and a resolution to the energy crisis would open the way for it to rise well above 8,000.Jurrien Timmer · Sep 22 · down — Timmer sees no catalyst for the bull market's next up leg, with the index churning without lasting progress since early June.Alex Ridgers · Sep 24 · up — Clients are overwhelmingly long the S&P, their biggest position, expecting index moves to continue.Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · down — Razaqzada sees a deeper correction in the S&P 500 as increasingly credible, with the index likely to head lower.Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · down — He expects parts of the market to crash before a full-blown 2022-style downturn, with 2027 worse than 2022.Ted Oakley · Sep 24 · down — Oakley warns the average S&P sector is down 18-19% from its high and the index is dangerously concentrated in the top 10 names, so a big corrective move is coming.Michael Lebowitz · Sep 26 · down — The S&P may fall or trickle off given extreme dispersion and narrow leadership.Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · down — Brooks says the S&P 500 is the worst hedge and falls when oil prices rise.Adam Taggart · Sep 27 · down — He thinks the odds of the stock market continuing to deliver strong gains over the next couple of years are low.Bill Smead · Sep 27 · down — Smead expects the S&P 500 to be lower a decade from now, calling the odds of it being higher almost zero.Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · down — He expects the S&P bubble to break or at least stumble, which would drive money into gold stocks.David Hunter · Oct 1 · up — Hunter targets the S&P 500 at 10,000, roughly 30% higher, within three to six months.Ed Zitron · Oct 1 · down — The S&P 500 is far too weighted toward big tech and the rest of its constituents lack cash flows.Patrick Ceresna · Oct 1 · down — Ceresna sees broad equity correction risk, with the median S&P 500 stock 16% off highs and breadth collapsing.The Kobeissi Letter · Oct 1 · up — Seasonality is turning more favorable for stocks, with history pointing to stronger equity returns ahead.Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · down — Expects a sizable risk-off with highly correlated beta selling hitting risk assets before the election.David Hay · Oct 2 · down — Expects terrible market breadth to lead to a very severe bear market.Eric Balchunas · Oct 2 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to hit a new all-time high.Stephanie Guild · Oct 2 · down — Says her target was around 6,500 with give or take 100 points, and she is surprised the index has held up so well.Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · down — Expects the downside in the market to be wrapped up only when the big names are sold off, which he suspects happens in 2027.Lance Roberts · Oct 3 · up — Expects the next move in the markets to be higher over the course of the year.James Stanley · Oct 5 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to keep melting up, treating pullbacks as buy-the-dip opportunities.The Kobeissi Letter · Oct 5 · down — Expects further weakness in the S&P 500 given historically weak October market breadth.Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575.Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · down — Sees a major meltdown coming and is looking to get short, though not until the market signals a top.Fiona Cincotta · Oct 7 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to break above 7,840 and target 7,900 and 8,000.Jonny Matthews | SuperMacro · Oct 7 · down — Expects rising equity supply to act as a headwind, or at least a brake, on the S&P 500.Mike McGlone · Oct 8 · down — Expects the S&P 500 to break and drop 10-20%, calling it a matter of when, not if.James Stanley · Oct 9 · up — Expects S&P 500 bullish continuation, with pullbacks seen as opportunistic buying.Lance Roberts · Oct 10 · up — Expects the cap-weighted S&P 500 to be flat to modestly higher into year-end, with the strongest gains in the equal-weighted index.Charles Lemonides · Oct 12 · up — Expects the bull market to continue, with a blow-off top still ahead and the market potentially running another two to five years.The Kobeissi Letter · Oct 12 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to post another year of strong gains, based on the historical average Year 5 bull market return of +20.8%.Caleb Silver · Oct 13 · up — Expects higher share prices as long as the earnings parade continues.Cameron Dawson · Oct 13 · down — Expects earnings growth to slow in 2027, leaving less room to absorb macro headwinds and multiple compression.Robin Brooks · Oct 13 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to be the big winner as oil falls and France muddles along.Thomas Hayes · Oct 13 · steady — Expects the indices to be more subdued than people expect, rising only modestly while the 493 outperforms.
