France
France is being portrayed primarily as a fiscal and political stress point: weak growth, a large deficit and heavy debt are driving a sharp repricing of French government bonds 120. Commentators warn that France could transmit stress across Europe, although some officials and analysts say contagion is not yet evident, intervention is not justified, and France remains capable of addressing its problems 293551. Outside markets, discussion also covers protests linked to education administration and political fragmentation around Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella 4143.
From the window to Oct 14, 05:30 ET — this window's take is still to be written.
Where the voices land
All voices 7 voices5 worsening1 stable1 improving
Sharply worsening
- JBjeroen bloklandSharply worsening Expects France's prospects to worsen, calling it the euro zone's weakest link. “France has become the euro zone's weakest link.” Open the post The bar is high! Former ECB President Mario Dra… · 15 Oct
- AMAlasdair MacleodSharply worsening Expects France, in a debt trap with 115% debt-to-GDP, to be the poster boy for an unwinding sovereign debt crisis. “France is in a debt trap, and you want to see how it unwinds. I mean, just, you know, it's the poster boy for it” ▶ 17:51 Alasdair Macleod: Gold Could Explode as Fiat Cur… · 14 Oct
- PBPeter BoockvarSharply worsening Expects French yields to keep rising as investors push back on the country's excessive debt and deficits, with growth under 1%. “this recent gap up is all about their budget. It's all about many years of excessive spending” ▶ 6:53 Bond Market Dominoes: The Path to 6% Rates with … · 9 Oct
Worsening
- MHMichael HowellWorsening Expects France to keep spending and take on more debt, with no serious austerity possible amid unrest. “they're going to have to keep spending money, which means more debt” ▶ 31:22 MICHAEL HOWELL | Always buy the dip in monetary … · 14 Oct
- RWRobin WigglesworthWorsening Expects France's slow growth, heavy debt and big budget deficit to keep investors worried about French prospects. “France both has a lot of debt. It has a big budget deficit and it has very little growth.” ▶ 8:30 The Hater's Guide To Bonds With Rob Wigglesworth · 14 Oct
Stable
- RBRobin BrooksStable Expects France to muddle along. “for France to muddle along” Open the post My roadmap for how markets trade in the rest of … · 13 Oct
Improving
- TKThe Kobeissi LetterImproving Expects France's budget gap to widen to -5.2% of GDP. “France's budget gap is projected to widen to -5.2%” Open the post The global debt crisis is set to get even worse:… · 13 Oct
5 worsening1 stable1 improving
Also asked
Risk 6 voices← rising · easing →6 rising
Very high risk
- RBRobin BrooksVery high risk Sees France as an idiosyncratic risk factor for markets, with its yields decoupled from the rest of the world. “France is now in a league of its own and has morphed into an idiosyncratic risk factor for markets” Open the post French yields have completely decoupled from the… · 13 Oct
- JBjeroen bloklandVery high risk Says the bond market shows France is already in crisis, with the risk premium on French assets being reset. “The bond market is telling you that France is already in crisis” Open the post The spread on 10-year French government bonds ha… · 12 Oct
- WBWalter Bloomberg · on the show, speaker unnamedVery high risk Warns that France's debt problems could pose greater systemic risks to the eurozone than Greece's sovereign debt crisis, with risks rising. “France's debt problems could pose greater systemic risks to the eurozone than Greece's sovereign debt crisis” Open the post 🇫🇷 FRENCH DEBT CRISIS COULD POSE GREATER RISKS… · 9 Oct
- PBPeter BerezinVery high risk Expects the odds of a French fiscal crisis to keep rising given poor demographics and no political will to cut government spending. “Given France’s poor demographic outlook and lack of political will to cut the size of government, the odds of a fiscal crisis continue to rise.” Open the post As late as 2010, the total fertility rate in Fra… · 8 Oct
- DLDaniel LacalleVery high risk France's sovereign debt is riskier than 38% of the nation's company bonds — and he says even more than that. “France’s Sovereign Debt Is Riskier Than 38% of Nation’s Company Bonds. And I would say even more than 38%.” Open the post France’s Sovereign Debt Is Riskier Than 38% of N… · 8 Oct
High risk
- FCFiona CincottaHigh risk Sees the fiscal position and political gridlock and uncertainty in France as adding nerves to the market and lifting yields. ▶ 1:26 What U.S. CPI and Treasury Yields Mean for Bank … · 11 Oct
Mentions
71 this weekStories it travels in
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The stories
- ○ a voice, on the left
- ◌ a voice raising half of these
- ● a subject, on the right, under its story
- ⌒ a line is a voice raising a subject — thicker, more items; colour is the story
The stories this entity travels in: on the right, each story with the subjects seen alongside it; on the left, the voices that raised them, and a line for every subject a voice raised, bundled by story. Tap a voice to light everything it raises, a subject for who raised it, a story for its own lines. The crumb goes back.
Who brings it up
- Bloomberg 20 mentions
- Robin Brooks 10 mentions
- Walter Bloomberg 9 mentions
- Daniel Lacalle 4 mentions
- jeroen blokland 4 mentions
- The Kobeissi Letter 3 mentions
- David Lin 3 mentions
- Michael Every 3 mentions
See what your own voices say about France, every morning.
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