The Kobeissi Letter focused on surging bond yields, tightening financial conditions, and knock-on effects across assets, alongside concentrated AI-driven market dynamics and shifting macro/energy flows. They highlighted record- or multi-decade highs in US Treasury yields and global bond stress, deteriorating equity breadth, rising credit stress, and unusual precious metals volatility, while also flagging strong commodity inflation, widening US trade deficit, and recovering Persian Gulf crude exports amid ongoing refined fuel constraints 324653294024424931264. They emphasized AI’s outsized footprint in equity weights, funding and issuance, extreme bullish positioning in tech, and concentrated enterprise spending, as well as rapid growth in tokenized equities; they also raised practical risks from proliferating AI agents in commerce 2223413656.
From the window to Oct 5, 05:30 ET — this window's take is still to be written.
On the record
last 90 days · 50 positionsTheir calls
✓ 3✗ 2 5 settled · 1 still open
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✗ Missed
30-year fixed mortgage rate (Freddie Mac, weekly) at or above 8.00% by Oct 6 · mortgages
“Mortgage rates will hit 8% within a week.” — their words, paraphrased · said Sep 29 · settled Oct 6 the post ↗
It didn't: 30-year fixed mortgage rate (Freddie Mac, weekly) 7.28% on Oct 1.
The chart
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✓ Called it
10-year Treasury yield at or above 5.13% · US 10Y Note
“The 10Y yield is moving in a straight line higher to 5.13% and the move is unsustainable.” — their words, paraphrased · said Sep 23 · settled Sep 24 the post ↗
It did: 10-year Treasury yield 5.18% on Sep 24.
The chart
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✓ Called it
10-year Treasury yield at or above 5.00% · 10Y Note
“The 10Y Note yield is pushing toward 5.00%.” — their words, paraphrased · said Sep 10 · settled Sep 15 the post ↗
It did: 10-year Treasury yield 5.00% on Sep 15.
The chart
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✓ Called it
10-year Treasury yield at or above 5.00% by Sep 16 · 10Y Note
“The Kobeissi Letter expects the 10Y Note yield to keep rising, above 5.00% by next week absent an end to the Iran War.” — their words, paraphrased · said Sep 9 · settled Sep 15 the post ↗
It did: 10-year Treasury yield 5.00% on Sep 15.
The chart
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✗ Missed
WTI crude futures at or above $100.00 by Sep 11 · oil
“US oil prices are surging and will top $100 by Friday at the current pace.” — their words, paraphrased · said Sep 8 · settled Sep 11 the post ↗
It didn't: WTI crude futures $95.94 on Sep 11.
The chart
Still open
- ○ Open 30-year fixed mortgage rate (Freddie Mac, weekly) at or above 7.50% · mortgages “The Kobeissi Letter expects mortgage rates to climb above 7.5%.” — their words, paraphrased · said Sep 23 · no deadline given, judged Mar 24, 2027 the post ↗ Now 7.40% (Oct 15).
Read from their words, checked against market data, approved by a person. Misses show like hits.
Latest positions
- TKThe Kobeissi LetterSharply rising on US CPI inflation Expects US CPI inflation to keep rising, saying today's prices will look cheap in 12 to 24 months. “The prices Americans are seeing now will look cheap in 12 to 24 months.” Open the post Inflation is RED hot in the US. For anyone not … · 15 Oct
- TKThe Kobeissi LetterSharply rising on US PPI inflation Expects US PPI inflation to keep rising, saying today's prices will look cheap in 12 to 24 months. “The prices Americans are seeing now will look cheap in 12 to 24 months.” Open the post Inflation is RED hot in the US. For anyone not … · 15 Oct
- TKThe Kobeissi LetterBearish on Big AI Expects proprietary AI companies to face increasing pressure to lower prices, squeezing profit margins. “proprietary AI companies will face increasing pressure to lower prices” Open the post Open-source AI is undercutting Big AI's margins.… · 14 Oct
- TKThe Kobeissi LetterBearish on proprietary AI Expects proprietary AI companies to face increasing pressure to lower prices as cheaper alternatives improve. “As cheaper alternatives improve, proprietary AI companies will face increasing pressure to lower prices.” Open the post Open-source AI is undercutting Big AI's margins.… · 14 Oct
- TKThe Kobeissi LetterBullish on open-source AI Expects open-source AI to keep gaining ground, undercutting Big AI's margins. “Open-source AI is undercutting Big AI's margins.” Open the post Open-source AI is undercutting Big AI's margins.… · 14 Oct
- TKThe Kobeissi LetterSharply improving on Japan Expects Japan's fiscal deficit to more than triple, from -0.7% to -2.5% of GDP, its largest since 2022. “Japan's fiscal deficit is estimated to more than triple, from -0.7% to -2.5% of GDP” Open the post The global debt crisis is set to get even worse:… · 13 Oct
- TKThe Kobeissi LetterSharply improving on US Expects the US fiscal deficit to widen to -6.1% of GDP in 2027, the largest among major developed economies. “The US fiscal deficit is projected to widen to -6.1% of GDP in 2027, its largest since 2012” Open the post The global debt crisis is set to get even worse:… · 13 Oct
- TKThe Kobeissi LetterSharply improving on Germany Expects Germany's deficit to widen from -2.7% of GDP in 2025 to -4.1% in 2027, its largest since 2010. “Germany's deficit is expected to widen from -2.7% of GDP in 2025 to -4.1% in 2027” Open the post The global debt crisis is set to get even worse:… · 13 Oct
- TKThe Kobeissi LetterWorsening on UK Expects the UK to be the only major economy to improve its fiscal position, with the deficit narrowing from -4.3% in 2025 to -3.1% of GDP next year. “The UK is the only economy expected to improve its fiscal position, with its deficit narrowing from -4.3% in 2025, to -3.1% of GDP next year” Open the post The global debt crisis is set to get even worse:… · 13 Oct
- TKThe Kobeissi LetterImproving on France Expects France's budget gap to widen to -5.2% of GDP. “France's budget gap is projected to widen to -5.2%” Open the post The global debt crisis is set to get even worse:… · 13 Oct
- TKThe Kobeissi LetterSharply rising on deficit spending Expects deficit spending to keep accelerating. “Deficit spending is only accelerating.” Open the post The global debt crisis is set to get even worse:… · 13 Oct
- TKThe Kobeissi LetterCheap on 10Y Treasuries Expects 10Y Treasuries to be more attractive than the S&P 500 on a yield basis, given the negative equity risk premium. “on a yield basis, theoretically less risky 10Y Treasuries are now more attractive than the S&P 500” Open the post We are witnessing a historic shift. The annual … · 12 Oct
Their output
76 this weekStories it travels in
i
The stories
- ○ a voice, on the left
- ◌ a voice raising half of these
- ● a subject, on the right, under its story
- ⌒ a line is a voice raising a subject — thicker, more items; colour is the story
The stories this entity travels in: on the right, each story with the subjects seen alongside it; on the left, the voices that raised them, and a line for every subject a voice raised, bundled by story. Tap a voice to light everything it raises, a subject for who raised it, a story for its own lines. The crumb goes back.
Who brings it up
Nobody in this window.
What they talk about
- US 32 items
- S&P 500 13 items
- Donald J. Trump 11 items
- AI 7 items
- Russia 7 items
- energy 6 items
- Ukraine 6 items
- CPI inflation 5 items
See what your own voices say about The Kobeissi Letter, every morning.
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