S&P 500, 2026-09-19 to 2026-10-14, where the desk's voices took positions7,7007,800Oct 1Jurrien Timmer · Sep 22 · down — Timmer sees no catalyst for the bull market's next up leg, with the index churning without lasting progress since early June.Alex Ridgers · Sep 24 · up — Clients are overwhelmingly long the S&P, their biggest position, expecting index moves to continue.Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · down — Razaqzada sees a deeper correction in the S&P 500 as increasingly credible, with the index likely to head lower.Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · down — He expects parts of the market to crash before a full-blown 2022-style downturn, with 2027 worse than 2022.Ted Oakley · Sep 24 · down — Oakley warns the average S&P sector is down 18-19% from its high and the index is dangerously concentrated in the top 10 names, so a big corrective move is coming.Michael Lebowitz · Sep 26 · down — The S&P may fall or trickle off given extreme dispersion and narrow leadership.Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · down — Brooks says the S&P 500 is the worst hedge and falls when oil prices rise.Adam Taggart · Sep 27 · down — He thinks the odds of the stock market continuing to deliver strong gains over the next couple of years are low.Bill Smead · Sep 27 · down — Smead expects the S&P 500 to be lower a decade from now, calling the odds of it being higher almost zero.Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · down — He expects the S&P bubble to break or at least stumble, which would drive money into gold stocks.David Hunter · Oct 1 · up — Hunter targets the S&P 500 at 10,000, roughly 30% higher, within three to six months.Ed Zitron · Oct 1 · down — The S&P 500 is far too weighted toward big tech and the rest of its constituents lack cash flows.Patrick Ceresna · Oct 1 · down — Ceresna sees broad equity correction risk, with the median S&P 500 stock 16% off highs and breadth collapsing.The Kobeissi Letter · Oct 1 · up — Seasonality is turning more favorable for stocks, with history pointing to stronger equity returns ahead.Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · down — Expects a sizable risk-off with highly correlated beta selling hitting risk assets before the election.David Hay · Oct 2 · down — Expects terrible market breadth to lead to a very severe bear market.Eric Balchunas · Oct 2 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to hit a new all-time high.Stephanie Guild · Oct 2 · down — Says her target was around 6,500 with give or take 100 points, and she is surprised the index has held up so well.Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · down — Expects the downside in the market to be wrapped up only when the big names are sold off, which he suspects happens in 2027.Lance Roberts · Oct 3 · up — Expects the next move in the markets to be higher over the course of the year.James Stanley · Oct 5 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to keep melting up, treating pullbacks as buy-the-dip opportunities.The Kobeissi Letter · Oct 5 · down — Expects further weakness in the S&P 500 given historically weak October market breadth.Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575.Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · down — Sees a major meltdown coming and is looking to get short, though not until the market signals a top.Fiona Cincotta · Oct 7 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to break above 7,840 and target 7,900 and 8,000.Jonny Matthews | SuperMacro · Oct 7 · down — Expects rising equity supply to act as a headwind, or at least a brake, on the S&P 500.Mike McGlone · Oct 8 · down — Expects the S&P 500 to break and drop 10-20%, calling it a matter of when, not if.James Stanley · Oct 9 · up — Expects S&P 500 bullish continuation, with pullbacks seen as opportunistic buying.Lance Roberts · Oct 10 · up — Expects the cap-weighted S&P 500 to be flat to modestly higher into year-end, with the strongest gains in the equal-weighted index.Charles Lemonides · Oct 12 · up — Expects the bull market to continue, with a blow-off top still ahead and the market potentially running another two to five years.The Kobeissi Letter · Oct 12 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to post another year of strong gains, based on the historical average Year 5 bull market return of +20.8%.Caleb Silver · Oct 13 · up — Expects higher share prices as long as the earnings parade continues.Cameron Dawson · Oct 13 · down — Expects earnings growth to slow in 2027, leaving less room to absorb macro headwinds and multiple compression.Robin Brooks · Oct 13 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to be the big winner as oil falls and France muddles along.Thomas Hayes · Oct 13 · steady — Expects the indices to be more subdued than people expect, rising only modestly while the 493 outperforms.
S&P 500, 2026-07-16 to 2026-10-14, with 29 desk voices' positions7,4007,6007,800Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 15 · up — Historically the S&P 500 dips after the first Fed hike but recovers and gains over 6-12 months, making hikes good buying opportunities.Robin Brooks · Sep 16 · down — The S&P 500 is flat to slightly down after the hike and hawkish press conference.The Kobeissi Letter · Sep 16 · up — The AI boom is providing substantial support for the S&P 500, and a resolution to the energy crisis would open the way for it to rise well above 8,000.Jurrien Timmer · Sep 22 · down — Timmer sees no catalyst for the bull market's next up leg, with the index churning without lasting progress since early June.Alex Ridgers · Sep 24 · up — Clients are overwhelmingly long the S&P, their biggest position, expecting index moves to continue.Fawad Razaqzada · Sep 24 · down — Razaqzada sees a deeper correction in the S&P 500 as increasingly credible, with the index likely to head lower.Keith McCullough · Sep 24 · down — He expects parts of the market to crash before a full-blown 2022-style downturn, with 2027 worse than 2022.Ted Oakley · Sep 24 · down — Oakley warns the average S&P sector is down 18-19% from its high and the index is dangerously concentrated in the top 10 names, so a big corrective move is coming.Michael Lebowitz · Sep 26 · down — The S&P may fall or trickle off given extreme dispersion and narrow leadership.Robin Brooks · Sep 26 · down — Brooks says the S&P 500 is the worst hedge and falls when oil prices rise.Adam Taggart · Sep 27 · down — He thinks the odds of the stock market continuing to deliver strong gains over the next couple of years are low.Bill Smead · Sep 27 · down — Smead expects the S&P 500 to be lower a decade from now, calling the odds of it being higher almost zero.Lawrence Lepard · Sep 29 · down — He expects the S&P bubble to break or at least stumble, which would drive money into gold stocks.David Hunter · Oct 1 · up — Hunter targets the S&P 500 at 10,000, roughly 30% higher, within three to six months.Ed Zitron · Oct 1 · down — The S&P 500 is far too weighted toward big tech and the rest of its constituents lack cash flows.Patrick Ceresna · Oct 1 · down — Ceresna sees broad equity correction risk, with the median S&P 500 stock 16% off highs and breadth collapsing.The Kobeissi Letter · Oct 1 · up — Seasonality is turning more favorable for stocks, with history pointing to stronger equity returns ahead.Craig Shapiro · Oct 2 · down — Expects a sizable risk-off with highly correlated beta selling hitting risk assets before the election.David Hay · Oct 2 · down — Expects terrible market breadth to lead to a very severe bear market.Eric Balchunas · Oct 2 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to hit a new all-time high.Stephanie Guild · Oct 2 · down — Says her target was around 6,500 with give or take 100 points, and she is surprised the index has held up so well.Ted Oakley · Oct 2 · down — Expects the downside in the market to be wrapped up only when the big names are sold off, which he suspects happens in 2027.Lance Roberts · Oct 3 · up — Expects the next move in the markets to be higher over the course of the year.James Stanley · Oct 5 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to keep melting up, treating pullbacks as buy-the-dip opportunities.The Kobeissi Letter · Oct 5 · down — Expects further weakness in the S&P 500 given historically weak October market breadth.Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575.Todd Horwitz · Oct 6 · down — Sees a major meltdown coming and is looking to get short, though not until the market signals a top.Fiona Cincotta · Oct 7 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to break above 7,840 and target 7,900 and 8,000.Jonny Matthews | SuperMacro · Oct 7 · down — Expects rising equity supply to act as a headwind, or at least a brake, on the S&P 500.Mike McGlone · Oct 8 · down — Expects the S&P 500 to break and drop 10-20%, calling it a matter of when, not if.James Stanley · Oct 9 · up — Expects S&P 500 bullish continuation, with pullbacks seen as opportunistic buying.Lance Roberts · Oct 10 · up — Expects the cap-weighted S&P 500 to be flat to modestly higher into year-end, with the strongest gains in the equal-weighted index.Charles Lemonides · Oct 12 · up — Expects the bull market to continue, with a blow-off top still ahead and the market potentially running another two to five years.The Kobeissi Letter · Oct 12 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to post another year of strong gains, based on the historical average Year 5 bull market return of +20.8%.Caleb Silver · Oct 13 · up — Expects higher share prices as long as the earnings parade continues.Cameron Dawson · Oct 13 · down — Expects earnings growth to slow in 2027, leaving less room to absorb macro headwinds and multiple compression.Robin Brooks · Oct 13 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to be the big winner as oil falls and France muddles along.Thomas Hayes · Oct 13 · steady — Expects the indices to be more subdued than people expect, rising only modestly while the 493 outperforms.

S&P 500 rose from 7,534 to 7,714 since Jul 16. The desk's voices, as each stands now: 11 bullish, 17 bearish, 1 range-bound.

Their record

○US fiscal deficit to widen to -6.1% of GDP in 2027: The Kobeissi Letter.
○AI CapEx boom peaks around 2028, stocks peak in 2027: Peter Berezin.
○S&P 500 heading for another year of strong gains: The Kobeissi Letter.

What settles next

Near the mark

○ Open · by Dec 31

Gareth Soloway: “S&P 500 to 8,000 by year end”

S&P 500 with Gareth Soloway's target ≥ 8,0007,2507,5007,7508,000Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1target ≥ 8,000Gareth Soloway · Oct 6 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575.
They said
Oct 6: Expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year end, staying bullish above 7,575.
Distance
7,714 now, +3.7% to go by Dec 31.
source ↗
○ Open · no deadline

Fiona Cincotta: “S&P 500 to reach the 8,000 psychological level”

S&P 500 with Fiona Cincotta's target ≥ 8,0007,2507,5007,7508,000Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1target ≥ 8,000Fiona Cincotta · Oct 7 · up — Expects the S&P 500 to break above 7,840 and target 7,900 and 8,000.
They said
Oct 7: Expects the S&P 500 to break above 7,840 and target 7,900 and 8,000.
Distance
7,714 now, +3.7% to go.
source ↗
1 AprS&P 500 · Thu 2027
David Hunter: “S&P 500 to 10,000 within three to six months” (Oct 1). S&P 500 is at 7,714, +29.6% to go.Settles on the close of Apr 1 (S&P 500).
27 SepS&P 500 · Sat 2036
Bill Smead: “S&P 500 lower in 10 years” (Sep 27). S&P 500 is at 7,714.Settles on the close of Sep 27 (S&P 500).
No date6-month check
Mike McGlone: “S&P 500 to drop 20%” (Oct 8) · S&P 500 ≤ 6,212No deadline was given, so each is judged six months after it was said.

The voices

PB

Peter Berezin

Data-center compute is scarce, GPU rental and memory prices are elevated, and AI capex likely continues 12–24 months though margins and token pricing risk a later bust.31

TH

Thomas Hayes

AI adoption will raise productivity but the commodity semiconductor trade is ending as high prices prompt capacity additions that will crush margins and chip stocks.6

Bloomberg

Coverage flagged investor doubts about whether AI data-center developers can generate much shareholder value and reported constraints including energy and skilled labor.1429

Walter Bloomberg

The New York Fed says AI infrastructure demand is pushing up chip prices and construction costs, keeping supply tight for years and feeding inflationary pressure.22

7 of this desk's 18 voices spoke · Quiet: Adam Tooze, Arnaud Bertrand, Ben Carlson, Brent Johnson, Dan Nathan, Eric Balchunas, Erik Townsend, Evan, Grant Williams, Kaiser Kuo, Michael Liebreich - @MLiebreich.bsky.social

On the record

AIAlexander De Croo, Wolf Richter +17

Alexander De Croo Sees technology including AI as an incredible accelerator of development, with the upside outweighing the downside.↗

Wolf Richter Expects AI-related stocks to suffer a major sell-off of 80-90% when AI spending slows.↗

Ben Inker Expects the AI bubble to burst, with equity supply as the catalyst over the next 12 to 18 months.↗

Deirdre Bosa Expects AI adoption to keep rising, which is positive for AI as long as adoption continues.↗

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Thomas Hayes Bullish on AI beneficiaries, expecting the technology to increase productivity, margins and GDP growth long term, while avoiding the capex-financed side.↗

Peter Berezin Expects the AI CapEx boom to turn to bust, with stocks peaking around 2027 and CapEx peaking around 2028.↗

@profplum99 Expects AI to keep changing the economy, dismissing the 'never different this time' view.↗

Danielle Park Expects AI revenue per user to keep declining as capacity buildout continues.↗

Bob Elliott Expects the AI demand story to fail, since it would require all non-tech companies to bet their entire free cashflow on AI by 2030.↗

Jordi Visser Expects the AI trade to keep climbing, saying the ride is just beginning despite bubble talk.↗

Joseph Wang Believes AI is a huge bubble but expects it can go much higher, with the only way out being some kind of blow-off.↗

Chris Marcus Expects AI progress and productivity gains to accelerate and cannot be stopped.↗

The Kobeissi Letter Expects AI to become one of the largest spending categories in the US economy, with AI companies generating ~$3.5 trillion in annual revenue by 2032.↗

Afra Wang Expects AI to be the force that takes China to its next industrial upgrade, which is why people rush to adopt it.↗

Luke Gromen Expects the AI productivity miracle to disappoint — it is not going to plan.↗

Brent Johnson Expects AI to be a step-change positive for humanity over the long arc, though with short-term unemployment bumps.↗

jim iuorio Expects the AI trade to keep running as a mania driving the economy and share prices, though he warns it is a bubble that will eventually burst.↗

Adam Taggart Believes AI will unlock gargantuan opportunity for the entrepreneurial-minded, and expects it to be deflationary if it plays out.↗

Stacy Rasgon Expects AI demand to be real and to keep strengthening, with returns on the investment materializing.↗

USSteve H. Hanke, Alasdair Macleod +13

Steve H. Hanke Expects no US recession anytime soon because the money supply is still growing.↗

Alasdair Macleod Expects the US Treasury to inflate away its debt, implying a massive devaluation of the dollar.↗

ʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹq Expects the US economy to wobble if financial conditions around AI capex deteriorate, since it rests on a single AI-driven story.↗

Wolf Richter Expects the US economy to keep running hot, with strong nominal growth and inflation staying elevated.↗

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Robin Wigglesworth Expects the US economy to keep growing at a fast rate and does not worry about the US going bust anytime soon.↗

The Kobeissi Letter Expects the US fiscal deficit to widen to -6.1% of GDP in 2027, the largest among major developed economies.↗

Ananth Krishnan Expects India-US relations to remain difficult for now, though the relationship stays important to India.↗

Tavi Costa Expects the US to inflate its way out of its debt problem rather than deflate, with a 75-80% probability.↗

Grant Cardone Expects the US economy to enter the greatest economic expansion since the Industrial Revolution, and to be deflationary rather than inflationary.↗

Peter Schiff Expects higher rates to create a lot of problems in the US economy, which was built on real estate.↗

Richard D. Wolff Expects American politics and consciousness to tilt back toward government actively improving average people's lives, with more socialists winning office in US cities.↗

Nate Donnay Expects US milk production growth to stay above 2% as the herd expansion supports output.↗

Luke Gromen Expects an austerity-driven US recession to trigger debt collapse, banking system collapse and hyperinflation versus gold.↗

Brent Johnson Expects the U.S. to consolidate power and remain the dominant global power rather than decline, likening it to Republican Rome becoming the Empire.↗

Jurrien Timmer Expects US earnings and payout growth to be peaking, with the second derivative due to roll over.↗

S&P 500Cameron Dawson, Alasdair Macleod +9

Cameron Dawson Expects the market to roll over and break down before earnings estimates do.↗

Alasdair Macleod Expects the equity market bubble to implode, with the S&P 500 unable to hold its record levels.↗

Ben Inker Expects the market to do about 4% worse per percent of market cap coming in via IPO, implying roughly 24% worse than normal with 6% supply.↗

Thomas Hayes Expects the indices to be more subdued than people expect, rising only modestly while the 493 outperforms.↗

Show 7 moreShow fewer

Robin Brooks Expects the S&P 500 to be the big winner as oil falls and France muddles along.↗

Caleb Silver Expects higher share prices as long as the earnings parade continues.↗

The Kobeissi Letter Expects the S&P 500 to post another year of strong gains, based on the historical average Year 5 bull market return of +20.8%.↗

Charles Lemonides Expects the bull market to continue, with a blow-off top still ahead and the market potentially running another two to five years.↗

Lance Roberts Expects the cap-weighted S&P 500 to be flat to modestly higher into year-end, with the strongest gains in the equal-weighted index.↗

James Stanley Expects S&P 500 bullish continuation, with pullbacks seen as opportunistic buying.↗

Mike McGlone Expects the S&P 500 to break and drop 10-20%, calling it a matter of when, not if.↗

data centersBen Inker, Charles Lemonides +5

Ben Inker Expects the world will over-invest in data centers, producing giant write-offs.↗

Charles Lemonides Expects the data center growth to keep going and not slow down anytime soon.↗

Grant Cardone Expects labor and institutional money to flood into data center construction.↗

Nate Hagens Expects data center load and appetite for energy and materials to keep growing.↗

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Ed Zitron Expects the promised data center capacity, including Firmus's, not to be built.↗

Luke Gromen Expects electricity costs to keep rising as data centers are built around him.↗

Stacy Rasgon Expects data center capacity build-outs to continue and be used, with local backlash not stopping progress.↗

Apple Inc.Deirdre Bosa, Guy Adami +1

Deirdre Bosa Expects Apple's eventual personal-assistant product to take the market given its distribution and trust.↗

Guy Adami Expects Apple shares to break the uptrend line and back and fill toward the June low of 275.↗

Dan Nathan Sees the Apple order-cut story and weak guidance as pointing to a soft setup into earnings.↗

Micron TechnologyBen Inker, Cameron Dawson +1

Ben Inker Expects memory makers like Micron to see margins and revenue fall from cycle peaks, making them a poor investment.↗

Cameron Dawson Expects Micron's gross margin to come under pressure as capacity additions and Chinese competition hit memory prices.↗

Charles Lemonides Expects Micron's earnings to hold up for another couple of years and is letting the stock run, though less sure than two years ago.↗

NVIDIA CorporationAnthony Moreau, James Stanley +1

Anthony Moreau Expects NVIDIA to keep delivering steady gains, though not to become a $25 trillion company.↗

James Stanley Expects Nvidia to weaken, citing the weekly bearish engulfing and heavy profit-taking as the best evidence for a bubble bursting.↗

Stacy Rasgon Expects NVIDIA to grow revenue about 70% next year, with demand for 100%, and sees the stock as cheap if this is not a peak.↗

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OpenAI, L.P.Guy Adami, James Stanley +1

Guy Adami Sees OpenAI's aggressive revenue accounting as a serious red flag for a money-losing company at the center of the AI trade.↗

James Stanley Sees OpenAI's years of tapping debt markets as a massive debt load and growing strain while unprofitable.↗

Nate Hagens Sees ChatGPT access harming students' independent performance and leaking machine-preferred words into human speech.↗

Oracle CorporationBen Inker, Robin Wigglesworth +1

Ben Inker Sees Oracle as more exposed because the scale of what it is trying to do is big relative to its current business.↗

Robin Wigglesworth Sees Oracle as the standout weak borrower, the thinnest animal in the herd, among the hyperscalers.↗

Nate Hagens Sees Oracle's credit default swaps blowing out as a sign of growing hidden credit risk in the AI build-out.↗

AI infrastructureAdrian Day

Adrian Day Expects borrowing for AI build-outs and data centers to decline going forward.↗

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.Stacy Rasgon

Stacy Rasgon Likes AMD and sees it potentially doing $40-50 billion in AI revenue if it can ramp.↗

Amazon.com, Inc.Nate Hagens

Nate Hagens Criticizes Amazon for slicing up rare books to feed AI training data and destroying the physical copies.↗

Artificial IntelligenceNate Hagens

Nate Hagens Expects AI use to spread and become a defining social and political divide, with a small share of people working intensively with it and everyone else using it indirectly.↗

Broadcom Inc.Stacy Rasgon

Stacy Rasgon Expects Broadcom to grow revenues 100% next year and again the year after, with demand for more.↗

Microsoft CorporationBen Inker

Ben Inker Does not expect Microsoft to default on its debt even if data center returns disappoint.↗

Space Exploration Technologies Corp.The Kobeissi Letter

The Kobeissi Letter Expects SpaceX to disrupt the telecom and internet industry and upend the incumbent giants.↗

techDan Nathan

Dan Nathan Expects the stock market to eventually discount the ROIC on the AI data center buildout, hitting the big tech names funding it.↗

More from the desk

AI financing, monetisation and valuationBerezin said data centres remain profitable and compute is scarce, supporting another 12–24 months of AI capital expenditure, but argued that stocks could peak before capex and that margins may prove unsustainable as compute supply expands. He estimated that AI companies would need roughly $10 trillion in annual revenue to justify current data-centre capex, while OpenAI and Anthropic together generate only around $120–130 billion. Bloomberg also highlighted circular funding as accelerating the boom while amplifying imbalances.

Berezin said data centres remain profitable and compute is scarce, supporting another 12–24 months of AI capital expenditure, but argued that stocks could peak before capex and that margins may prove unsustainable as compute supply expands 31. He estimated that AI companies would need roughly $10 trillion in annual revenue to justify current data-centre capex, while OpenAI and Anthropic together generate only around $120–130 billion 31. Bloomberg also highlighted circular funding as accelerating the boom while amplifying imbalances 30.

Semiconductor cycle and AI winnersHayes argued that memory and semiconductor markets are cyclical commodities: high prices attract capacity and competition, eventually pressuring prices and stocks. He distinguished that trade from AI’s productivity potential, arguing that users implementing AI may capture more value than companies selling the infrastructure. Berezin similarly warned that elevated Micron, Nvidia and data-centre margins may fall as chip and compute supply increases.

Hayes argued that memory and semiconductor markets are cyclical commodities: high prices attract capacity and competition, eventually pressuring prices and stocks 6. He distinguished that trade from AI’s productivity potential, arguing that users implementing AI may capture more value than companies selling the infrastructure 6. Berezin similarly warned that elevated Micron, Nvidia and data-centre margins may fall as chip and compute supply increases 31.

Infrastructure constraints and debtThe sources described data-centre expansion as constrained by energy and skilled labour, with chip prices also being pushed higher by AI infrastructure demand. Wigglesworth said data-centre financing has transformed the debt market, including roughly $500–600 billion of direct bonds and more creative project financing, while warning that the technology industry is discovering the risks of debt.

The sources described data-centre expansion as constrained by energy and skilled labour, with chip prices also being pushed higher by AI infrastructure demand 2229. Wigglesworth said data-centre financing has transformed the debt market, including roughly $500–600 billion of direct bonds and more creative project financing, while warning that the technology industry is discovering the risks of debt 1.

Corporate, geopolitical and national-security developmentsNvidia planned $2 billion of European investment and urged Europe to accelerate AI development, including through open-source models, technological sovereignty and robotics. Anthropic was reported to be challenging its designation by the Trump administration as a US national-security supply-chain risk, while Bloomberg raised the possibility that orbital data centres could become attractive military targets.

Nvidia planned $2 billion of European investment and urged Europe to accelerate AI development, including through open-source models, technological sovereignty and robotics 2033. Anthropic was reported to be challenging its designation by the Trump administration as a US national-security supply-chain risk 10, while Bloomberg raised the possibility that orbital data centres could become attractive military targets 3.

Earlier editions

Oct 14 The central dispute was not whether AI demand exists, but whether infrastructure profits and semiconductor pri › Oct 13 The central dispute was whether AI earnings and infrastructure demand can justify continued optimism despite r › Oct 12 The central dispute was whether AI’s powerful market and infrastructure momentum reflects durable demand or a › Oct 11 The central claim was that AI investment and valuations look vulnerable if growth and revenue fail to accelera › Oct 10 AI demand was portrayed as powerful but increasingly vulnerable to revenue opacity, infrastructure constraints › Oct 9 The central dispute was whether AI’s enormous infrastructure buildout reflects durable demand or an increasing › Oct 8 AI infrastructure enthusiasm is colliding with rising leverage, concentration and bubble concerns. › Oct 6 AI investment and infrastructure momentum remained strong, but financing, demand, valuation and cybersecurity ›